Dhingra from the Bank of England noted that the factors driving rapid trade growth have weakened. Increased US tariffs may lead to a stronger dollar in the short term, affecting prices in the UK.

Despite a change in trading dynamics with Europe, the overall impact on price stability has been minimal. In light of ongoing supply shortages, maintaining inflation targets remains necessary for economic stability.

Swati highlighted that the forces previously pushing trade expansion forward are not as strong as before. With the United States raising tariffs, the dollar could strengthen for a while. If that happens, goods brought into Britain might become more expensive, which would influence costs across different sectors.

Although trade with the European Union has shifted, it has not thrown overall price stability off course. Inflation remains a focus as supply bottlenecks persist. Keeping inflation under control is still required to avoid further economic strain.

Bailey has stressed that external price pressures need to be monitored closely. If inflation expectations shift too much, adjustments in policy might follow. With financial conditions tightening in various markets, there is no guarantee that current trends will remain steady.

Mann pointed out that currency fluctuations could feed into inflation, particularly if the pound moves unpredictably against the dollar. Exchange rate movements have the potential to impact import costs, and if businesses pass those increases on, household budgets would feel the effects.

As interest rates remain under scrutiny, Pill has reminded that policy decisions rely on data. If inflation figures do not move as expected, the next steps may need to reflect those changes, particularly as the balance between growth and stability becomes more complicated.

BP has announced its ‘reset’, refocusing on oil and gas while reallocating capital and cutting costs to enhance shareholder returns. This approach has led to a short-term decline in the stock price, although the shareholder presentation is set for later today.

Key elements include reducing capex by $1-3 billion, with an estimated $15 billion in total spending this year. Investment in net zero projects has been cut to $1.5-2 billion from $5 billion previously.

The company aims to reduce costs by $4-5 billion, potentially leading to job cuts in non-oil sectors. BP plans to divest $20 billion over the next two years to lower net debt by $14-18 billion by 2027.

The guidance outlines a distribution of 30-40% of operating cash flow to shareholders over time, despite slashing the current share buyback plan from $1.75 billion in Q4 to $0.75-1 billion in Q1. Meeting free cash flow goals requires Brent crude prices of $70 per barrel, currently just above $73.

BP’s timing raises concerns as oil prices begin to decline. Elliott Management, an activist investor holding a near 5% stake, may influence future decisions based on the effectiveness of the reset. The market has reacted cautiously, suggesting challenges in boosting share prices.

Meanwhile, US Federal Reserve rate cut expectations have shifted, with markets predicting rates to end the year at 3.78%. Expectations have adjusted to forecast two rate cuts this year, impacting the strength of the dollar, which has underperformed against other currencies.

BP’s strategy shift has been met with some scepticism. The drive to reallocate capital more towards oil and gas, while trimming down spending elsewhere, has unsettled investors. Cutting capital expenditures by $1-3 billion and reducing investments in cleaner energy sources will affect long-term ambitions, but for now, the focus is squarely on increasing returns. Some of that reallocation comes in the form of workforce reductions in areas outside core operations, and the sale of $20 billion in assets should help bring debt down considerably by 2027.

A lower-than-expected share buyback in the first quarter signals caution. The plan to distribute 30-40% of operational cash flow over time sounds appealing, but execution will be scrutinised if crude prices don’t hold firm. At present, Brent sits slightly above $73 per barrel, making the $70 target for sustaining free cash flow achievable—for now.

With oil coming off recent highs, the timing is far from ideal. Investors have hesitated, evident in the share price response. Elliott is watching closely, and its influence could shape how things unfold. If the current measures don’t restore confidence, pressure to refine the approach will grow.

Away from BP, shifting expectations around US Federal Reserve policy are stirring changes elsewhere. Markets now see rates ending the year close to 3.78%, with a growing consensus around just two cuts rather than the earlier projections of faster easing. That adjustment has been enough to weigh on the dollar, which has lost ground against several other currencies.

For those trading derivatives, this mix of corporate moves and macroeconomic shifts presents a fast-moving environment. Lower US rates should eventually pressure the dollar further, affecting oil valuations in turn. If crude sees further declines, BP’s free cash flow goals could face more pressure, and shareholders may push back harder.

The GBPUSD has fluctuated around the 100-day moving average (MA) over the past five trading days. It surpassed the 100-day MA for the first time since November 2024, indicating market uncertainty regarding future movements.

Support has emerged on dips near the 38.2% retracement level of 1.2607, following the decline from the September 2024 high. This support was maintained early in the week, suggesting buyers have a short to medium-term advantage.

Currently, GBPUSD is testing a new high at 1.2690, with buyer activity appearing strong. However, if the price falls below the 100-day MA, it may lead to a shift in market dynamics.

The recent price movements around the 100-day moving average suggest that traders remain divided on the long-term direction. Although the pair briefly moved above this level, the failure to establish a sustained push higher reflects hesitation. This kind of behaviour often indicates that participants are weighing new data releases and external factors before making larger commitments.

The presence of support at 1.2607 reinforces the idea that buyers still hold some control. Each time the pair has approached this level, demand has shown resilience, preventing a deeper decline. When a retracement level repeatedly attracts interest, it underscores its importance, making it a key area to watch in the coming sessions. If it holds firm, further attempts at pushing beyond recent highs could follow.

Now that the price is challenging 1.2690, attention will centre on whether the momentum from buyers can continue. If this level is breached and maintained, it opens the door for further upside. On the other hand, a failure to hold above it would strengthen the argument that sellers remain active.

The role of the 100-day moving average cannot be ignored. It has acted as a dividing line, and a fall back below it would suggest that sentiment is shifting. Traders will need to monitor whether downside moves are accompanied by increased volume or if declines remain limited and slow. If the latter occurs, it could imply a temporary pause instead of a full reversal.

Considering recent market behaviour, there is little room for complacency. Trends can change quickly, especially when prices hover around key technical levels. Watching how price responds around both support and resistance zones will offer guidance on whether momentum remains intact or begins to wane.

Gold’s price (XAU/USD) is currently around $2,910, following a 1.3% decline the prior day due to concerns over US consumer confidence and tariff threats. US yields have dropped, with a projected 25 basis points rate cut expected in June from the Federal Reserve.

Tariffs on Mexico and Canada are due to be enacted on March 4, while the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, will be released soon. Weak US data has raised hopes for a Fed interest rate cut, influencing gold demand.

Currently, gold trades below the daily Pivot Point, with potential downside risks. The Relative Strength Index suggests a possible drop to $2,880 if market conditions worsen. For recovery, the daily Pivot Point at $2,918 and resistance at $2,948 are key levels.

Interest rates impact currency strength and are set by central banks to maintain price stability, often targeting a 2% inflation rate. Higher rates typically strengthen a currency and lower gold prices due to increased opportunity costs associated with holding gold versus interest-bearing assets.

The Fed funds rate influences lending between banks and shapes market behaviour ahead of Federal Reserve decisions.

We’re witnessing some bumps in the road for gold prices, and it’s not just about the numbers. The retreat to around $2,910 followed an earlier decline, largely driven by renewed worries surrounding US consumer confidence and trade barriers. With Treasury yields also slipping, expectations have grown for a 25-basis-point rate cut from the Federal Reserve in June.

At the same time, upcoming trade restrictions with Mexico and Canada threaten to stir market volatility. On top of that, we have the core inflation data due soon—something traders will be watching closely. Disappointing economic numbers from the US have fuelled speculation that policymakers may move towards rate cuts sooner rather than later. That has a direct effect on gold, since lower interest rates make non-yielding assets more appealing.

From a technical standpoint, the metal hovers below the daily Pivot Point, leaving room for further declines if sentiment deteriorates. Sitting on the horizon is the $2,880 level, which looms as a possible target should momentum remain bearish. For those looking towards recovery, movement beyond $2,918 could indicate strength, with the next hurdle standing at $2,948.

When it comes to interest rates, they serve as a major force in shaping currency movements. Central banks set borrowing costs to keep inflation steady, generally aiming for around 2%. When rates climb, a currency becomes stronger, making gold less attractive due to the added cost of holding it. In contrast, when rates fall, gold tends to gain appeal.

The Federal Reserve’s benchmark lending rate plays an essential role in the financial system, influencing everything from interbank lending to broader market expectations. As we move through the coming weeks, market positioning will continue to be dictated by shifting rate expectations and how the latest economic data plays into them.

The latest report from the EIA shows a decrease of 2,332K in US crude oil inventories, contrasting with the expected increase of 2,605K. The previous week’s figure was a rise of 4,633K.

Gasoline inventories increased by 369K, while a decline of 849K was anticipated. Distillates rose by 3,908K, exceeding the expected drop of 1,488K.

Although the crude oil draw represents positive news for the oil market, the figures for refined products suggest bearish conditions. Increased refinery activity aimed to address tighter diesel and fuel oil supplies.

A sharper decline in crude stocks than anticipated suggests a stronger pull on supply, which typically points to greater demand or lower production levels. The expectation was for inventories to grow, yet they dropped by over 2 million barrels instead. This shift could create tighter supply conditions if the trend persists. With last week’s large build, the latest figures show a reversal, but whether this continues depends on refinery throughput, imports, and broader consumption trends.

At the same time, refined product inventories moved in the opposite direction. Petrol stocks climbed despite forecasts expecting a reduction. Though the increase was small, it indicates that demand was not as strong as projected or that output ran ahead of consumption. Distillate supplies surged far beyond what markets had priced in, implying weaker demand for heating fuels and diesel or an intentional push by refiners to boost availability. Since refiners react to price signals and seasonal patterns, this jump in distillates could mean they are preparing for potential winter shortages or responding to prior supply constraints.

Much of this comes back to refining operations. Adjustments made in response to previous shortages of diesel and fuel oil have likely contributed to the shifts seen now. If processing rates remain elevated, further builds in refined stockpiles may weigh on margins. On the other hand, if crude inventories continue to shrink while refined products pile up, refiners may be forced to slow runs, affecting both upstream and downstream price movements.

The contrasting shifts in crude and products bring attention to refining decisions in the near term. Whether refineries maintain current output levels or scale back will depend on how product demand holds up and whether crude supply trends towards continued draws or renewed builds. Market participants need to watch for how these forces shape upcoming inventory reports and refining margins, as these will be key in determining potential price shifts.

Mortgage applications in the United States decreased by 1.2% on February 21, compared to a larger drop of 6.6% previously. This decline follows ongoing trends in the mortgage market.

In currency trading, the AUD/USD pair is facing resistance around the 0.6300 mark, while the EUR/USD pair struggled to breach the 1.0500 level. Gold prices have risen past $2,900 per troy ounce due to a weakening US Dollar.

Inflation in France is predicted to drop, influenced by reduced electricity prices, though rapid price rises in services persist across the Eurozone. Bitcoin remains around $87,000 following significant market volatility.

A slight dip in mortgage applications by 1.2% shows a slower pullback than the steeper 6.6% decline seen earlier. It suggests that while demand may not yet be strong, the previous sharp drop could have been an outsized reaction. Longer-term buyers still seem hesitant, but the slower decline hints that conditions might be stabilising.

The Aussie dollar remains pressured under 0.6300, struggling to gain momentum. It has had trouble pushing past resistance, which suggests sellers are still in control. Meanwhile, the euro tested 1.0500 but could not break higher, with markets keeping a watchful eye on any shifts in US monetary policy. If traders continue rejecting these price levels, we may not see an immediate recovery.

Gold has surged beyond $2,900 per troy ounce as weakness in the dollar provided a tailwind. A rising gold price often signals persistent fears about inflation or wider economic risks. If strength in gold sustains in the coming days, it might reinforce concerns that investors are shifting to safer assets.

French inflation is expected to ease, partly helped by lower electricity costs. However, services across the broader Eurozone still experience price increases, which complicates the overall trend. The European Central Bank will likely pay close attention to whether these pockets of inflationary pressure continue.

Bitcoin has largely hovered around $87,000 despite the turbulence in recent sessions. Sharp fluctuations haven’t led to an extended move in either direction, keeping traders alert for the next opportunity. If price swings settle, volatility-focused strategies might need adjusting.

EURUSD has experienced volatility today, alternating between essential technical levels. During the Asia session, it initially advanced, testing the weekly high at 1.0527 and the January high at 1.05325, reaching a peak of 1.05242 before turning lower.

As the U.S. session commenced, EURUSD fell below the 100-hour moving average at 1.04839 but remained above the 200-hour moving average at 1.04718. A critical support zone exists between 1.04529 and 1.04677, where the price had previously found support on Monday and Tuesday.

For sellers to strengthen their position, they must breach both moving averages. Otherwise, the pair may remain within a defined range, with resistance at 1.0525 to 1.05325 and lower support from 1.04529 to 1.0467.

Declining beneath both moving averages would indicate that sellers have regained control. If the price holds above these levels instead, buyers may attempt another push towards the resistance area. With fluctuating sentiment, short-term positioning will be key.

We have seen price movements largely guided by technical barriers rather than a decisive directional shift. The failure to sustain gains beyond the week’s high points hints at hesitation among buyers, while sellers have not yet demonstrated enough strength to overwhelm support levels. This leaves the market in a state where both sides will need greater conviction to establish momentum.

The 100-hour and 200-hour moving averages now serve as pivotal markers. Any sustained movement beneath them would suggest downward pressure is building, particularly if the nearby support area fails to hold. Continued tests of this range without a break mean consolidation remains in play. If support holds firm, expect attempts to push higher again, but gains should be monitored for rejection near recent tops.

Market participants should be aware of whether price action stays confined within this structure or if a decisive breakout occurs. Short-term positioning should reflect the boundaries currently in place, while any breach will require reassessment of expectations. Without a firm directional push, fluctuations within the broader technical range will likely persist.

Lowe’s reported challenges in the US housing market, with shares rising 2.5% due to modest revenue and earnings growth, following an 18% decline since October. The persistent high mortgage rates, currently at 6.8%, contribute to a struggling sector.

For 2025, Lowe’s forecasts same store sales to remain flat or increase by up to 1% after a 3.1% revenue decline in FY2024. Conversely, comp store sales rose 0.2% quarter-on-quarter, ending an eight-quarter downward trend.

Home Depot’s CEO stated that housing turnover has likely bottomed out at approximately 3% of units, with no expected rebound or significant increases in new housing starts.

The latest update from Lowe’s highlights a familiar concern: the ongoing weakness in the US housing market. Despite shares climbing 2.5%, revenue and earnings growth remained moderate. This upward movement in share price comes after months of decline, with Lowe’s stock having fallen by 18% since October. The broader picture remains challenging, as persistently high mortgage rates, now at 6.8%, continue to keep prospective homebuyers on the sidelines. Elevated borrowing costs limit activity, reducing demand for home improvement projects and renovations—key drivers of Lowe’s performance.

Looking ahead, the company’s outlook for 2025 suggests no major sales rebound. Same-store sales are projected to be unchanged or rise by a modest 1%, following a revenue dip of 3.1% in the previous financial year. However, one recent development offers a slight shift in momentum: comparable store sales in the last quarter edged up 0.2%, marking the end of an eight-quarter decline. That increase, though small, is a break from the persistent downward trajectory seen since early 2022.

Meanwhile, Home Depot’s leadership reinforced concerns about the broader market environment. Ted made it clear that housing turnover appears to have stabilised at roughly 3% of total units. From that level, Home Depot does not anticipate a resurgence in housing transactions or a wave of new construction. That statement suggests that, barring external changes, demand for home improvement retail is unlikely to change dramatically in the coming months.

For those monitoring price movements, these updates provide plenty to consider. Investors have already adjusted expectations, as reflected by Lowe’s recent share price recovery. The stabilisation in comparable sales might suggest a floor has formed for now. However, the absence of a rebound in housing market activity keeps long-term growth prospects constrained. Mortgage rates remain high, affordability concerns linger, and with no major pick-up in home sales or new construction expected, the pace of any recovery looks uncertain.

As market trends play out, positioning will need to account for these contrasting signals. Some risks remain elevated, while recent earnings reports indicate that the sector may not deteriorate much further in the near term. Price action in the coming weeks will reflect how much of this has already been factored in.

USD/JPY has seen a gradual decline after reaching a lower high of 158.85, compared to the previous high of 162 in 2024. It recently fell below the 200-DMA and is currently testing the December low of 148.60, which acts as interim support.

The daily MACD has crossed below the equilibrium line, indicating sustained downward momentum. Should a short-term bounce occur, resistance may be found at the Moving Average of 152.50.

Failure to breach 152.50 may prompt further declines, with potential support levels identified at 147/146.85 and 145.

The recent price action shows a clear shift in momentum, and traders should be prepared for continued volatility. The fact that USD/JPY has fallen below the 200-day moving average is telling. This level often acts as a dividing line between longer-term bullish and bearish trends, and when price drops below it, sentiment can turn negative quickly.

A test of 148.60 was inevitable given the selling pressure. This level provided support in December, but there’s no guarantee it will hold now. If it breaks, market participants may start targeting 147, with 146.85 lining up as another point of interest. If this zone gives way, then attention will likely shift to 145, which is a psychologically round number and previously acted as a key area in the past.

On the upside, any recovery might be capped near 152.50, where a moving average stands in the way. If price begins to rebound, expect sellers to emerge around this level. A failure to push through could reinforce the idea that the broader move remains biased to the downside.

Momentum indicators also confirm the recent weakness. With the MACD now below its equilibrium line, bearish momentum remains in place. If there’s a temporary rally, it will take more than just a minor uptick to change the current sentiment. A sustained push higher would be needed before anyone can start considering a shift in trend.

As we navigate the coming sessions, it’s wise to remain flexible and react to price behaviour rather than predict it. Moves towards support levels should be watched closely, as well as whether any attempted rally finds rejection near resistance. Keep an eye on how price behaves around these key markers—persistent failures could reinforce the downward trajectory.

Canada’s January wholesale trade increased by 1.8%, based on a 59.1% survey response that will receive further updates.

Aircraft movements in Canada have recovered to only 92% of the levels seen in 2019, contrasting with the US where flights have surpassed pre-pandemic figures.

Furthermore, monthly load factors for November and December were lower than those recorded in 2023.

In a positive development, a survey indicates a forecasted 5.5% rise in non-residential tangible capital asset investment for 2025, with growth expected in both public and private sectors.

However, concerns exist regarding potential decreases in consumption due to tariff uncertainties and challenges in the housing market, particularly in Ontario and British Columbia.

The reported wholesale trade expansion in January suggests that commercial activity is showing momentum. However, the reliability of this figure remains open to adjustment due to the modest response rate in the survey. While the initial number indicates growth, revisions in the coming updates could either reinforce or temper the outlook. If the final figures continue to reflect gains, this would point to robust transactional activity across multiple sectors.

Air travel remains subdued when compared to pre-pandemic benchmarks. Canadian airport traffic still lags behind 2019 figures, whereas the United States has surpassed its previous peak. This slower revival suggests that domestic and international travel demand remains somewhat constrained. Load factors for the final two months of last year also fell short of those recorded the previous year, implying that capacity utilisation on flights has not recovered in tandem with initial optimism. Without a rebound in passenger volume, revenue efficiency for airlines operating in Canada may face pressure in the near term.

On a more encouraging note, projections indicate an expected rise in non-residential investment next year. Both private businesses and government entities anticipate increased spending on physical assets, aligning with broader economic expansion efforts. If these plans materialise, they could support employment levels and economic development. That said, external risks could still influence whether planned investments translate into actual expenditures.

Consumption risks remain evident, stemming from uncertainty around trade barriers and affordability challenges in property markets, particularly in Ontario and British Columbia. Ongoing concerns surrounding tariffs could weigh on purchasing behaviour, especially if import costs rise. Meanwhile, housing-related difficulties could constrain discretionary spending as households prioritise essential financial obligations. Market reactions to these factors will reflect whether demand remains resilient.