Major US indices closed mixed on February 26, 2025. Nvidia is expected to announce earnings later, while Axios reported that Trump plans to continue tariffs on Canada and Mexico next week.

Deutsche Bank altered its longstanding bearish stance on the euro. Crude oil prices decreased by $0.31, settling at $68.62, and Bitcoin reached its lowest level since November 11.

The US sold 7-year notes at a rate of 4.194%, which was slightly below expectations. Fed’s Bostic mentioned ongoing high inflation, though some progress has been made on the issue.

Japan’s top FX diplomat observed no disparity in currency fluctuations, while the UK’s BOE’s Dhingra noted a decline in factors driving trade expansion. US crude oil inventory data showed a drawdown of -2332K against an expected build of 2605K. January’s new home sales came in at 657K, falling short of the anticipated 680K.

In the forex market, EURUSD has seen a ceiling between 1.0527 and 1.0532, with current prices near its 200-hour moving average of 1.0472. GBPUSD fluctuated around its 100-day moving average at 1.2847 and reached a peak of 1.2715 today. USDJPY is trading around 149.10, showing a potential short-term downside bias.

Overall, economic data was limited, yet notable trading activity in equities and currencies was observed, with developments anticipated in the near future.

Nvidia’s earnings report later today could inject momentum into equities, particularly tech stocks, after a mixed session across major US indices. Market participants will be attentive to guidance, as recent trading activity suggests high sensitivity to earnings surprises. Meanwhile, the Axios report regarding Trump’s planned extension of tariffs on Canada and Mexico adds another layer of uncertainty. The implications for trade-sensitive sectors could surface as early as next week, prompting adjustments in positioning.

Shifting to forex, the change in Deutsche Bank’s outlook on the euro breaks from its previous bearish view. That alone carries weight. If institutional sentiment tilts further towards the shared currency, retracement from recent lows isn’t out of the question, especially with EURUSD already showing resilience near key levels. Meanwhile, sterling remains locked near its 100-day moving average. With little in the way of fresh catalysts from the Bank of England today, short-term traders may continue using technical levels to guide positioning.

Energy markets reacted to today’s crude oil inventory data, which showed an unexpected drawdown against expectations. Prices pulled back slightly, settling at $68.62 per barrel. The divergence between forecasts and actual figures introduces further short-term volatility risks. Long positions had already been shaken by broader macroeconomic concerns, and unless fresh demand-side indications counterbalance today’s decline, bearish pressure may persist.

In fixed income, a weaker-than-expected auction for 7-year notes suggests ongoing hesitation among buyers. The awarded rate of 4.194% came in just below market expectations, reinforcing the theme of cautious sentiment towards duration risk. Raphael’s remarks on inflation add to that hesitancy. While he acknowledged progress, the persistence of high price levels means the Fed remains wary. That, in turn, feeds into rate expectations, keeping bond yields in focus.

Japan’s top FX official signalling no concerns over currency movements leaves room for Yen traders to focus more on technical and rate-differential factors. With the pair hovering near 149.10, momentum has been tilting lower, and unless a policy shift emerges from policymakers in Tokyo, downward excursions could continue. In contrast, GBPUSD’s intraday peak of 1.2715 reflects pockets of sterling demand. Still, sustained upward movement remains constrained by external macroeconomic pressures.

On the equities side, broad movement remained contained, largely due to limited economic releases. However, attention is set to shift towards Nvidia’s numbers shortly. Positioning ahead of the announcement suggests traders are anticipating volatility, particularly given the broader pullback in crypto markets, with Bitcoin slipping to its weakest level since November. Tech-heavy portfolios will need to be mindful of further risk shifts should any misalignment with expectations emerge.

Taken together, financial markets are responding in a measured yet reactive manner to today’s developments. Liquidity remains well-distributed across asset classes, though certain sectors are moving with more conviction. That balance may soon tilt, depending on upcoming corporate releases, shifting central bank rhetoric, and fresh economic figures in the days ahead.

Swati Dhingra from the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee stated that central bank policies have limited effectiveness against trade-based supply shocks affecting prices. She emphasised that monetary measures alone cannot adequately manage price impacts in sectors like energy and food.

In a scenario where the world economy fragments cautiously, a response from monetary policy may not be necessary. The need for an independent monetary authority with a clear inflation target increases when external supply shocks are more common.

US tariffs are anticipated to strengthen the US Dollar, which could temporarily raise prices in the UK. However, the direct impact on UK inflation from US import costs and the stronger Dollar is likely to be neutralised by decreased global price pressures.

Swati’s comments bring attention to an issue we have observed over time: monetary tools do not work well when price changes are driven by supply disruptions rather than demand. Interest rate adjustments cannot create more oil or grain, so economic policymakers must focus on managing inflation expectations rather than attempting to directly offset cost increases in these areas.

If trade tensions cause world economies to separate but in a measured manner, sudden policy shifts might not be required. However, frequent supply disturbances make a clear inflation mandate even more valuable. When external shocks cannot be controlled through rate changes alone, investors should be mindful that inflation expectations could remain more volatile, impacting longer-term rate decisions.

With US import duties on the rise, the Dollar is expected to gain strength. This could push prices higher in Britain for a short period, particularly for goods priced in Dollars. However, broader inflation effects should balance out as reduced global demand weighs on input costs. For traders watching derivatives, this means positioning should account for near-term currency movements but also recognise that the longer-term inflation impact may not be as straightforward. Understanding where price changes come from helps in anticipating whether central banks will act—or if they will maintain their stance and wait for external pressures to ease.

The upcoming session features light data from New Zealand followed by data from Australia. The Australian capital expenditure figures will contribute to the fourth quarter GDP report, which is expected to be released next week on Wednesday, 5 March.

The next batch of data is relatively quiet at first, with only a few releases from New Zealand before things pick up in Australia. The capital expenditure report from Australia will be closely watched, as it feeds directly into the fourth-quarter GDP numbers. These figures, set to be published next Wednesday, 5 March, will provide a clearer view of how the economy performed in the final months of last year.

Markets are already positioning themselves for this release, as it will play a key role in shaping expectations for monetary policy. If investment spending has grown at a steady pace, it could suggest that businesses remain confident despite higher interest rates. On the other hand, a weak reading might raise concerns about economic momentum heading into the new year.

Beyond Australia, attention will gradually shift to broader themes that have been steering market sentiment in recent weeks. Inflation expectations remain an important factor, especially as traders weigh how central banks will interpret incoming data. Recent comments from policymakers suggest that they are staying cautious, particularly with wage growth and consumer demand still under review.

As the week unfolds, price movements will likely reflect shifting views on when and how interest rate adjustments could happen. Some traders are starting to reassess their positions ahead of next week’s key events, balancing short-term reactions with longer-term trends. Adjustments in expectations tend to unfold quickly, making it vital to react with both speed and precision.

With all this in mind, the lead-up to next Wednesday promises to be anything but dull.

EUR/USD is experiencing difficulties, retreating after failing to surpass the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) for a third time, suggesting a loss of bullish momentum. Sellers are regaining control, indicating a potential change in the overall trend.

Technical indicators show decreasing momentum, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) declining while still in positive territory. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram remains flat, suggesting weak directional strength.

Attention is on the potential convergence of the 100-day and 20-day SMAs, which may lead to a bearish crossover. A break below the 20-day SMA at approximately 1.0450 could heighten downside risks.

What we are observing is a weakening bullish push, as shown by the repeated inability to break past the 100-day SMA. When a key resistance level rejects price action multiple times, it usually indicates that buying pressure is diminishing, giving sellers more control. With support levels now in focus, traders should be paying close attention to whether the 20-day SMA holds or gives way.

Momentum indicators are not showing much strength in either direction. The RSI is moving lower, but it remains above the midpoint, meaning bearish pressure is increasing, though not overwhelmingly so. Meanwhile, the MACD histogram staying flat reflects a lack of enthusiasm from both bulls and bears. This often happens when markets struggle to find direction after an extended period of uncertainty.

One upcoming technical event that might influence decision-making is the possible crossover between the 100-day and 20-day SMAs. If the shorter-term moving average moves beneath the longer-term one, we would normally expect further downside pressure to gain traction. That is why the 1.0450 level carries weight; falling below it could see momentum shift firmly to the downside, potentially setting up a deeper pullback.

In the near term, traders should be attentive to whether selling pressure continues building or if buyers can regain control. If support holds, we might see another attempt to break higher, but for now, the evidence leans in favour of further losses. The market is hesitating, which often precedes a larger move, meaning quick adjustments to strategy might be required depending on how price developments unfold.

In January, Russia’s industrial output was reported at 2.2%, falling short of the anticipated 4.2%. This statistic suggests a weaker performance in the sector than forecasted.

Separate reports indicate that AUD/USD is consolidating around the 0.6300 mark, impacted by a softer Australian CPI and concerns over tariff plans. Meanwhile, USD/JPY remains near its year-to-date low, struggling under firm expectations of interest rate hikes from the Bank of Japan.

Gold prices hold steady above $2,900 as trade tensions and economic uncertainties drive demand for safe-haven assets. Additionally, a decline in meme tokens has been observed amid shifts in market focus.

European February inflation is expected to decrease sharply in France, while stability prevails in the wider Eurozone, despite ongoing price increases in services.

A weaker-than-expected industrial output figure for Russia at 2.2%, rather than the forecasted 4.2%, signals that production has not expanded as quickly as analysts had predicted. This could suggest subdued domestic demand or potential supply-side challenges. For those involved in the derivatives market, a shortfall of this nature often factors into currency movements and commodity pricing, particularly when gauging broader economic strength.

Looking elsewhere, the Australian dollar is currently moving sideways near 0.6300 against the US dollar, with traders keeping a close eye on inflation data and possible tariff-related adjustments. A softer CPI reading has tempered expectations for tighter monetary policy, leaving the currency without a clear directional push. Given this, those tracking price movements in the pair should remain attentive to any shifts in commodity prices, as Australia’s export-driven economy ties directly to those figures.

Meanwhile, the yen is lingering near its lowest levels so far this year as markets price in the likelihood of future interest rate hikes from Japan’s central bank. This has kept Japanese assets in focus, especially with traders anticipating that policy adjustments could alter market positioning. Any further reinforcement of these expectations could continue to weigh on the currency in the coming sessions.

Gold remains firmly above $2,900, buoyed by ongoing economic uncertainty and trade-related anxieties, which have reinforced its status as a preferred store of value. With volatility in equities and global trade risks still in play, its strength reflects prevailing investor caution. Any developments that heighten economic worries could provide further support, while a move in the opposite direction might suppress demand.

The downturn in meme-based tokens highlights shifting interests across digital markets. These assets, often driven by sentiment rather than fundamentals, have fallen out of favour lately, likely as liquidity seeks more sustainable opportunities. For traders navigating this space, understanding where capital is rotating remains key.

On the inflation front, a sharp decline is expected in France’s February reading, contrasting with a more stable picture across the broader Eurozone. Although services inflation remains elevated, overall price pressures are not seeing drastic moves. This relative steadiness suggests that while cost increases persist in specific areas, there is no immediate sign of runaway inflation across the region. Any deviation from these forecasts could prompt adjustments in interest rate expectations, particularly within European financial markets.

Nvidia reported a fourth-quarter adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of 89 cents, surpassing the expected 84 cents. Revenue for the quarter reached $39.33 billion, exceeding estimates of $38.25 billion, with an adjusted gross margin of 73.5%, matching forecasts.

Data centre revenue totalled $35.6 billion, above the expected $34.09 billion. The company anticipates first-quarter revenue of approximately $43 billion, with an adjusted gross margin projected between 70.5% and 71.5%.

Gaming revenue was recorded at $2.5 billion, falling short of the estimated $3.02 billion. The networking segment generated $3.02 billion, less than the forecast of $3.51 billion.

That earnings beat was not a minor one. Profits outpaced analyst forecasts, and revenue followed suit. The adjusted gross margin did not disappoint—it aligned exactly with predictions. These figures paint a clear picture of where the company stands after the latest quarter. But the details matter more than just the overall numbers.

The data centre division, the core engine of the company’s expansion, delivered better-than-expected results. That division alone produced $35.6 billion, comfortably above the market’s anticipated $34.09 billion. It confirms what many already understood—growth in artificial intelligence remains relentless. The demand is not just steady, it is increasing at a rapid pace.

Looking ahead, leadership expects around $43 billion in revenue next quarter. If that materialises, it marks another leap forward. There is confidence in maintaining strong profitability as well, with gross margins projected between 70.5% and 71.5%. These forecasts are not built on optimism alone; they reflect sustained demand from clients who continue to invest in computing power at scale.

However, not every segment performed as well. Gaming revenue disappointed, landing at $2.5 billion when $3.02 billion was expected. The networking segment failed to meet forecasts, bringing in $3.02 billion rather than the projected $3.51 billion. Those areas did not see the same levels of demand growth, and that matters, even if they are not the main drivers anymore.

From this report, two things become clear. Some parts of the business remain strong, while others did not reach expectations. That contrast should not be ignored. In the coming weeks, markets will react in a way that rewards what is working and punishes what is not. It will not be a simple case of rising or falling in one direction. Some areas are thriving, some are lagging, and that division within the business should shape thinking going forward.

The US Dollar began a slight recovery on Wednesday, although the Dollar Index (DXY) remains close to its yearly lows around 106.50. This comes as traders react to upcoming tariffs from President Trump and increasing expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts.

Recent data showed New Home Sales fell to 0.657 million units in January, below the anticipated 0.68 million. The CME FedWatch tool indicates a 66.2% chance of an interest rate cut by June, with US 10-year yields down to approximately 4.31%.

Technically, if the DXY fails to reclaim the 106.52 level, it may decline towards 105.89 or 105.33. Conversely, a recovery above 106.52 could target 106.71 and 107.35 as key resistance levels.

What we are seeing with the US dollar is a modest attempt to recover, but the Dollar Index remains pinned near its lowest levels this year. The recent dip in new home sales suggests that economic momentum might not be as strong as some had hoped. With the market’s eyes on potential Federal Reserve rate adjustments, bets on a cut as early as June continue to build. The US 10-year yield slipping to around 4.31% only adds to this sentiment.

Looking at the numbers, if the index cannot hold above 106.52, declines toward 105.89 and possibly even 105.33 could follow. On the flip side, if it manages to push beyond that threshold, resistance levels at 106.71 and then 107.35 might come into play. Markets will no doubt respond to shifts in interest rate expectations, but they must also take account of trade decisions coming from the White House.

This week’s trading activity will likely reflect these competing forces. If Jerome maintains a steady tone and does not signal immediate cuts, the dollar may find some footing. However, if the probability of a rate reduction continues to climb, longer-term strength could remain under pressure. On the tariff front, Donald’s latest policies may further shake confidence in the greenback, depending on how markets interpret the broader economic impact.

For derivative traders, these levels become particularly important. If they intend to position themselves for further downside movement in the index, watching whether support around 105.89 holds could be key. Should the index breach that level, then 105.33 might be next in sight. However, those banking on a rebound will likely be looking at whether 106.52 can be reclaimed before making any strong moves.

In the coming weeks, it becomes a question of how swiftly expectations of rate cuts shift. Should the likelihood of a June cut increase, the downward pressure on the dollar could intensify. If, however, the data suggests a more resilient economy, some traders may reconsider just how aggressively they price in those moves. The upcoming statements from the Federal Reserve and further US economic data will be worth monitoring carefully.

The White House intends to impose a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico next week, regardless of President Trump’s earlier statement indicating a start date in April.

The USDCAD exchange rate experienced a slight increase, reaching 1.4335, after peaking at 1.4366 for the day. The currency pair has surpassed important resistance levels between 1.4268 and 1.42789.

That means Washington is moving faster than expected. The 25% duty on goods from Canada and Mexico will take effect sooner, even though Donald previously mentioned a later timeline. Markets might not have fully adjusted yet.

The rise in USDCAD suggests traders were already positioning for this. Although the pair briefly touched 1.4366, it settled a little lower. That does not mean upward movement is over. It already moved past resistance in the 1.4268–1.4278 range, which could now act as support if the rate pulls back.

We need to watch how Ottawa and Mexico City react. Responses from officials could drive further market shifts. If either country announces countermeasures, traders may adjust quickly. That could mean sharper moves in USDCAD, possibly testing new highs.

At the same time, broader sentiment around the dollar matters. If investors pile into safe-haven assets, that could push the currency even higher, adding to the momentum. On the other hand, any attempt to cool trade tensions might limit further gains, at least temporarily.

Monitoring price action in the coming days will be important. If USDCAD holds above the prior resistance zone, that could reinforce confidence in an extended move. However, a drop below it might suggest a short-term pullback before another attempt higher.

The Fear and Greed Index from CNN Business has dropped to 22, mirroring December’s lows, indicating extreme fear in US stock markets. Historically, this level can signal a buying opportunity, but recent trends suggest caution due to potential market volatility.

The S&P 500 fell below 6000 at the start of the week, failing to push past its 50-day moving average. A slip below 5900 could signal a larger sell-off across equity markets, with further risk if it drops below the 200-day moving average at 5750.

In addition, the Nasdaq100 and Dow Jones have formed double tops, signalling possible trend reversals. Despite this, a typical response would be a rebound towards the upper boundary above 6600, aided by the VIX remaining below 20, which generally indicates a stable market environment.

The drop in sentiment, as measured by the Fear and Greed Index, suggests that investors are becoming wary. Historically, such low readings have often been followed by recoveries, but recent market behaviour demands a more measured approach. When uncertainty rises, it’s easy to look for past patterns, but they don’t always repeat in the same way.

A key concern is that the S&P 500 is struggling to find support. Having dipped under 6000, its inability to reclaim the 50-day moving average suggests that upward momentum is fading. If 5900 fails to hold, selling pressure might intensify, especially as traders watch the 200-day moving average around 5750. A break below that level would indicate a much broader shift in sentiment, forcing both long-term investors and short-term traders to rethink their positions.

At the same time, we must acknowledge the patterns emerging in other indices. The double tops seen in both the Nasdaq100 and Dow Jones signal that they are testing key resistance points. Such formations often suggest the end of an upward phase, though markets do not always react immediately. A brief rally towards resistance near 6600 is still very much in play, especially given that the VIX remains subdued. When volatility stays low, traders tend to assume that corrections will be limited rather than prolonged.

Over the coming weeks, much depends on whether these levels are respected or broken decisively. If buyers step in near current support zones, momentum traders may look for another push higher. Conversely, a failure to hold could bring more defensive positioning, with derivatives traders adjusting their exposure accordingly. The next moves will not be determined by technical factors alone, but they provide a strong foundation for understanding what could unfold.

The AUDUSD has fallen for the third time in four days, with its peak near the 100-day moving average at 0.6407. Today’s trading has been volatile, with support found between 0.6287 and 0.6301, but sellers regained control after a temporary rebound.

During this bounce, the pair reached resistance between 0.6327 and 0.6336, but buying momentum diminished, leading to a decline. Currently, AUDUSD sits just below the 0.6300 level, indicating persistent bearish pressure.

A move below 0.6285, which marks a swing area and the 38.2% retracement level, may result in further downward movement. Conversely, if the 0.6285 level holds, it could prompt a recovery, suggesting the pullback may simply be a standard correction.

The recent movement reflects a market that continues to respond sharply to technical barriers, showing a reluctance to establish firm upward momentum. The earlier test of resistance lacked follow-through from buyers, reinforcing the prevailing downside bias. Selling interest remains dominant, with each attempt to recover meeting fresh offers, keeping upward movements limited.

With the pair hovering just beneath 0.6300, every slight rebound has met resistance before gaining much traction. The rejection from the 0.6330 region earlier in the session suggests sellers are still active at those levels. Without a shift in sentiment or a break above recent highs, downward pressure is likely to persist, keeping the focus on lower support zones.

The 0.6285 mark remains a key threshold. A decisive move below this area could open the door to a more pronounced slide as traders who had been banking on stability in this range may begin to capitulate. This is not just a random number on the chart—it aligns with previous swing levels and a Fibonacci retracement point, which many will be watching closely. If the slide continues, eyes will naturally turn to the next areas of potential buying interest, likely near 0.6250.

For those on the other side of the trade, 0.6285 serves as a line in the sand. As long as selling momentum fails to sustain a break beneath it, rebounds remain an option. This would suggest that what we are seeing now is a natural price adjustment rather than the start of an extended downtrend. A swift reclaiming of 0.6300 or beyond could unsettle recent bearish positioning, forcing an adjustment from those who have been pressing for further weakness.

Looking beyond immediate levels, market participants will need to assess how sentiment develops in response to external economic signals. The sensitivity to technical metrics remains high, but confidence in sustained directional movement remains elusive. Each failed attempt to rally or sell off decisively only feeds into the uncertainty, providing opportunities for those navigating short-term swings.