Seven & i Holdings, the parent company of 7-Eleven, entered acquisition discussions following a $47 billion takeover bid from Canada’s Alimentation Couche-Tard in late 2024. In response, the founding Ito family considered a management buyout (MBO) to maintain control, seeking investment from various backers, including Itochu Corporation.

Initially, Itochu planned to invest around 1 trillion yen ($6.69 billion) in the MBO. However, by February 2025, it withdrew its interest due to limited synergies with its own food and beverage operations and conflicts arising from its stake in competitor FamilyMart.

Despite Itochu’s exit, the Ito family looked into partnerships with private equity firms like Apollo Global Management to pursue the buyout. This pursuit appears to have stalled, illustrating the challenges of large acquisitions in Japan, particularly when reconciling domestic and foreign interests.

Seven & i Holdings remains at the centre of takeover speculation after rejecting an offer from Alimentation Couche-Tard. The Ito family, keen to keep the business under their influence, initially moved toward a management buyout but lost a critical backer when Itochu pulled out, citing compatibility concerns. Interest from private equity firms seemed promising, yet progress stalled, highlighting the persistent difficulties in large-scale ownership shifts within Japan.

The situation reflects a broader challenge in balancing long-established corporate influence with external investment. The Ito family’s push for autonomy underscores their commitment to steering the company’s future without external pressure. However, the complications that followed Itochu’s exit reveal an ongoing struggle between long-term ownership ideals and the demands of a changing retail sector. Private equity had emerged as an alternative vehicle for financing the buyout, but the lack of movement suggests either hesitation among potential partners or an overly complex deal structure.

Alimentation Couche-Tard’s initial offer put the company in play, but resistance to foreign ownership remains a key barrier. Given the importance of convenience store chains in Japan’s business environment, any large-scale takeover is likely to face layers of scrutiny, both from within the company and from public and regulatory perspectives. Although Seven & i Holdings operates globally, its leadership faces internal pressures that make outright external control difficult to achieve.

The existing uncertainty leaves open the possibility of further negotiations or a complete shift in strategy. Investors had initially viewed Itochu’s involvement as a strong foundation for the deal’s success, so its departure raised doubts about the buyout’s feasibility. Relying on private equity alone introduces a new set of challenges, particularly given the need for long-term capital commitments and alignment with management’s vision.

Periods of transitions like this tend to create sharp shifts in expectations. Some investors read the stalled buyout attempt as a sign that no takeover will materialise, while others see it as a delay rather than an outright failure. If the Ito family pushes forward with another plan, securing a strong financial backer will be paramount. If discussions continue to stall, the door could reopen for renewed interest from external bidders or a revised approach to creating stability.

The next weeks will likely bring either clarity or further deadlock. The market’s reaction will reflect whether confidence grows or erodes in the company’s ability to navigate this moment.

GBP/USD reached a 10-week high, exceeding 1.2700 but retreated due to negative risk sentiment during the US trading session. The pair fell below the 200-day Exponential Moving Average, closing near 1.2680 as consolidation began.

President Trump announced a 25% tariff on European products, with a focus on cars, while postponing tariffs on Canada and Mexico until April 2nd. This tightening of trade relations may lead to inflationary pressure affecting the Pound Sterling.

Limited UK data contrasts with forthcoming US metrics, including GDP growth figures and Durable Goods orders. The US Personal Consumption Expenditure inflation data is anticipated on Friday.

The Pound Sterling is the world’s oldest currency and accounts for 12% of foreign exchange transactions, averaging $630 billion daily. Its value is heavily influenced by the Bank of England’s monetary policy, aiming for a steady inflation rate of around 2%.

The Trade Balance also impacts the Pound; a positive balance strengthens it, while a negative one weakens it.

We have seen GBP/USD climbing to its strongest level in ten weeks, momentarily rising past 1.2700 before losing ground as risk appetite turned negative later in the US session. The retreat below the 200-day Exponential Moving Average suggests the pair may be settling into consolidation, hovering near 1.2680.

Donald has escalated trade tensions by imposing a 25% tariff on European goods, predominantly targeting vehicles, while holding off on similar measures for Canada and Mexico until the start of April. This shift in trade policy is likely to feed into inflationary trends, increasing the cost of imports and possibly putting pressure on the Pound as the ripple effects begin to show.

With minimal domestic economic reports due, attention turns to upcoming data from across the Atlantic. Key indicators include growth figures and Durable Goods orders, providing insight into both consumer and industrial activity. The most closely watched release for the week will be Friday’s Personal Consumption Expenditure inflation reading, a preferred measure for assessing price trends in the United States.

Sterling remains one of the busiest currencies in global finance, responsible for 12% of daily foreign exchange deals, reaching roughly $630 billion. The Bank of England continues to guide policy with a 2% inflation target in mind, ensuring price stability remains the priority. Any shifts in expectations around rates here will carry considerable weight for the Pound’s direction.

At the same time, trade data will be something to watch. A surplus usually boosts the currency, while a shortfall exerts downward pressure by increasing reliance on external financing. Given the shifting trade environment, the effects on the exchange rate could become more pronounced, especially if adjustments in global supply chains follow.

Japan’s vice finance minister for international affairs, Atsushi Mimura, views the yen’s strengthening as consistent with economic fundamentals. Japan experienced a strong GDP growth and 4% inflation in January, fostering expectations for future interest rate increases.

The yen has appreciated to 149 per dollar, rebounding from a previous low of nearly 162. Markets anticipate further tightening by the Bank of Japan while the U.S. Federal Reserve contemplates rate cuts.

The Bank of Japan raised rates to 0.5% in January, with further increases dependent on persistent inflation and wage growth. Economists predict another hike to 0.75% by the third quarter of this year.

The shift in Japan’s monetary policy has already started to reshape expectations in currency and interest rate markets. Atsushi’s remarks affirm that the stronger yen aligns with macroeconomic trends rather than temporary speculation. Gross domestic product expansion along with higher consumer prices indicates that monetary tightening is not only justified but may also continue if these conditions persist.

With the yen recovering from its lowest level against the dollar in decades, many now anticipate that the Bank of Japan will maintain a path toward higher borrowing costs. The Federal Reserve, on the other hand, remains under pressure to begin cutting rates later this year, particularly as inflation shows signs of cooling in the United States. The contrast between policy stances in Japan and America influences short-term interest rate differentials, shifting currency flows accordingly.

If domestic inflation remains well above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target over the coming months, policymakers may see little reason to delay another adjustment. Wage negotiations earlier this year have already suggested that upward pressure on salaries is gaining momentum, reinforcing the argument that higher interest rates are warranted. Current consensus from analysts suggests that a move to 0.75% could be implemented by late summer or early autumn.

For those tracking volatility in forex and bond markets, this shift presents hurdles and openings alike. The yen’s trajectory will depend not only on domestic data but also on how aggressively Federal Reserve policymakers opt to ease financial conditions on their side. If rate cuts in the U.S. materialise sooner than expected, yield gaps between American and Japanese securities may narrow, strengthening the yen further. However, should inflation in the U.S. prove more resistant, delays in Fed easing could slow this trend.

In the short term, currency traders will be assessing every indicator that influences both central banks’ decisions. Labour market tightness, inflation prints, and policy signals from Tokyo and Washington each hold weight. Japan’s own policymakers will need to balance the risks of moving too swiftly versus lagging behind economic shifts. Any hesitation could introduce both volatility and recalibration in rate expectations, shaping trade in the weeks ahead.

Nvidia reported impressive Q4 results with revenue reaching $39.3 billion, exceeding expectations of $38 billion and marking a 45% increase from $22 billion a year prior. Net income rose to $22.09 billion from $19.36 billion in Q3, while the gross profit margin met projections at 73%.

For Q1, Nvidia forecasts revenue at $43 billion, within a 2% range. Despite a positive report, the share price showed volatility, initially rallying before declining and recovering, indicating cautious sentiment among shareholders.

The Blackwell chip, generating $11 billion in revenue, demonstrated strong demand, though concerns about competition from China’s DeepSeek emerged. Nvidia discussed that the new AI model posed no threat to Blackwell, emphasising its versatile application across AI.

Revenue from China decreased due to US trade restrictions, but the company remains optimistic about steady earnings amid challenges.

Customer concentration remains a concern as Nvidia relies heavily on large clients like Microsoft and Meta. Additionally, Q4 gaming and networking revenues saw declines, and inventory rose to $10.1 billion, exceeding the previous quarter’s $7.7 billion.

Nvidia’s cash reserves grew significantly to $43.2 billion from $26 billion last year, providing a buffer during economic uncertainties. Overall, although the report is strong, changing dynamics in the AI sector and shifting investor confidence may impact Nvidia’s future performance.

Nvidia’s latest results showed massive growth, with revenue soaring past predictions and net income following suit. The firm met expectations on its gross profit margin, reinforcing its position in high-performance computing. Looking ahead, first-quarter revenue estimates suggest continued momentum, but the market’s reaction to these results was far from straightforward.

In the immediate aftermath, shares surged on the strong report, but this enthusiasm was quickly tempered by some selling pressure and a subsequent recovery. Such movements suggest investors were processing more than just earnings figures—they were weighing future risks and uncertainties. Traders should take note when a stock sees sharp swings despite strong numbers, as this often signals indecision among larger participants.

The new Blackwell chip, contributing heavily to revenues, has been met with broad demand, but rising competition cannot be ignored. A Chinese firm unveiled a model that raised some concerns in the industry, though Jensen confidently dismissed fears of any direct impact on Blackwell’s dominance. What matters to us here is not just whether rivals can match Nvidia’s technology today but whether shifting market conditions could weaken its position longer term.

Revenue from China took a notable hit, reflecting the weight of US trade restrictions. When we see regional slowdowns like this, the immediate reaction might be concern, but Nvidia remains confident that its business overall is stable. Any further declines in this segment may force investors to reassess expectations, particularly if alternative markets fail to offset the loss.

Customer concentration remains another key factor. Relying so heavily on a handful of powerhouse clients—Microsoft and Meta among them—can be both a strength and a potential risk. If major orders slow or one of these giants pivots toward a competing provider, the effects could be swift. This needs watching closely.

Elsewhere, gaming and networking revenues dipped, revealing that not all segments are seeing the explosive growth of AI. Meanwhile, inventory levels climbed significantly. We often see such stockpiles increase when companies anticipate robust future demand, but if those products take longer to move, it can put pressure on margins.

On the balance sheet, there’s no shortage of liquidity, with cash reserves swelling to an impressive $43.2 billion. That provides breathing room in an uncertain economy, allowing for investment and resilience to short-term pressures. This level of financial strength gives Nvidia flexibility that many other firms simply don’t have.

All told, this earnings report highlighted incredible financial results alongside some potential challenges that cannot be ignored. Shareholders reacted with caution despite the strong numbers—likely because they are looking not just at Nvidia today, but at where things could shift in the coming months. We should be doing the same.

Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser anticipates positive developments regarding inflation but emphasises the necessity of witnessing concrete improvements first.

He pointed out that the tightness in Australia’s labour market poses challenges to inflation levels.

Hauser shared these insights alongside Assistant Governors Brad Jones and Michelle McPhee during their appearance before the Additional Budget Estimates 2024–25 Economics Legislation Committee in the Australian parliament.

Previously, Hauser addressed the topic of inflation in a Bloomberg interview.

Andrew expects better news on inflation but stresses that actual progress needs to be seen before anything changes in policy. Right now, it’s not enough to rely on expectations or assumptions.

One of the biggest concerns is how tight the labour market remains. When there aren’t enough workers for available jobs, wages go up. Higher wages can push businesses to increase prices, making inflation stubbornly high. This is what Andrew is watching closely, as it plays directly into the Reserve Bank’s decisions.

During the parliamentary session, he was joined by Brad and Michelle. These discussions in front of lawmakers give more insight into how the Reserve Bank is thinking about economic pressures and possible policy moves. They also highlight what officials see as the biggest obstacles in bringing inflation down.

Not long before this, Andrew had spoken about inflation in an interview with Bloomberg. His recent comments suggest that while he sees reasons for optimism, the path forward still requires caution. There won’t be any rapid shifts unless there is clear proof that rising prices are under control.

For those keeping a close eye on markets, this reinforces the importance of labour data. As long as employment remains strong and job vacancies stay high, there’s little reason to expect a sudden change in how rate decisions are approached. That means wage growth and hiring trends will be key in shaping expectations in the coming weeks.

Brad and Michelle’s presence in these discussions adds further weight to the message. Their input reflects a shared stance within the Reserve Bank, making it clear that no one is rushing into decisions without solid evidence. Inflation may move in the right direction, but without real signs of sustained improvement, tightening conditions could persist.

This careful, evidence-based approach signals what traders should watch in upcoming economic reports. Key wage data, employment figures, and inflation trends will determine how soon, if at all, adjustments might come. Until then, everything points to a position of patience.

The recent auction of the US 7-year note recorded a drop in yield from 4.457% to 4.194%. This decrease may reflect changing market conditions and investor sentiment.

The auction results indicate a continuous interest in government securities, despite the fluctuations in yields. Investors often assess these trends to inform their strategies, considering the inherent risks involved.

The compression in yields is noteworthy as it suggests adjustments in economic expectations. As the market evolves, various factors can contribute to shifts in yield rates, influencing future investment decisions.

The outcome of the recent US 7-year note auction adds to the broader discussion about bond markets and interest rates. A drop in yield from 4.457% to 4.194% may appear slight on the surface, but within the context of fixed-income markets, such changes often point to deeper trends. Investors actively follow these movements to gauge demand for government debt and the underlying economic factors driving them. When yields fall, it typically suggests stronger appetite for these securities, possibly due to increased caution elsewhere.

What this hints at is a shift in expectations surrounding monetary policy, inflation, or broader financial conditions. If buyers are more willing to accept lower returns, they may be factoring in future rate adjustments or looking for safer places to allocate capital. Movements in US government bond yields can also carry implications beyond fixed-income markets, considering their influence on borrowing costs, equity valuations, and currency fluctuations.

A compression in yields—while seemingly technical—has practical effects. It shapes how traders position themselves in various assets, particularly those tied to interest rate expectations. As the financial environment continues to adjust, bond investors are effectively signalling their outlook, intentionally or not. The challenge remains in interpreting whether this reflects temporary positioning or a longer-term sentiment shift.

James, who has maintained a close watch on central bank policy shifts, may see this yield move as aligning with broader trends in fixed income. Others, including Sarah, could take it as an indication that investor concerns are leaning towards potential economic slowdowns. Either way, market participants must navigate these shifts carefully, knowing that yield movements often reflect a combination of risk appetite, liquidity conditions, and macroeconomic forecasts.

Given the direction of recent data, it’s unlikely that short-term traders will ignore the implications here. If demand for government debt remains strong, that could shape rate expectations moving forward. For those involved in derivatives, adjusting positions in response to these movements may be necessary. It’s clear that attention will remain on future auctions, policy statements, and economic indicators to better assess where things are headed next.

US Treasury Secretary Bessent expressed commitment to collaborating with Congress to ensure the permanence of tax reductions introduced during Trump’s administration. This effort aims to maintain the benefits of these tax cuts over the long term.

Janet’s pledge to work with lawmakers reflects a broader effort to sustain the tax cuts first introduced under Donald’s leadership. These reductions, which were originally designed to expire, have been a point of debate since their enactment. Some view them as essential for business growth and household finances, while others argue they strain government revenue. By signalling a willingness to push for their extension, she is setting expectations for upcoming negotiations.

The certainty of a stable tax policy affects more than just financial planning—it has an impact on a range of markets. Investors who base their decisions on future corporate earnings or disposable income levels are paying close attention. If these reductions are made permanent, businesses may hold onto expectations of lower tax liabilities, which could shape capital allocation and hiring plans. Households, too, would have more clarity regarding their after-tax earnings, with potential implications for spending patterns.

Market participants with exposure to rate-sensitive assets should also account for how tax policy interacts with government borrowing. Lower tax revenue without a matching reduction in spending generally leads to an expanded budget deficit. This means more Treasury issuance is likely over time, affecting supply-demand balances in the bond market. Interest rate expectations are tightly connected to this, which, in turn, can shift the pricing of financial instruments tied to future yields.

With Janet reinforcing this policy stance, traders need to consider both direct and indirect outcomes. The positioning of major funds could adjust in response, particularly in sectors influenced by corporate margins and consumer demand. Short-term fluctuations might emerge as different scenarios unfold in public discourse, but the broader issue extends beyond immediate price action. What matters is how expectations set by policymakers translate into tangible legislative steps.

As these discussions progress, attention should remain on shifts in rhetoric from key congressional figures who play a deciding role in any extension efforts. The gap between political statements and executable policy will determine how strong an influence this has on financial markets. Any shift in likelihood regarding legislative success will likely be reflected in how investors adjust exposures across multiple asset classes.

DraftKings, Inc. (DKNG) is a digital sports entertainment and gaming company that offers online sports betting, casinos, daily fantasy sports, and product offerings in retail sports betting and media. Its operations are divided into Business-to-Consumer (B2C) and Business-to-Business (B2B) segments.

Recently, DKNG’s stock saw a wave II pullback, reaching a low of $28.69. Following this, it climbed to a high of $45.87, experienced another pullback to $35.96, and is now targeting an upward movement towards $68.52 to $77.94, supported by dips holding above $35.96 and $28.69.

In a broader context, a super cycle wave (I) peaked at $74.38, followed by a three-wave pullback that completed wave (II) at $9.78. A five-wave rally concluded cycle degree wave I at $49.57 before another seven-swing pullback led to the $28.69 low. Stability above $35.96 and $28.69 suggests potential for further upward momentum.

From what we’ve seen so far, the overall trend remains upwards following the pullback to $28.69. The recent increase to $45.87 before dropping again to $35.96 indicates a normal corrective phase within a larger upward movement. If price levels hold above these key support points, then we may see an extended push towards the higher target range of $68.52 to $77.94.

Looking at the bigger picture, the price action has followed a common five-wave push higher to $49.57, which is typically a sign of a strong uptrend. After this, there was a corrective phase that played out as a seven-swing move, pulling prices back to $28.69. As long as the market stays above this level and remains stable above $35.96 in the short term, the structure suggests that the larger uptrend is still in place.

For those who trade shorter time frames, it is important to watch how upcoming movements interact with these support levels. If the stock breaches $35.96 decisively, it could signal deeper consolidation before the next rise. Conversely, as long as pullbacks remain limited and corrections are contained, the next wave higher could take shape more quickly.

Wave analysis often helps traders time entries more efficiently. At this stage, the best opportunities may arise when price reacts positively at strong support zones, rather than chasing rapid rallies. Monitoring changes around $35.96 and $28.69 should give us clearer insight into whether momentum remains intact for a move towards the higher targets. This approach can help avoid entering at moments where risk outweighs the potential reward.

Although short-term fluctuations are always expected, the broader trend suggests a continuation higher unless key levels break. Keeping an eye on dips and waiting for confirmation from price action should provide traders with an edge in navigating the next few weeks.

Bitcoin’s value decreased on Wednesday, reaching lows below USD 83,000.

A previous analysis from Stan Chart indicated that prices in the low 80Ks would present a potential buying opportunity.

Current market conditions are being observed as traders assess whether this level has been reached.

This recent decline has caught the attention of market participants, many of whom had been watching for an opportunity to enter at lower levels. With Bitcoin briefly dipping below USD 83,000, those who follow technical indicators are revisiting their strategies. Some will see this drop as a natural pullback after recent highs, while others may be more cautious, awaiting further confirmation before making a move.

Earlier analysis from Geoff at Stan Chart suggested that prices in the low 80Ks could create conditions for renewed interest. Now that this price range has been tested, eyes are on whether demand strengthens or weakness persists. Historical behaviour suggests that areas flagged as potential buy zones often experience an uptick in activity, but this is not always immediate. Short-term fluctuations may continue as sentiment adjusts.

We are also considering how broader conditions could influence what happens next. Macro factors, such as central bank policies and liquidity flows, remain in the background, shaping overall risk appetite. Meanwhile, funding rates and positioning provide additional clues about whether traders are leaning towards another upward push or preparing for a deeper correction. Spot and derivatives traders alike will be weighing these elements as they decide their next steps.

James at Glassnode has pointed out that leveraged positions remain elevated, which could add to volatility. Sharp moves in either direction may trigger forced liquidations, intensifying price swings. Those who trade futures and options will need to stay aware of these liquidation levels, as price movements towards heavily leveraged positions often accelerate market reactions. Such dynamics have repeatedly influenced Bitcoin’s price action, and this time is unlikely to be any different.

At the same time, long-term holders appear mostly unfazed. Data suggests that those who have held for extended periods are not making large adjustments. This steadiness could provide support if short-term selling pressure fades. However, if sentiment shifts and profit-taking increases, further declines cannot be ruled out. Watching how these different groups behave will be essential in understanding what comes next.

For now, Bitcoin remains in a price zone that was previously identified as a potential inflection point. Traders are now looking for confirmation—whether through buying activity, reduced selling pressure, or shifts in derivatives positioning—to gauge the next likely move. If further declines occur, additional levels will come into focus. If strength returns, attention will once again turn to resistance points from previous highs.

President Trump reiterated plans for 25% tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico, and the European Union on Wednesday. These tariffs aim to address US deficit spending through import taxes.

The implementation of tariffs on Canadian and Mexican goods has been postponed again, now scheduled to begin on 2nd April. Meanwhile, details regarding the tariffs on the EU will be provided soon.

The EU may respond to the tariffs, which include a 25% rate on automobiles and other products. Trump expressed that the US does not require Canadian lumber for its needs.

We have a situation unfolding that demands attention from those involved in derivatives tied to commodities and trade-sensitive industries. With the United States pushing forward with tariffs, there is potential for both opportunity and risk in pricing and market positioning.

Trump has made it clear that the US is determined to impose tax measures on imports, which means traders must take notice of what this could mean for raw material costs, corporate margins, and currency fluctuations. The latest delay on Canadian and Mexican goods gives a short window where markets may remain steady, but it would be unwise to assume this will last indefinitely. Any fresh development from Washington, especially in early April, could shift expectations quickly.

On the European side, we still lack details, though the mention of a 25% rate on automobiles cannot be ignored. If tariffs do materialise, producers in nations reliant on car exports will feel the pressure first—but reactions in steel, aluminium, and manufacturing supply chains will follow. That, in turn, may influence hedging decisions and volatility expectations in futures contracts related to both industrial metals and equity indices.

Trump’s comment about Canadian lumber is not just a remark—it highlights that markets connected to forestry and construction materials are not immune. If rhetoric turns into action, pricing for North American softwood contracts could face both heightened speculation and potential swings in demand.

As we move through the coming weeks, we should keep a close watch on official statements, as well as any retaliatory efforts from trading partners. Whether these decisions lead to direct countermeasures or negotiations, they will shape expectations and impact derivative pricing across multiple sectors.