EUR/USD is approaching the 1.0500 level this week, influenced by a weaker dollar following softer US consumer confidence data. The closing price yesterday was 1.0512, but it does not indicate a convincing breakout at this stage.

The 100-day moving average, currently at 1.0537, serves as another important technical point. Buyers face challenges in surpassing the 1.0500 mark and need to break above the moving average to demonstrate stronger momentum.

Minimal catalysts are expected today, leading to a focus on market fluctuations. Larger option expirations may limit price movement below the 1.0500-30 range before US trading begins.

Market behaviours, particularly month-end flows, will be significant in the coming days. Technical analysis remains essential for understanding potential trends for EUR/USD this week.

The euro is struggling to gain ground, even as the dollar softens. Despite moving higher yesterday, it has yet to establish a clear direction. At present, there isn’t enough strength to claim a definitive move beyond 1.0500. Traders remain cautious, watching whether the level holds or if buyers manage to push past resistance at the 100-day moving average.

The day ahead is unlikely to bring anything unexpected, at least in terms of economic catalysts. Without fresh data releases or policy shifts, price movements will likely depend on sentiment and positioning. Larger option expirations set to take place could keep fluctuations within a relatively tight area. This explains why activity may remain contained below 1.0530 until later in the day when US traders become more active.

As we near the end of the month, attention shifts slightly. Some flows tied to portfolio adjustments could create short bursts of momentum. These movements are typically harder to predict but can lead to brief shake-ups in direction. For now, the technical side of things is driving most of the narrative. The 1.0537 level remains a hurdle buyers must clear to gain momentum, while a dip below 1.0500 without recovery could open the door for further declines.

Looking ahead, volatility might pick up with the release of more economic data later in the week. Until then, traders should consider how existing market structure is influencing price action. The lack of strong conviction so far suggests caution until a clearer trend emerges.

On Wednesday, silver prices increased to $31.82 per troy ounce, marking a rise of 0.48% from Tuesday’s $31.67. Since the start of the year, silver has appreciated by 10.12%.

The Gold/Silver ratio was measured at 91.65, down from 91.99 the previous day. This ratio indicates how many ounces of silver are needed to equal the value of one ounce of gold.

Silver’s price is influenced by factors such as geopolitical instability, interest rates, and the performance of the US Dollar. Additionally, both industrial demand and recycling rates contribute to its valuation.

Silver is used extensively in industries like electronics and solar energy. Changes in demand from major economies such as the US, China, and India can also impact silver prices significantly.

This movement in silver prices serves as a reminder of the metal’s dual role as both an investment asset and an industrial commodity. When prices move higher while the Gold/Silver ratio declines, it suggests that silver is gaining strength compared to gold. This could point to renewed demand from investors or industrial buyers adjusting their purchasing strategies.

At its current level, the Gold/Silver ratio remains historically high, which tells us that silver is still relatively undervalued compared to gold. Traders often watch this figure closely, as periods of high ratios have historically resulted in silver price surges when market sentiment shifts. If this trend continues, we may see stronger momentum for silver in the weeks ahead.

Interest rates and currency values are always a talking point, and right now they play a role in shaping silver’s path. A weaker US dollar typically supports higher metal prices, as it makes silver more affordable in other currencies. If central banks continue adjusting interest rates, the effect on the dollar could influence silver’s movement. Monitoring statements from policymakers will be important as we assess potential price direction.

On the industrial side, demand for silver spans multiple sectors, including electronics and solar technology. Any reports indicating growth or slowdowns in these areas could alter price expectations. Likewise, demand from large economies such as the US, China, and India remains a factor. Recent economic data or trade policies affecting these countries may shift how industries approach silver purchases.

Given these elements, tracking how silver responds over the next few weeks could give traders an opportunity to adjust their strategies accordingly. If geopolitical concerns drive more investors towards precious metals or if industrial buyers ramp up their orders, silver’s price may reflect these shifts. It’s always worth keeping in mind where supply and recycling fit into the picture, as tighter availability can alter short-term pricing dynamics.

European indices are set for a recovery this week following a decline last week. Despite the downturn, regional equities have performed well in February.

French stocks remain down for the week, but the overall sentiment is improved, aided by higher US futures. The S&P 500 futures have risen by 0.4%, driven by strong performance in tech shares, particularly Nvidia, whose earnings are anticipated after market close.

US indices continue to show declines for the week, but the S&P 500 is maintaining its position above the 100-day moving average, currently at 5,946.

This uptick in US futures provides a welcome shift in sentiment following last week’s losses. European markets felt the downward pull, yet February’s broader trend remains clear: regional equities have shown resilience. The recent pressure on French stocks has not completely reversed, but the mood has improved—helped in part by the recovery in US markets.

Nvidia’s upcoming earnings release is attracting attention, particularly given the firm’s recent role in pushing tech shares higher. A 0.4% gain in S&P 500 futures reflects optimism in that space, reinforcing the idea that investors are still willing to take on risk in certain areas, especially those tied to artificial intelligence. The tech sector’s strength may serve as an early signal of further upside potential if earnings do not disappoint.

Despite losses earlier in the week, US markets are holding key levels. The S&P 500 remains above its 100-day moving average, now standing at 5,946. That suggests underlying support, as buyers have stepped in before markets could fall further. A break below this point would be watched closely, but for now, stability around this level could encourage further buying.

For traders navigating the next few weeks, attention should remain on momentum in tech-heavy indices. The performance of Nvidia in the post-earnings session will be closely followed, as it could determine sentiment across global equities. If the reaction is positive, it may provide the push needed to extend recent gains, particularly in European markets where the mood has been improving.

Meanwhile, any signals from central banks could tip the balance. Interest rate expectations continue to shift, with traders weighing how sticky inflation might influence policy moves. That factor will remain in focus, especially if economic data supports or challenges current market expectations.

For now, the short-term direction remains tied to whether tech strength persists and whether broader indices can maintain support levels.

Silver price (XAG/USD) has halted its three-day decline, currently trading around $31.80 per troy ounce. Technical analysis suggests a bearish outlook, with prices below the ascending channel’s lower boundary and both the nine-day and 14-day Exponential Moving Averages.

Initial support is seen at the psychological level of $31.00, where a break could lead to further declines towards the five-month low of $28.74. Resistance levels are indicated at the 14-day EMA of $32.12 and the nine-day EMA of $32.19, with potential recovery towards the four-month high of $33.40 if a breakout occurs.

Silver prices are influenced by various factors, including geopolitical instability, US dollar movements, interest rates, and industrial demand. In particular, the dynamics of the US, Chinese, and Indian economies affect prices due to their significant silver usage.

The correlation between Silver and Gold prices often holds, with the Gold/Silver ratio providing insight into their valuation. A high ratio suggests Silver may be undervalued relative to Gold, while a low ratio implies the opposite.

What we are seeing now is a temporary pause in the downward movement, but the broader technical picture is far from reassuring. Prices remain under the lower boundary of an ascending channel, with both the nine-day and 14-day Exponential Moving Averages acting as overhead resistance. As things stand, without a decisive move above these levels, any recovery attempts may struggle to gain ground.

The $31.00 mark is psychologically important. A failure to hold above this level could open the door to much lower prices, likely bringing back the five-month low of $28.74 into view. Given the weight of prior trading activity around that region, a break below could generate downside momentum, pushing traders to adopt a more defensive stance. On the other hand, if Silver can reclaim the nine-day and 14-day EMAs and sustain levels above them, then a move towards the four-month high of $33.40 becomes viable. That would likely signal a shift in sentiment, though momentum needs to confirm any potential breakout.

Beyond the technicals, various external forces are shaping market direction. The strength of the US dollar, interest rate expectations, and geopolitical unrest all feed into pricing dynamics. With China and India being heavy consumers of Silver, any economic data from these countries should not be ignored. Industrial demand, particularly from sectors such as electronics and solar energy, continues to play a role, but macroeconomic influences often dictate short-term price swings.

The relationship between Gold and Silver remains relevant. Historically, their prices tend to move together, though not always in perfect sync. The Gold/Silver ratio remains a useful gauge of relative valuation. A jump in the ratio can indicate that Silver is lagging and potentially undervalued against Gold, while a lower ratio signals the opposite.

Given the current setup, traders should pay close attention to whether the $31.00 support holds or fails, as well as how prices react near the EMAs. If downward pressure resumes, risk management will become even more important in the coming sessions.

Latest figures from INSEE show France’s consumer confidence index at 93 in February 2025, matching expectations but higher than the prior month’s reading of 92. This is the best rating recorded since October 2024, indicating a gradual improvement in consumer morale since the start of the year.

However, the index remains below the long-term average of 100, signalling ongoing uncertainties. Additionally, concerns about unemployment have risen, with the index reaching 55, the highest level since April 2021.

A reading of 93 suggests confidence is picking up, though it remains lower than the historical norm. Households are more optimistic than they were at the end of last year, but not enough to suggest a major shift in sentiment. With inflation pressures easing in recent months, spending appetite appears to be recovering slightly. That said, the figure remains well short of pre-pandemic levels, and caution persists.

The worry over jobs stands out. The unemployment concerns index climbing to 55 means a growing number of people fear job losses. It is the highest in nearly four years, pointing to lingering nervousness despite steady hiring trends over the last few months. Often, when job security becomes a larger worry, consumers hold back on discretionary spending. That could slow down any pick-up in domestic demand, even with the overall confidence figure showing modest gains.

Inflation expectations have also moderated, helping tilt sentiment upwards. Nonetheless, if households expect job risks to rise, any boost from lower inflation may be muted. The timing here matters—if labour market concerns increase while expectations for price stability improve, spending patterns may not change as much as anticipated.

Looking further ahead, these factors influence market sentiment beyond just consumer activity. Traders assessing near-term demand trends should watch upcoming employment data closely. If job-related worries persist, there may be knock-on effects on retail sales and broader growth expectations. Any divergence between household confidence and business sentiment surveys could hint at whether this soft improvement carries weight or remains fragile.

Upcoming economic releases will be key in shaping expectations, especially inflation and wage growth figures. If wage data shows strong increases, that could alleviate some concerns around job security. On the other hand, weak earnings growth may reinforce the caution already visible in the data. Labour market trends, particularly in key industries, will determine whether consumers feel secure enough to maintain spending patterns as the year progresses.

Germany’s GfK consumer confidence for March stands at -24.7, lower than the anticipated -21.4. This decline reflects a fall in income expectations, which have hit a 13-month low.

Factors such as rising prices, persistent political uncertainties, and a recession in the manufacturing sector are impacting consumer sentiment. Additionally, the willingness of households to spend has decreased to its lowest point since June of the previous year, indicating economic challenges.

These figures indicate that households in Germany are feeling increasingly cautious about their financial prospects. When expectations regarding income drop to this extent, it often suggests that consumers foresee a period of weaker earnings, higher living costs, or both. Given that these expectations have now fallen to their lowest levels in over a year, it is clear that confidence in economic stability has been shaken.

We are also seeing weaker appetite for spending, which is not unexpected when sentiment takes a hit like this. Consumer behaviour typically follows a pattern—when confidence declines, people become more reluctant to make discretionary purchases, instead prioritising essentials. This shift reduces overall consumption, which in turn slows down economic growth. It is worth paying attention to the timing as well; spending caution reaching its lowest point since June suggests that any post-summer improvement in sentiment has been erased.

There are multiple forces at play here. Inflation continues to squeeze household budgets, limiting disposable income. Political uncertainty remains an issue, as unresolved challenges both within Germany and across Europe create unpredictability. The downturn in manufacturing is another factor that cannot be overlooked. Germany’s industrial sector plays a key role in economic output, and when it struggles, it often leads to job insecurity and weaker growth expectations.

Looking ahead, it is important to gauge how sentiment shifts from here. If further declines in consumer confidence materialise, it could reinforce a downward cycle where reduced spending affects business earnings, which then impacts hiring decisions and wage growth. However, any signs of improvement in economic conditions, such as easing inflation or policy measures aimed at supporting households, could bring some relief.

Those monitoring developments should assess incoming data carefully, particularly any updates on inflation trends, labour market conditions, and further sentiment reports. Adjustments in expectations could provide insight into whether this downturn is temporary or part of a deeper economic trend.

The ZEW survey for Switzerland recorded a drop in expectations to 3.4 in February from 17.7 previously. This decrease indicates a more pessimistic outlook among respondents.

In currency markets, EUR/USD is trading under 1.0500 due to a modest recovery of the USD. Meanwhile, GBP/USD stabilises around 1.2650, affected by recovering US Treasury bond yields.

Gold prices rebound to stay above $2,900 following a decline, while Bitcoin trades around $88,800, having experienced a significant drop from its all-time high, partly due to large outflows from Bitcoin spot ETFs.

Inflation in February is expected to fall sharply in France, spurred by a reduction in regulated electricity prices. Overall, while disinflation appears widespread, prices in services are still increasing across the Eurozone.

The drop in Swiss economic expectations, from 17.7 to 3.4, suggests that sentiment among respondents has taken a downturn. A sharp move like this normally hints at concerns regarding the months ahead. Whether this stems from domestic economic conditions or external pressures, it suggests hesitation about growth prospects. When expectations fall this much, market participants tend to tread carefully, particularly those dealing with interest-rate-sensitive assets.

The currency market reflects some notable developments. With EUR/USD struggling below 1.0500, the dollar’s recovery appears to be exerting pressure. A firmer USD often weighs on the euro, especially when US bond yields edge higher and encourage capital flows toward dollar-denominated assets. GBP/USD, on the other hand, is pausing near 1.2650, as rising US Treasury yields exert a balancing act. The relationship between sterling and the US dollar is always influenced by yield differentials, so traders should monitor any additional bond market adjustments. Signs of firming yields may sustain USD demand, forcing both EUR/USD and GBP/USD to remain under pressure.

Gold has managed to hold its ground above $2,900 following a pronounced dip. The ability to rebound suggests ongoing demand, despite recent declines. Movement in gold is often tied to interest rate expectations, shifts in inflation sentiment, and broader fluctuations in risk appetite. If US yields keep climbing, maintaining these levels could be a challenge, though persistent inflation concerns may yet offer support.

Bitcoin’s retreat to around $88,800 follows a steep pullback from its peak, largely influenced by sizable outflows from spot ETFs. These outflows reflect profit-taking, shifts in sentiment, or broader portfolio rebalancing. Given how strongly ETFs have shaped liquidity in recent months, further outflows could prolong downside pressure. However, any signs of renewed institutional demand could stem the slide.

On the inflation front, February’s data in France is set to show a sharp cooling, largely driven by reductions in regulated electricity prices. While the overall trend points to slowing inflation, service-sector prices across the Eurozone continue rising. This divergence matters, as sticky services inflation could keep central banks hesitant about cutting interest rates too soon. Investors should watch for any signs that slowing inflation in goods is broad enough to outweigh persistent strength in services prices.

EUR/USD has key expiries at 1.0500 to 1.0530, with the pair approaching a potential breakout above 1.0500 this week. The 100-day moving average currently sits at 1.0537, providing additional resistance for buyers.

For USD/JPY, there is an expiry at 150.00, but the pair remains below its 100-hour moving average of 149.67 since the week began. If the pair rallies, the expiries may restrict movement in European morning trade.

Lastly, the expiry for USD/CHF is at 0.8955, with the pair aiming for a downside test of its 100-day moving average at 0.8901 following last week’s decline.

The mentioned levels are essential reference points that options traders will have in mind when positioning themselves. Expiry-related flows often generate temporary barriers, especially when spot prices approach them near the cut-off time.

For the euro against the dollar, the range between 1.0500 and 1.0530 holds weight this week. With the price drawing closer to a potential break above 1.0500, movement could become more unpredictable. The 100-day moving average, resting at 1.0537, presents an added obstacle. If the pair advances, that level might encourage some to offload positions, causing price hesitation. However, should it remain under pressure, sellers may attempt to reclaim control, preventing an extended rally.

The dollar-yen situation looks different. An expiry sits at 150.00, but prices have yet to reclaim the 100-hour moving average at 149.67 since Monday. If buyers push higher, the expiry level could slow further appreciation, particularly during European trading hours. On the other hand, if downward momentum builds before reaching that threshold, the path of least resistance may lean towards lower levels rather than a test of 150.00.

As for the Swiss franc pair, an expiry at 0.8955 is in focus. With the dollar slipping over the past week, attention is shifting towards support at the 100-day moving average, currently positioned at 0.8901. If bearish pressure continues, that level will become a testing ground. Those looking for a rebound may step in there, but failure to hold could encourage further selling interest.

Market participants will need to monitor how prices interact with these levels in the sessions ahead. Expiries can slow sharp moves, but they do not always dictate long-term direction. Trading activity near these thresholds deserves attention, especially if liquidity thins or broader technical patterns begin to shift.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) is projected to trade between 0.6325 and 0.6365 against the US Dollar (USD). In the long term, AUD is expected to consolidate within a range of 0.6280 to 0.6410 due to fading upward momentum.

Recent observations indicated a slight increase in downward pressure, resulting in a dip to 0.6323, before closing at 0.6344, down 0.09%. The expectation for today is continued trading within 0.6325 to 0.6365.

On February 25, the AUD’s outlook was revised to neutral, reflecting the reduced upward momentum. The proposed range remains unchanged.

What we are witnessing now is a period where the Australian Dollar has lost some of its previous strength, settling into a relatively narrow band. The dip to 0.6323 before recovering slightly to 0.6344 suggests that support remains, but any meaningful push upwards appears to be lacking.

With today’s expectations maintaining the 0.6325 to 0.6365 zone, it suggests stability, though not without its challenges. The shift to a neutral stance on 25 February wasn’t without reason. The fading ability to move higher has kept the currency from making any decisive moves in either direction.

Nathan and his team had previously hinted at this phase of reduced momentum, and that assessment is playing out as expected. Traders focusing on derivatives should consider what this means beyond mere short-term levels. When volatility remains low and a currency consolidates within set boundaries, one approach is to position trades around these levels rather than anticipating a breakout.

James has pointed out that markets can stay rangebound for longer than expected, especially when external drivers are lacking. This means that for now, any aggressive directional trades should be approached with caution. Market participants should also keep a close watch for any macroeconomic developments that could introduce fresh momentum.

Short-term, the strategy remains straightforward—recognising the areas where price is holding and adjusting as needed. The longer-term range of 0.6280 to 0.6410 remains in place, reinforcing the idea that while movement exists, it’s unlikely to break out of these boundaries just yet. The reduced upward momentum suggests patience is required when looking for opportunities.

A careful approach remains the best course of action as we move forward. Emma highlighted that external factors such as interest rate expectations or economic data could be the missing ingredient needed to jolt the market—but until then, traders should work with what they have in front of them.

Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin will deliver a speech titled “Inflation Then and Now” at the Northern Virginia Chamber of Commerce. The event is set to take place at 1330 GMT, which corresponds to 0830 US Eastern Time.

Thomas is scheduled to speak on inflation, comparing past trends to present conditions. His remarks will likely provide insight into how policymakers view recent price movements and what that means for future monetary policy. Given his role at the Richmond Fed, his perspective carries weight, and traders will be listening for any hints about interest rates or broader economic conditions.

When central bankers speak, they do so with carefully chosen words. If he acknowledges that inflation remains stubborn or hints at further pressure on prices, it could push expectations towards tighter monetary policy. Conversely, if he suggests inflation is moderating as anticipated, markets could adjust in the opposite direction. Every phrase will be scrutinised for shifts in tone or outlook.

Markets tend to react not only to the content of speeches like this but also to their timing. His remarks come amid ongoing debates about whether the Federal Reserve has finished raising interest rates or if further action is needed. If his rhetoric aligns with recent statements from his colleagues, it could reinforce existing positions. However, if he diverges or implies new risks, that might spark short-term adjustments.

Those following interest rate movements should pay attention to whether Thomas links current inflation behaviour to any broader trends in employment or spending. If he connects higher-than-expected price pressures to consumer demand, that could be seen as a reason for the Fed to maintain its stance. On the other hand, if he attributes recent inflation trends to temporary factors, that may soften expectations of further tightening.

By the time he finishes speaking, traders will have parsed his comments for any indication of whether economic data is pushing policymakers in one direction or another. It won’t just be about what he says explicitly—what he chooses not to mention could be equally telling.