Pound Sterling weakens to around 1.3610 as government crisis unfolds
The GBP/USD pair is currently around 1.3600 as the Pound Sterling encounters difficulties amid a UK government crisis. The resignation of Morgan McSweeney, the Chief of Staff at Downing Street, due to an appointment scandal, has raised further worries.
The US Dollar is under pressure due to delays in economic reports following a partial government shutdown. Key upcoming reports include January’s jobs figures and consumer price index. February interest rates are expected to remain unchanged, with cuts anticipated in mid-2023.
Gold stays steady above $5,000 despite mixed signals and a weaker dollar
Gold’s recent price changes show it lacks strong upward momentum, even with supportive factors like ongoing Gold purchases from China, expected Federal Reserve rate cuts, and a slightly weaker US Dollar. In January, the People’s Bank of China increased its gold reserves for the 15th month in a row, adding 40,000 troy ounces to reach 74.19 million ounces. This rising demand from China highlights fiscal concerns in major economies, with the value of gold reserves hitting $369.58 billion last month.
US Monetary Policy Developments
The US monetary policy seems to be moving toward a more relaxed approach. Traders expect more Fed rate cuts by 2026, especially after recent signs of weakness in the US labor market. Political events are raising concerns about the independence of the central bank. US President Donald Trump suggested possible legal action against Federal Reserve chair nominee Kevin Warsh if interest rates don’t drop. Additionally, the trend of dedollarization is continuing, which is causing the US Dollar to weaken from its recent highs and slightly encouraging investment in Gold. However, a generally positive risk environment, stemming from decreased tensions in the Middle East, keeps Gold’s traditional safe-haven appeal in check. Recent US-Iran negotiations led to an agreement for diplomatic solutions, drawing investment interest away from safer assets. Investors are also wary as they await critical US economic data later this week. The delayed Nonfarm Payrolls report on Wednesday and Friday’s consumer inflation figures are expected to influence future demand for the USD and impact the XAU/USD pairing. Technical indicators are sending mixed signals. Gold is hovering around the 200-hour Simple Moving Average, which presents immediate resistance. If Gold can stay above this level, it may trigger bullish trading. However, a rejection could favor sellers. A sustained risk-on sentiment also influences global currency dynamics, benefiting countries dependent on commodity exports, such as the Australian, Canadian, and New Zealand Dollars. In contrast, during risk-off periods, safe-haven currencies like the US Dollar, Japanese Yen, and Swiss Franc typically appreciate due to their lower-risk profiles in uncertain economic times. Gold currently finds itself between competing forces, resulting in a sideways market ahead of important economic data this week. The upcoming Nonfarm Payrolls report on Wednesday and inflation data on Friday are likely to break this stalemate. Derivative traders should prepare for an increase in volatility around these announcements.Gold’s Bullish and Bearish Scenarios
The bullish case for Gold is backed by strong demand from central banks and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts. In 2025, central banks worldwide added over 1,000 tonnes of gold to their reserves for the second consecutive year, primarily led by the People’s Bank of China. Traders anticipating an upside surprise from the upcoming data might consider buying call options to capitalize on potential gains while limiting downside risk. Political uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve’s independence is also supporting prices. The unusual public pressure on the new Fed chair to lower rates weakens the US Dollar, which historically has an inverse relationship with gold. This ongoing situation offers additional support that is separate from typical economic indicators. On the flip side, the current risk-on sentiment poses challenges for Gold. The S&P 500 saw a 3% gain in January 2026, and easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East provide investors less incentive to hold safe-haven assets. This positive outlook is preventing significant rallies in Gold for now. Given the upcoming binary data releases, strategies that benefit from volatility are appealing. We expect the Gold Volatility Index (GVZ) to rise in the coming days, similar to spikes seen before significant announcements in the past. Thus, buying straddles or strangles could be a smart strategy to profit from a major price movement, no matter the direction. We are also monitoring currencies for correlated movements based on US data outcomes. A strong report would likely boost risk-on currencies like the Australian Dollar, while a weak report would benefit safe-havens like the Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc. These currencies can be traded as a proxy or hedge for positions in Gold. This situation feels familiar, reminiscent of late 2023 when market confidence about upcoming Fed rate cuts drove Gold to new heights despite a relatively stable economy. The key difference now is the robust performance of equities, which is competing for investor capital. How the market balances these elements after this week’s data will shape the trend for the coming weeks. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.Analysts from Societe Generale discuss Tether’s impact on gold, surpassing ETFs and central banks.
Tether is growing its gold holdings, which are starting to make a real impact on the gold market. Their gold investments can compete with those of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and some central banks. As of the last quarter, Tether managed 125 tonnes of gold, ranking it as the 36th-largest holder according to World Gold Council. This is impressive, especially since Tether is not an official central bank.
In the fourth quarter of 2025, Tether bought more gold than all but two central banks: Poland and Brazil. This amount of 125 tonnes makes Tether the 8th-largest ETF by tonnage, even though it is actually a digital-asset issuer. This shows how quickly Tether is becoming an important player in the global gold markets.
The gold market is changing. Tether’s large purchases of gold in late 2025 introduced a new key buyer. This buyer’s demand is now influencing prices, separate from traditional players.
This shift may help explain why the price of gold has gained over 3% this year, reaching about $2,450 an ounce, even when major gold ETFs were seeing consistent outflows in January 2026. While traditional investors have been selling, Tether’s steady buying seems to support the market. This creates a unique opportunity for us.
However, this demand, linked to the cryptocurrency markets, adds a layer of unpredictability and potential for volatility. We have noticed that gold’s implied volatility has increased nearly 10% from its lows in late 2025. This suggests that the market is beginning to account for this uncertainty. In this environment, long volatility strategies, like buying straddles, become more appealing to protect against sudden price movements.
To predict gold’s future, we should keep a close eye on stablecoin market capitalization, just as we do with central bank announcements. USDT’s market cap reached a new high of $150 billion this month, which likely means Tether will continue to have strong purchasing power for gold. If this trend weakens or reverses, it could significantly affect gold demand.
This ongoing and somewhat insatiable buying pressure may require us to rethink historical resistance levels for gold. In past rallies during 2024 and 2025, prices often struggled with inflation data or hawkish policies from the Fed. Now, with a significant buyer whose motives are unrelated to those factors, we could see prices break through past resistance levels.
Singapore’s foreign reserves rose to 417 billion in January, compared to 409.3 billion previously.
Singapore’s foreign reserves rose to $417 billion in January, up from $409.3 billion. This information helps the market understand economic trends and make decisions.
Gold remains valuable, staying above $5,000 after significant gains. The People’s Bank of China continues buying gold, which aligns with expectations regarding the US Federal Reserve’s policies and their impact on the dollar.
Currency Market Movements
The EUR/USD pair stays strong, trading above 1.1850 due to a weaker US Dollar. GBP/USD is around 1.3610 amid political instability in the UK, which may affect currency movement. Cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Ripple are stabilizing after recent corrections. Bitcoin is holding steady around $70,000, while Ethereum and Ripple are facing key resistance levels. Forex brokers are being assessed for 2026, focusing on factors like low spreads, high leverage, and regional advantages. These evaluations help traders make informed broker choices. This information does not serve as investment advice. It is crucial to do thorough research due to inherent risks. The author and FXStreet do not take responsibility for any inaccuracies or financial consequences.US Dollar Weakness
With the ongoing weakness of the US Dollar, we believe the best strategy is to prepare for further decline in the coming weeks. The important US employment report on Wednesday will be a significant factor, with expectations of about 150,000 jobs added. If the number comes in lower, it could speed up the dollar’s decline, making short-dated put options on the US Dollar Index (DXY) a smart hedge. Gold’s trend is very strong, and there’s no reason to oppose it while it stays above $5,000. Central banks have heavily supported gold, adding over 1,000 tonnes to their reserves in 2025, and this trend appears to be continuing. Traders should think about buying call options on XAU/USD or using bull call spreads to manage costs while maintaining growth potential. The Euro is trading firmly above 1.1850, clearly benefiting from the weak dollar situation. We expect this strength to persist, particularly if upcoming speeches from Fed officials remain dovish. Long positions through EUR/USD futures or call options aimed at the 1.2000 psychological level seem suitable in this context. The Pound’s struggle to benefit from the weak dollar reflects its domestic challenges, presenting a valuable cross-currency opportunity. The ongoing crisis in the UK government is putting pressure on the Pound, similar to its underperformance during political instability in 2022. We see a promising trade by going long EUR/GBP, using derivatives to profit from the Euro’s strength against the Pound. In Japan, a new political mandate hints at a potential policy shift that could strengthen the Yen. While this is a long-term outlook, volatility in USD/JPY is expected to rise as speculation grows. Purchasing long-dated put options on USD/JPY could be a way to position for a possible strengthening of the Yen over the coming months. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.USD/CHF dips below 0.7750 as traders expect steady rates, currently around 0.7730
The US job market is expected to stabilize, with Nonfarm Payrolls predicted to grow by 70,000 jobs and the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.4%. The January consumer price index report, delayed until Friday, will influence how the market views these trends.
Interest Rate Expectations
The Federal Reserve is likely to keep interest rates unchanged in March, with possible cuts in June or September. Many Fed officials are stressing the need to stay vigilant about inflation, even as the job market stabilizes. The Swiss Franc (CHF) ranks among the top ten traded currencies worldwide. It is often viewed as a safe-haven currency thanks to Switzerland’s stable economy and neutral political stance. Its value is closely linked to the Euro because of Switzerland’s dependence on the Eurozone, with models indicating over 90% correlation. In 2025, market predictions suggested a weak US dollar and a steady Swiss franc. Analysts expected the USD/CHF pair to stay low, around 0.7730, since the Fed was likely to cut rates while the Swiss National Bank (SNB) maintained its position. This outlook was based on a labor market that was stabilizing but not strongly growing. As of today, February 9, 2026, this situation has changed. The latest US Nonfarm Payrolls report for January 2026 revealed a surprising gain of 215,000 jobs, lifting the USD/CHF pair to about 0.8850. This is a stark contrast to the modest forecast of 70,000 job gains from early 2025.Market Strategies
On the Swiss side, little has changed, which is a key reason for the franc’s current weakness. Swiss inflation for January 2026 was reported at just 1.4%, well below the SNB’s 2% target. This suggests that the SNB has no reason to raise interest rates, making Swiss rates less appealing. After cutting rates twice in 2025, the Federal Reserve is now signaling a pause due to a strong labor market and ongoing inflation. This difference in approaches—between a Fed that is becoming more hawkish and a neutral SNB—suggests that the USD/CHF is likely to keep rising. We believe the factors supporting a stronger dollar against the franc are now stronger than they were a year ago. For traders focused on derivatives, this environment is good for strategies that take advantage of rising USD/CHF momentum. We recommend buying call options with strike prices of 0.8900 and 0.9000, expiring in the next 4 to 8 weeks. This allows traders to join in potential gains while limiting maximum risk. Additionally, selling out-of-the-money put options can be a wise strategy to earn premiums. For example, selling a put option with a strike price of 0.8700 plays into our belief that any declines will be minor and brief. However, traders should stay alert for any sudden negative US economic news that could impact the market. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.Yen strengthens after Takaichi’s electoral win, causing GBP/JPY to drop to around 212.60
The GBP/JPY has dropped to around 212.60 after Japan’s Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi won the election decisively, which boosted the Yen. The currency pair fell nearly 200 pips from its high of 214.41, following the election where the Liberal Democratic Party secured 316 out of 465 seats in the Lower House.
The strong government outlook has calmed the market, leading to fewer short positions on the Yen. However, Japan still faces financial issues that may hinder a long-term recovery of its currency. Japan’s currency diplomat, Atsushi Mimura, hinted at possible intervention due to the government’s urgent concerns about currency fluctuations.
Political Issues Impacting GBP
In the UK, a political crisis is affecting the Pound. Morgan McSweeney resigned amid controversy surrounding Peter Mandelson’s appointment as US ambassador. Mandelson’s alleged role in leaking government information could further destabilize UK politics and negatively impact the Pound. The value of the Japanese Yen is influenced by Japan’s economic performance, policies from the Bank of Japan (BoJ), bond yield differences, and overall market sentiment. The BoJ’s earlier ultra-loose monetary policy weakened the Yen, but recent policy changes have provided some support. As a safe-haven currency, the Yen gains value during market stress. Looking back to 2025, the Yen briefly strengthened after Prime Minister Takaichi’s election win, but that uplift has worn off. Financial concerns in Japan quickly brought attention back to the differences in monetary policies. Today, with GBP/JPY trading near 218.50, the market tells a different story than just after the election. The Bank of Japan is cautious, even with core inflation holding steady at 2.7% last month. The BoJ’s policy rate is only 0.25%, and the stimulus measures from last year haven’t led to significant monetary tightening that would strengthen the Yen fundamentally. The central bank indicates that any future rate hikes will be slow and depend on data, limiting the Yen’s potential.Economic Factors Affecting GBP/JPY Dynamics
Meanwhile, the UK continues to deal with high inflation, which stood at 3.4% in January 2026. This situation has forced the Bank of England to keep its bank rate at 4.75%, creating a significant yield advantage over Japan. Political noise from the Starmer government, following last year’s cabinet scandal, has not disrupted this attractive carry trade dynamic. For derivative traders, this environment suggests that long GBP/JPY positions are still favorable due to the yield advantage. Using futures contracts can help traders capitalize on the interest rate gap. The steady trend since late 2025 supports strategies that benefit from ongoing, gradual appreciation of Sterling against the Yen. However, traders should be cautious of potential intervention from Japanese authorities as the pair nears the 220.00 level. We’ve seen officials react vocally in the past when the currency weakened significantly, and recent warnings from the Ministry of Finance are serious. This makes buying long-dated GBP/JPY call options a smart strategy to capture possible upside while defining maximum risk. Given the threat of sudden intervention, traders holding long positions should consider protecting their exposure. Buying out-of-the-money put options can serve as affordable insurance against a sharp, unexpected reversal. This approach allows traders to stay in the profitable carry trade while safeguarding capital against risks that could disrupt the current trend in the coming weeks. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.A weekly low formed just above 6730, missing a possible buying opportunity in Emini S&P futures.
Emini S&P March futures came close to strong support at 6740/6730 but finished just above it, missing a buying chance. They then rallied past targets, hitting 6965 and forming a bullish engulfing candle. This hints at the possibility of new highs, although there’s still some consolidation under 7043.
Emini Nasdaq March futures touched strong support at 24200/24000, narrowly avoiding a buy point. Nonetheless, a bullish engulfing candle appeared, showing optimism. The first resistance levels are at 25230/25250, with a buy signal expected above 25390, aiming for levels up to 26000 while staying above 25800.
Emini Dow Jones March futures surpassed 50000, closing at a weekly high, indicating possible further gains towards 50500/50600. Strong support lies at 49900/49800. Falling below this could lead to consolidation. Overall, this performance shows strong market control, steering clear of sideways action.
We’re seeing strong signs of bullish momentum, especially with the bullish engulfing candles on the S&P and Nasdaq futures charts. Buyer activity ahead of major support levels last week shows a readiness to push prices higher. This strength aligns with recent economic data. The January jobs report revealed a healthy 215,000 jobs added, while unemployment remained low at 3.6%.
For derivative traders, continuing to buy on dips is still a solid strategy, but entry points might need a more aggressive approach. The dismissal of the “AI bubble” narrative is supported by strong earnings from Q4 2025, particularly in tech due to real AI-related spending. A clear break above notable resistance, like 25390 on the Nasdaq, should be taken as a signal for buying call options or futures.
The Dow Jones reaching a new all-time high above 50,000 confirms broader market strength. This upward trend is supported by a strong economic basis, with last year’s Q4 GDP revised to a solid 2.9% growth rate. As long as the Dow stays above key support like 49900/49800, pullbacks should be seen as opportunities to buy.
Following the recent rally, the VIX has dropped to about 13.5, marking a low not seen since late 2025, making options more affordable. This situation could favor strategies like buying call debit spreads to target higher levels, as selling puts is less appealing. Traders should keep an eye out for a breakout above the consolidation high of 7043 on the S&P to confirm the next upward phase.
JPY bulls remain uncertain amid fiscal challenges and delayed rate hike expectations, despite a slight recovery against the USD.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) has made slight gains as the US Dollar (USD) weakened, thanks to intervention signals from Japanese officials. There’s collaboration with the US to manage chaotic currency movements, particularly after Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s recent election win, which might lead to bigger government spending.
Concerns about Japan’s public debt are rising alongside Takaichi’s anticipated policies. Japan’s real wages have dropped for the 12th month in a row, which pressures the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to be careful with interest rate hikes. This situation also affects the positive mood in the stock market, limiting the JPY’s recovery.
Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) won the election, allowing for potential tax cuts and increased defense spending. The country’s Finance Minister is prepared to stabilize the Yen if needed. In December, Japan’s nominal wages increased by 2.4% year-over-year, but this was below expectations. The BoJ’s future decisions depend on consistent wage growth.
The currency heat map shows that the JPY was strongest against the British Pound. The USD/JPY rate showed stability around 156.20, while technical indicators hinted at pressure or support for this pairing. Market attention will soon turn to US monthly jobs data and consumer inflation numbers.
Currently, we’re witnessing a typical standoff with the yen. Authorities rely on verbal warnings of intervention for support. Back in 2024, they intervened when the USD/JPY surpassed 160, lending credibility to these warnings. However, planned fiscal expansions and weak wage growth from late 2025 continue to weigh down the yen.
This balance of pressures suggests we should expect higher volatility in the next few weeks. The risk of official intervention creates uncertainty, which is likely to keep option prices elevated. This makes strategies aimed at benefiting from large price changes potentially more effective than simple bets.
The Bank of Japan faces significant pressure to refrain from rate hikes, as real wages fell again in December 2025. Additionally, January 2026 data indicated that core inflation in Tokyo cooled to 1.6%, remaining below the BoJ’s 2% target. This makes it hard for the BoJ to justify raising rates soon.
Meanwhile, while there are hopes for two more Federal Reserve rate cuts this year, caution is essential. The US jobs report for January 2026 showed over 350,000 jobs added, which complicates the outlook for an immediate easing cycle. Thus, this week’s jobs and inflation data from the US are crucial for market direction.
Given these mixed signals, we are keeping an eye on the 156.20 level as a key short-term point. If it breaks below this support, it could indicate a more significant decline, but the yen’s weak fundamentals might attract buyers on dips. Therefore, using options to create strategies like strangles, which profit from large price moves in either direction, may be a wise choice.
The US-India trade framework boosts sentiment, supporting the Indian Rupee as USD/INR depreciates.
The Indian Rupee (INR) remains stable as the US and India unveil a new trade framework aimed at lowering tariffs and strengthening their economic relationship. This agreement is in line with Goldman Sachs’ analysis, which expects US tariffs on Indian imports to decrease from 34% to 20%.
Foreign investments in Indian stocks are being closely watched. In February, nearly $900 million worth of Indian equities were bought, showing recovery from January’s $4 billion outflow. At the same time, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has dropped as expectations grow that US interest rates will remain unchanged in March, with potential cuts likely later this year.
USD/INR Shows Bearish Trend
The USD/INR pair is currently bearish, trading around 90.60. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggests that the market is balanced, neither overbought nor oversold. Support is seen at the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 90.48, while resistance is at the 9-day EMA at 90.86. The Indian Rupee’s value is affected by several external factors, including the strength of the US Dollar, foreign investments, and crude oil prices. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) intervenes in currency markets and adjusts interest rates to maintain the exchange rate and keep inflation around 4%. Many macroeconomic factors like GDP growth and trade balance also influence the Rupee’s value. A year ago, the Indian Rupee saw significant strengthening after the announcement of an interim US-India trade framework. This positive trend was further encouraged by a rebound in foreign investments in Indian equities, reversing the large outflows of January 2025. This created an appealing opportunity for traders looking to capitalize on a stronger Rupee. However, the early 2026 environment is more complex. Foreign investors are less enthusiastic, with foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) withdrawing nearly $1.5 billion from Indian equities this year, according to recent data. Additionally, progress on transforming last year’s interim trade framework into a full agreement has been slower than expected, dampening earlier optimism.Federal Reserve’s Changed Approach
In contrast to last year when the US Dollar Index hovered around 97.60, the dollar now shows more strength, trading consistently above 103. The Federal Reserve’s stance has also changed, with ongoing inflation pushing expectations for interest rate cuts further into the second half of 2026. This is quite different from the anticipated cuts in mid-2025 from a year ago. This underlying strength in the US dollar presents challenges for the Rupee. Domestically, the Reserve Bank of India maintains a hawkish approach to control inflation, which remains above its 4% target. Though this helps support the INR, it is countered by high crude oil prices, now around $85 a barrel, increasing India’s import costs. Last year, Brent oil was priced closer to $75-$80, putting less strain on the currency. Because of these mixed factors, traders should be careful about making strong directional bets on the USD/INR pair. The supportive stance from a hawkish RBI and the pressure from a strengthening US dollar and cautious foreign sentiment suggest a period of sideways trading and potential volatility. Strategies that take advantage of this uncertainty, like buying straddles or strangles, may be more effective than simply going long or short in the coming weeks. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.As the US dollar weakens, NZD/USD rises and stays above 0.6000.
The Current Economic Landscape
NZD/USD is holding steady above 0.6000 as the US Dollar weakens. Traders are being cautious ahead of delayed economic data. The US Nonfarm Payrolls report is expected to show a gain of 70,000 jobs, with unemployment steady at 4.4%.
During European hours, the pair is trading around 0.6020. The US Dollar is declining, partly due to the anticipation of delayed key economic data. The jobs report for January, set to release on Wednesday, is expected to show that the labor market is stabilizing.
On Friday, Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index climbed to a six-month high of 57.3, beating expectations of 55.0. There are growing expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates steady in March, with possible cuts in June or September.
In New Zealand, the economic data is mixed. Unemployment has risen to a decade high, even with solid job growth, indicating that a rate hike is unlikely soon. Inflation remains above the target, keeping the door open for future policy tightening.
The market is not fully expecting a rate hike until October, with a 70% chance anticipated for September. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will meet on February 18 under new Governor Anna Breman, and is likely to keep rates unchanged while providing updated economic insights.
The NZD is influenced by New Zealand’s economy, dairy prices, and China’s economy, its biggest trading partner. Decisions made by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, especially about interest rates, have a significant impact on the strength of the NZD.
Analyzing Trading Strategies
On February 9, 2026, NZD/USD is trading near 0.6150. This is a shift from February 2025, when the pair struggled to stay above the 0.6000 mark due to broad weakness in the US Dollar. The current strength requires us to examine the underlying dynamics for trading strategies.
A year ago, we expected a weak US Nonfarm Payrolls report, predicting only 70,000 jobs added. This supported the notion of Federal Reserve rate cuts in June 2025. Today, the situation is different, as the latest jobs report showed a substantial gain of 353,000 jobs. This pushed the expectations for the first Fed rate cut in 2026 to the latter half of the year. This change suggests that buying volatility might be a smart strategy, as timing for cuts is uncertain.
In New Zealand, we continue to see challenges. In early 2025, we noted unemployment hitting a decade high, and now it has recently climbed to 4.0%. Meanwhile, inflation remains stubbornly above the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s target range. This creates a possibility of an RBNZ rate hike, which could benefit the Kiwi against the US Dollar.
We also need to consider external factors affecting the Kiwi, particularly China and dairy prices. Concerns over China’s slowing economy are posing challenges, but the Global Dairy Trade index has recently risen by 4.2% in its latest auction. This provides some support for the currency and complicates bearish positions.
For traders, this mixed environment suggests that positioning for a range or potential breakout is better than chasing a clear trend. Strong US data limits NZD/USD rallies, while a hawkish RBNZ and rising dairy prices offer support, resulting in a delicate balance. Strategies like selling puts to earn premiums on the downside or taking long volatility positions ahead of essential central bank meetings could be effective.
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