China’s technology sector presents attractive alternatives to US giants, supported by government backing and favourable market valuations. Easing regulations have opened opportunities in sectors like AI, semiconductors, cybersecurity, and electric vehicles (EVs).

E-commerce remains strong with companies like JD.com and Meituan thriving through innovations such as live-streaming. In semiconductors, domestic producers like SMIC and Hua Hong Semiconductor are expanding due to the need for local alternatives.

In AI and cloud computing, Alibaba, Baidu, and Tencent are at the forefront. The EV market is led by BYD, XPeng, and Li Auto, with cybersecurity firms like Qi An Xin gaining from increased demand for local services.

With lower valuations compared to American counterparts, these firms are drawing the attention of investors who see both growth potential and reduced regulatory risk. The easing of restrictions has not only allowed them to innovate more freely but has also encouraged interest from domestic and international markets.

Logistics and service-driven platforms are refining user engagement, particularly through real-time interaction with buyers. JD.com and Meituan have capitalised on this by merging entertainment with retail, which has strengthened customer retention. The focus is not just on traditional e-commerce but on creating digital ecosystems that integrate shopping, payment, and local services smoothly.

In semiconductor production, there has been a strong push to build local supply chains. SMIC and Hua Hong Semiconductor are gaining ground as demand for domestically produced chips increases. With external pressures affecting imports, these businesses are becoming central in efforts to improve self-sufficiency. The combination of government incentives and industry expertise is accelerating the shift towards reliance on homegrown solutions.

AI advancements are moving quickly, with Alibaba, Baidu, and Tencent positioning themselves to compete globally. Their cloud computing divisions are expanding beyond domestic markets, targeting businesses seeking alternatives to Western providers. Given past setbacks related to foreign dependencies, having robust in-house AI and cloud services ensures more stability.

While EV competition remains strong, BYD, XPeng, and Li Auto continue to refine battery technology and vehicle design. Lower production costs combined with growing demand mean they are well-positioned domestically and internationally. Meanwhile, reliance on cybersecurity from local firms is becoming the standard. Qi An Xin stands out as businesses and governments prioritise protection from external threats.

For those trading derivatives, understanding how these trends translate into volatility is essential. Regulatory shifts, earnings reports, and geopolitical influences will create price swings, presenting both risk and opportunity. Those focused on short-term movements must stay alert to policy announcements and market sentiment, as these factors directly affect pricing.

Monitoring liquidity levels in these stocks is also key, particularly given varying overseas investor sentiment. While long-term holdings may benefit from regulatory stability, short-term trades are highly reactive to policy changes and quarterly updates. Staying ahead of industry developments ensures no sudden shifts catch traders off guard.

The US-Ukraine deal has been released, with President Zelensky set to travel to the US for its signing. This agreement establishes a Reconstruction Investment Fund aimed at fostering collaboration between the two nations.

The fund’s investment strategy will focus on Ukrainian assets, including natural resources and key infrastructures, such as ports and state-owned enterprises. The US is committed to a long-term financial relationship, involving a joint management approach with Ukraine.

In total, Ukraine will contribute 50% of future monetisation revenues from its natural resources to the fund. The deal also includes provisions to ensure the protection of mutual investments.

This agreement outlines a long-term financial commitment between both countries, with Washington securing influence over Ukrainian assets in exchange for investment. By requiring half of future revenues from resource monetisation—an arrangement that effectively ties Ukraine’s economic recovery to the fund—the US has ensured a degree of oversight. This structure reduces uncertainty for investors, as joint management prevents sudden policy shifts that could deter capital.

Natural resource-backed financing creates an interesting dynamic for pricing. As Ukraine remains a commodity-heavy economy, future asset values will fluctuate based on energy demand and infrastructure stability. Ports, for example, serve as major transit hubs for agricultural exports, and with US involvement in their administration, efficiency gains could materialise. If those improvements translate into increased shipments, related commodities may see higher liquidity.

For those watching volatility-driven opportunities, the protection clauses within the agreement imply lower downside risk for foreign capital flows. Joint oversight suggests that abrupt nationalisation policies are unlikely, which stabilises expectations in sectors subject to government influence. That assurance reduces uncertainty premiums typically baked into valuations when operating in politically exposed markets.

With Zelensky preparing to formalise this arrangement in Washington, clarity on implementation details will follow. Negotiations of this scale frequently involve secondary agreements, and any adjustments could alter perceived risk exposure. Until the final text is available, pricing in potential legislative changes remains a factor.

Market reactions will likely hinge on whether Ukraine enacts domestic policies that complement this framework. If institutional safeguards improve, capital flows may rise at a pace that shortens the recovery timeline. Any divergence, however, would have the opposite effect on valuations in relevant sectors.

European natural gas prices decreased by 6% yesterday, with TTF as a notable index suffering from this drop. Contributing to this decline is a US-Ukraine minerals deal and calls from German utilities to ease storage target rules ahead of winter.

Utilities propose reducing the storage target from 90% to 80% for November 1st. Current EU gas storage levels are just over 40%, down from 64% at this time last year and below the 5-year average of 51%.

This average is influenced by milder winters in recent years and the effects of the Covid pandemic.

This change in gas prices is not an isolated event. The decision by Germany’s utilities to seek lower storage targets reflects a wider concern about supply and demand heading into winter. Falling below the five-year average raises questions about whether European nations can comfortably meet their energy needs without resorting to last-minute purchasing at higher rates. The markets, predictably, reacted.

US involvement in Ukraine through mineral deals introduces another layer to the issue. The deal adds another dimension to Europe’s already complex energy network and could shift how traders assess risks in the short term. If companies expect more material movements from outside typical suppliers, pricing models may have to adjust accordingly.

With storage levels lower than in recent years, expectations for colder weather could influence contracts. If we start seeing long-range forecasts predicting an early or harsh winter, traders will be forced to be more aggressive in securing their positions. At the same time, political conversations around storage relaxation may lead to greater volatility or delays in decision-making, keeping contracts in limbo.

Alex, pushing the storage rule changes, argues that flexibility is needed to avoid unnecessary cost burdens. Some within the sector disagree, stating that relying on lower reserves could backfire if unexpected weather shifts occur or if supply chains weaken. These divisions matter because policy uncertainty will ripple through short-term derivatives markets.

On the US side, the latest agreement involving Ukraine affects futures pricing by subtly reinforcing an alternative route for securing critical materials. If more capacity is freed up in one area, we could see indirect impacts on gas deliveries elsewhere.

Some traders might be tempted to assume the market is stabilising after this price movement. That is an assumption that should be tested carefully. Price signals from Asia and the U.S. need to be watched closely since European demand could shift depending on how other buyers respond to similar supply concerns.

In the coming weeks, careful tracking of short-term weather models and continued discussion about European reserves will be decisive. Johannes, advocating for stricter targets, warns that scaling back now could leave the continent vulnerable. As the debate continues, positions will need to be adjusted based on whether any policy shifts materialise.

New winter supply arrangements—particularly those involving liquefied natural gas (LNG)—should also be monitored. If LNG deliveries become irregular, effects on TTF could be immediate. Continuing price movements may reflect traders repositioning based on the probability of an underprepared storage framework.

Traders should look out for more detailed policy announcements in the next fortnight. Forecast variations or unexpected production updates from major suppliers may lead to price swings that affect forward contracts more than expected.

Mortgage applications in the US decreased by 1.2% for the week ending 21 February 2025, compared to a decline of 6.6% the previous week.

This reduction is primarily attributed to a drop in refinancing activity, indicating a shift back to a quieter housing market after a brief increase at the year’s start.

Meanwhile, purchase applications saw only a modest change, suggesting that homebuyers are not rushing into the market despite lower refinancing numbers. The shift follows a period of increased activity during early January, when falling mortgage rates briefly encouraged more homeowners to refinance. Now, with rates stabilising and fewer borrowers seeing financial benefits from refinancing, demand has eased.

Recent remarks from Jerome indicate that policymakers remain focused on long-term stability rather than short-term market reactions. While no immediate adjustments to monetary policy were outlined, his tone reinforced expectations that interest rates will not see abrupt changes. This aligns with previous comments from other Federal Reserve officials, who have repeatedly pointed to a data-driven approach.

Labour market reports continue to show resilience, reducing the likelihood of any sudden rate cuts. Wage growth remains steady, and unemployment figures have not deviated much from expectations. If job numbers continue on this trajectory, the central bank has little reason to adjust its stance in the coming weeks. Inflation data also suggest that price pressures are easing gradually, giving policymakers room to observe before making any moves.

Further insight came from Lael, who emphasised the importance of keeping inflation on a controlled path over the coming months. Her statement reinforced the message that while progress has been made, officials want to ensure price stability before considering rate reductions. Market participants should recognise that this approach will likely lead to continued rate steadiness unless fresh data shifts the outlook.

The bond market reacted with muted movement following these comments, showing that expectations for policy adjustments remain largely unchanged. Treasury yields have held within a narrow range, reflecting a calm response from traders who see little chance of unexpected shifts in the near term. Equity markets also displayed minimal reaction, as investors had already priced in a steady policy approach.

Looking ahead, the focus stays on upcoming inflation figures and employment reports. Any surprises in these areas could prompt markets to adjust their projections, but current indications suggest a steady path forward.

The US Dollar may decline slightly against the Chinese Yuan (CNH), with support levels identified at 7.2420 and 7.2350. Holding above 7.2300 has reduced the likelihood of further declines in the USD.

In the last 24 hours, the USD reached a low of 7.2264 before recovering to close at 7.2532, with resistance noted at 7.2570 and 7.2660. The overall outlook suggests that a significant move would require a breach of the strong resistance at 7.2705.

Recent performance indicates the USD’s downward momentum might be easing, but traders should remain cautious.

The way things have shaped up, it looks like the US dollar might not weaken too much against the Chinese yuan—at least not without struggling to break through a few key levels. We’ve marked 7.2420 and 7.2350 as areas where buyers could step in. Prices staying above 7.2300 have made it less likely that we’ll see a deep drop anytime soon.

Over the past day, we saw the dollar dip to 7.2264 before rebounding and closing at 7.2532. Selling pressure has met resistance at 7.2570 and 7.2660. If traders push the price up towards 7.2705, that will be a tough barrier to break. It’s a level that’s held firm before, and if it gives way, that would likely open the door for sharper movements.

There’s been a slowdown in how fast the dollar has been weakening, and that alone suggests that a reversal could be on the cards. That said, those who react too quickly might regret it. While momentum has stalled, there’s no guarantee that strength will return right away. Instead of committing too early, we’d be better off watching price movements in the next few sessions to see if buyers actually have enough control to turn things around.

Now, if the dollar does climb back past 7.2570 with ease, that would hint that more gains are possible. Still, unless it clears 7.2705, we could just be seeing a temporary bounce. If, on the other hand, 7.2300 gets tested again, then downside risks come right back into play. Traders should have a plan for both scenarios, keeping an eye on volumes and intraday momentum for confirmation.

Wall Street has experienced a decline this week, though US futures are showing some recovery, particularly in tech shares. Nvidia’s upcoming earnings are drawing attention, especially in light of the recent DeepSeek emergence.

The S&P 500 is testing its 100-day moving average, a level it has approached only four times since 2024. The late July to early August selloff was a notable exception in an otherwise bullish year.

The Nasdaq has also tested its 100-day moving average three times since 2024, with the previous market rout similarly challenging investor confidence. This current drop may indicate a shift in market sentiment.

Market expectations for Nvidia’s earnings continue, with particular focus on capital expenditures and AI investments. Investors are looking to understand how Nvidia plans to navigate the implications of DeepSeek.

The narrative Nvidia presents will be vital for maintaining market confidence. A lack of reassurance could negatively affect risk trades as critical technical levels loom.

Despite the uptick in US futures, caution remains warranted as potential pitfalls exist should Nvidia’s performance disappoint. Historical trends suggest that market dynamics can change unexpectedly.

We have seen Wall Street struggle this week, though a modest rebound in US futures suggests that not all confidence has been lost. Technology stocks are leading the way in this partial recovery, with Nvidia’s earnings report looming large. DeepSeek’s emergence has only added to the anticipation, raising new questions about market positioning.

The S&P 500 is now hovering around its 100-day moving average, a level that has acted as a foundation for momentum throughout the year. This mark has only been breached four times since 2024, the most notable instance occurring between late July and early August. That particular downturn caught many off guard, standing out in what has otherwise been a strong year for stocks.

The Nasdaq has displayed a similar pattern. This is the third time in 2024 it has tested its 100-day moving average, with past declines shaking investor sentiment. Each time the market has approached this threshold, traders have been forced to reconsider their risk exposure. A decisive break below these levels could open the door to further unwinding, whereas a bounce would reinforce confidence in the broader trend.

With Nvidia’s report approaching, expectations are focused not just on sales figures but also on spending plans. Investors want clarity on how capital expenditure will be deployed, particularly regarding artificial intelligence. Given the attention surrounding DeepSeek, the response from Jensen and his team will help shape sentiment for weeks to come. Their ability to reassure the market will carry weight far beyond just the stock itself.

Should Nvidia’s message fail to provide stability, risk assets elsewhere will feel the impact. The stock serves as a bellwether for wider AI enthusiasm, making its reaction one to watch closely. With key technical levels already being tested, an unfavourable response could accelerate selling. On the other hand, a strong report could reaffirm investor confidence, reinforcing areas that have recently come under pressure.

Even though futures are attempting a rebound, the current setup requires traders to tread carefully. Past patterns show that optimism can fade quickly when expectations are set this high.

The US Dollar (USD) is poised to retest the 148.55 level against the Japanese Yen (JPY), with a sustained break below this level appearing unlikely. The longer-term outlook suggests that USD weakness has not yet stabilised, with a slower pace of decline expected.

In recent trading, the USD rebounded from a low of 148.63 to a high of 150.30 before falling sharply to 148.56. As long as the resistance at 149.70 is not breached, there remains a chance for another attempt at the 148.55 level, while the next support level to monitor is 147.70.

What we are seeing here is a market that appears hesitant to commit fully to a direction. There’s been a pullback, but the overall trend of weakness hasn’t fully run its course. The drop from 150.30 down to 148.56 suggests that sellers are still active, but the fact that the price stopped just above 148.55 indicates strong buying interest in that area.

Joshua pointed out that unless 149.70 is cleared, the expectation of another dip towards 148.55 remains valid. That means traders should be cautious about assuming a lasting recovery until that level is convincingly breached. A failure to break higher would likely lead to another test of support. The next level we are watching sits at 147.70, which would come into focus if downward pressure builds further.

Karen’s assessment that the USD’s broader weakening trend is not yet over remains key. However, she also noted that the rate of decline appears to be levelling off somewhat. That translates into choppy price action where traders should be prepared for abrupt moves in both directions.

For those watching derivatives, this setup suggests a mix of patience and vigilance is needed. Option pricing is likely to reflect higher implied volatility while traders adjust to the shifting momentum. A drop beneath 148.55 could accelerate selling, but unless that happens, expecting a gradual decline rather than a rapid selloff seems more in line with recent behaviour.

As we navigate the coming sessions, keeping an eye on how price reacts around 149.70 on the upside and 148.55 on the downside will be essential. If either of those levels breaks convincingly, it may provide a clearer signal about which side is gaining control. Until then, preparing for short bursts of movement rather than extended trends seems the most reasonable approach.

The Kremlin announced that discussions are being arranged at an expert level through the foreign affairs ministries. A meeting between Trump and Putin remains a possibility, but will occur only after thorough preparations.

Additionally, Ukrainian President Zelenskyy plans to visit Washington later this week. This trip is expected to involve a deal concerning mineral resources, though the Kremlin has not provided specific details, stating the purpose remains uncertain until official statements are made.

These diplomatic events will shape the next few weeks. The fact that officials are working through foreign affairs ministries suggests both sides aim to avoid any missteps before higher-level talks take place. The Kremlin’s approach implies that a meeting between Trump and Putin is not imminent, and if it happens at all, it will come after detailed arrangements. That means there will be time to observe shifts in rhetoric and policy before anything binding is agreed upon. This process moves slowly, but the expectation that discussions are advancing creates room for speculation in the short term.

Meanwhile, Zelenskyy’s planned visit brings another layer to this. While Moscow has not disclosed a specific concern about the trip, it is watching closely. A deal involving mineral resources could change supply expectations, depending on the outcome. If agreements in Washington lead to stronger commitments on critical materials, that would affect both regional economies and broader trade relationships. Moscow will respond accordingly. Even before any formal announcement, the expectation alone will lead to repositioning.

Throughout this period, keeping a close watch on developments in these diplomatic talks will be necessary. Markets are not waiting for final agreements—they adjust as events unfold. What matters most is not just what is said, but who says it and how directly. Since these discussions involve multiple countries with distinct goals, statements from each party will need to be assessed separately. Some will be meant to reassure, others will be tests to gauge reactions. It is not just about whether meetings happen, but about the steps leading to them.

This is not a moment when assumptions will hold for long. The next statements from the Kremlin or Washington could quickly shift expectations in either direction. Those involved will need to parse official remarks carefully. Words will be chosen for a reason, and the timing of each message will indicate what is being prioritised. After all, these negotiations do not happen in isolation—each move will be measured against the others.

Copper futures on COMEX saw an increase of over 3% following President Trump’s directive to investigate copper imports due to national security issues. The US imports approximately 45% of its copper requirements, which has contributed to this upward movement.

The potential for copper tariffs has caused fluctuations in the COMEX/LME arbitrage, recently widening back towards $900 per tonne. Earlier, the arbitrage briefly spiked above $1,000 per tonne after the announcement of tariffs on steel and aluminium imports.

This jump in copper futures reflects traders reacting to possible changes in trade policy. When a country considers tariffs or restrictions on imports, markets often adjust quickly as investors assess supply risks. In this case, concerns over how much copper the US brings in from abroad have pushed the price higher.

The widening COMEX/LME arbitrage means the price gap between the US and London markets is stretching again. When tariffs on steel and aluminium were announced, we saw a rapid increase in this spread. A similar movement has begun taking shape. If traders expect further trade restrictions on copper, this gap could continue expanding as US pricing adjusts separately from global trends.

Supply chains remain a major factor. Roughly half of the copper used in the US is sourced from other countries. If there is an effort to limit imports, domestic supply becomes more important. That naturally lifts the futures price as buyers anticipate tighter availability.

From here, traders will be watching any signs of policy changes closely. If further investigations suggest actual restrictions could be introduced, there may be more price movements. That also means volatility remains a likely feature in the weeks ahead. While the current price rise has been strong, what happens next depends on policy announcements, trade discussions, and how global producers react.

For those trading derivatives, the shifting price relationship between COMEX and LME presents both risk and opportunity. If tariffs come into play, we have seen that they can drive arbitrage spreads quickly in either direction. A rebalancing between the two markets could create short-term moves that wouldn’t typically be as pronounced.

There is also the question of how producers and consumers react. If companies reliant on imported copper start securing more domestic supply in anticipation of restrictions, this could further push up prices. On the other hand, if there is pushback against restrictions, or if investigations do not result in policy changes, we could see some unwinding of the current price movements.

Liquidity conditions will matter as well. Sudden shifts in policy discussions can create short bursts of volatility. If market participants move in quickly, prices can overreact before stabilising again. That makes timing particularly important, as changes in sentiment may not take long to materialise in futures pricing.

For now, traders should be watching developments in Washington closely. If talks of tariffs become more concrete, additional market moves are likely. At the same time, reactions from global producers and consumers will also influence the direction of prices. Each element feeds into the overall picture, and keeping track of these moving pieces will be essential in the coming weeks.

The EURUSD pair remains stable, with price movements limited as the market anticipates important reports in the coming weeks. The USD has shown strength against major currencies due to negative data releases from the US, including a weak Flash Services PMI and low Consumer Confidence.

Inflation expectations have reached new highs, raising concerns about the Federal Reserve’s ability to lower rates while inflation persists above target. Upcoming NFP and CPI reports will influence the March FOMC decision.

On the EUR side, the ECB has adopted a more cautious approach, indicating that rapid rate cuts are not likely. Eurozone PMIs suggest steady growth, and a 25 basis point cut is anticipated in the upcoming meeting.

In terms of technical analysis, the EURUSD is trading near the 1.0532 resistance level, with potential for sellers to enter the market. A pullback is expected towards the upward trendline on the 4-hour chart, while buyers aim for a rally towards the 1.06 level.

The 1-hour chart indicates buyers may focus on the trendline for support, while sellers will look for a breach to target 1.02. The market remains cautious amid limited information.

Upcoming economic data includes US Jobless Claims figures and CPI releases from France and Germany, along with US PCE data, all expected to impact market dynamics.

A steady EURUSD suggests that traders are holding back, waiting for clearer economic signals before committing to a direction. Recent reports from the US have painted a mixed picture, with underwhelming consumer confidence and weaker services activity weighing on the dollar. Despite this, the currency has held firm against its counterparts, as inflation remains stubbornly high and complicates the Federal Reserve’s policy options. Markets will be focused on the upcoming Non-Farm Payrolls and Consumer Price Index figures, which could shape expectations ahead of the next Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

On the other side, Christine and her team have opted for a defensive stance, implying that rate cuts will not come as quickly as some might have anticipated. Business surveys suggest that economic activity is holding up, dampening speculation of aggressive easing. A marginal reduction of 25 basis points remains on the table, though policymakers appear in no rush to make abrupt changes.

From a technical standpoint, price action is gravitating towards a key resistance level, where sellers frequently emerge. A corrective move lower is likely, particularly with a trendline providing an area of interest for potential buyers. If the pair struggles to sustain gains towards 1.06, downward pressure could build.

A narrower focus on short-term charts highlights a battleground forming around a key support area. Bulls are watching this level closely, while those favouring the downside are waiting for a break to push towards 1.02. The lack of new developments has kept sentiment restrained, though incoming data could quickly change that.

Looking ahead, several economic reports stand to stir volatility. Weekly jobless claims will offer insight into the strength of the labour market, while inflation figures from France and Germany will contribute to the broader discussion on prices in the euro area. The US Personal Consumption Expenditures index, being the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, holds weight and could steer expectations for monetary policy. With various data points on the horizon, traders should be prepared for shifting sentiment.