Intel stock drops 12% after poor Q1 guidance leads to lowered revenue expectations
Intel’s stock is dropping after the company announced disappointing first-quarter guidance. In premarket trading, the stock fell by 12% as Intel predicted no earnings per share and forecasted revenue that is $360 million below Wall Street’s expectations.
Last quarter, Intel’s results were better than anticipated, with adjusted earnings per share of $0.15, $0.07 higher than projections. Revenue hit $13.7 billion, exceeding expectations by over $300 million. However, ongoing supply issues could hurt the company in the first quarter of 2026.
Intel estimates its first-quarter sales will be between $11.7 billion and $12.7 billion, with an average of $12.2 billion, which is $360 million lower than the consensus estimate. The company’s goal for earnings per share is to break even, while Wall Street expected a profit of $0.05. This news caused Intel shares to drop from $54.32 to $47.50 in premarket trading.
Price targets for Intel stock vary, averaging $46.89, with the highest at $65 and the lowest at $30. Some believe supply issues with Intel’s CPUs will affect results, but contracts with Apple may improve future performance. Despite the current problems, most analysts remain optimistic about Intel’s future in 2026.
Following the significant drop in Intel’s stock on January 23rd, we see a rise in implied volatility. This means options prices have increased due to expectations of larger price swings soon. This situation makes selling options an appealing strategy.
For those who think this guidance points to more trouble, buying put options with February or March expiration dates is a straightforward move. We’re keeping an eye on the $44 support level, which was resistance in December 2025. If the stock falls below this point, it could easily approach the 50-day average around $40, making puts with a $42.50 or $40 strike price attractive.
Conversely, some view this 12% drop as an overreaction, especially given the solid Q4 2025 results. Selling cash-secured puts below the current market price—at the $42 or $40 strike levels—allows us to collect high premiums from the panic. If the stock stays above our strike price, we keep the income; if it falls, we can buy shares at a price we’re comfortable with.
We should also consider the broader market context from the last couple of years as we look at 2026. The semiconductor sector, tracked by the SOXX index, grew over 60% in 2023, showing strong investor interest, especially linked to AI advancements. Intel’s own 150% surge last year was part of this trend, indicating that this issue may be a short-term problem rather than a broader industry downturn.
If we agree with the analysts who are optimistic about Intel’s long-term recovery, buying longer-dated call options could be a smart way to invest. By purchasing calls that expire in June or September, we give Intel time to resolve its supply issues and navigate through this weak first quarter. This strategy lets us profit from a potential rebound toward the $54 highs without needing to buy the stock directly.
Colombia’s retail sales growth was 7.5%, falling short of the expected 12%
Colombia’s retail sales in October rose by 7.5% compared to a year ago. However, this is lower than the expected growth rate of 12%.
This weaker growth points to a dip in consumer spending. The retail sales data for October suggests that there may be economic challenges or changes in how consumers are spending their money.
Analysis Of Economic Trends
Economists and market analysts could see these numbers as a sign of larger economic trends. These trends might involve shifts in consumer confidence or how much disposable income people have. The slowdown in retail sales growth could influence future economic policies. Decision-makers may need to reconsider their strategies based on these trends. The report showing reduced retail sales growth in October 2025 indicated an early sign of a slowing economy in Colombia. Although the 7.5% growth is positive, it is a significant drop from the expected 12%, revealing that consumer spending was losing steam toward the year’s end. This shortfall suggested that high interest rates were starting to take effect.Economic And Market Responses
This trend of economic softness seems to have continued, with data showing a further drop in consumer confidence in the fourth quarter of 2025. This slowdown is affecting inflation expectations, as the inflation rate at the end of 2025 fell to 7.1%, declining more quickly than anticipated. This situation has allowed the central bank to reconsider its policies. In response to the disappointing data, the Banco de la República has already acted by cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December 2025. This signals the beginning of a trend toward lower rates, with futures markets projecting at least another 75 basis points of cuts by mid-2026. Colombian interest rates are likely to decrease in the coming months. The currency market has reflected this shift in perspective over the past quarter. The Colombian Peso has weakened against the dollar, with the USD/COP exchange rate moving from about 4,000 in October to over 4,250 this month. This trend is expected to continue as the interest rate gap with the United States narrows. In light of this situation, we should prepare for potential further weakness in Colombia’s economy and currency. This could involve assessing long positions in USD/COP call options to benefit from a rising exchange rate. Additionally, we might consider put options on the MSCI Colombia ETF (GXG), as corporate earnings are likely to be under pressure from decreasing domestic demand. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.In November, Canadian retail sales excluding automobiles grew by 1.7%, surpassing predictions.
Market Movements
Market movements are influenced by several factors. Demand for safe-haven assets is pushing gold close to $5,000, while mixed economic data in the U.S. keeps the EUR/USD steady at around 1.1750. Additionally, Bitcoin dipped below $90,000 due to Trump’s tariffs causing price fluctuations and ETF outflows. Looking ahead, upcoming meetings by the Fed and BoC, along with ongoing geopolitical tensions, could impact market trends even more. Some financial institutions, like UBS Group, are starting to offer Bitcoin and Ethereum options to select private clients. The U.S. dollar has dropped to a five-week low, showing a clear trend that traders should take advantage of. Implied volatility is increasing ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting, and the VIX index remains stubbornly above 20. Traders might want to consider options strategies, like long straddles, that benefit from big price movements, especially in major pairs like EUR/USD and the dollar index.Canadian Retail Sales
Strong Canadian retail sales data from November 2025, showing a growth of 1.7%, highlights the economy’s resilience. This stands in stark contrast to the U.S., where cooling inflation data has raised expectations for a Fed rate cut. Given this policy difference, trading the Canadian dollar against the U.S. dollar looks promising, with potential use of futures or call options on CAD. The rise of gold toward $5,000 reflects both a flight to safety and aggressive selling of the U.S. dollar. We saw a similar trend in 2024 when fears of a global slowdown pushed gold up 15% in just one quarter. Traders should consider buying call options with strike prices above $5,000 to take advantage of this strong momentum. The Japanese Yen is also a key focus, especially as officials threaten intervention with each drop in the USD/JPY pair. A “rate check” often acts as a warning before market intervention, potentially causing a sudden drop in this currency pair. Purchasing inexpensive, out-of-the-money put options on USD/JPY is a limited-risk way to profit from such volatile situations. In the meantime, currencies like the British Pound and the Euro are reaching multi-month highs, benefiting from a weakened dollar. This situation is not solely technical; it is supported by fundamentals as Fed funds futures now indicate a greater than 70% chance of a rate cut by March. We can expect the trend of dollar selling to intensify as the Fed decision approaches. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.Retail sales in Canada increased by 1.3% month-on-month, surpassing the expected 1.2% growth.
Canada’s retail sales rose by 1.3% in November, exceeding the expected 1.2% increase. This growth shows a positive trend in the retail sector for that month.
Analysts predicted a smaller rise, but actual spending by consumers was stronger than anticipated. This could impact economic evaluations and future forecasts.
Retail Sales Show Economic Strength
The retail sales data from last November, with a 1.3% increase, indicates that consumer strength was underestimated as we approached the end of 2025. This sign of economic resilience, although dated, shapes our understanding of new data. It hints at a steady momentum still present in the economy. Supporting this view, the recent jobs report for December 2025 showed the Canadian economy added a surprising 45,000 jobs, keeping the unemployment rate stable at 5.8%. More importantly, wages grew by over 4.5% year-over-year. This combination of increased spending and a tight job market suggests ongoing inflationary pressures. As a result, the Bank of Canada is likely to avoid signaling any rate cuts at its meeting next week. We expect a cautious stance, meaning interest rates will probably remain high longer than the market anticipated a month ago. Therefore, we’re adjusting our positions in CORRA futures to reflect a lower chance of a rate cut before summer.Effect on Currency and Markets
These expectations should bolster the Canadian dollar. If the Bank of Canada maintains its stance while other central banks consider easing, it creates a favorable interest rate differential. We see potential in options that could profit from the USD/CAD exchange rate decreasing to around the 1.3300 mark in the coming month. For equity markets, this situation presents a mixed outlook. Strong consumer activity is beneficial for retail and financial stocks, but the possibility of sustained high interest rates may pressure the broader S&P/TSX 60 index. We are exploring strategies to hedge against broader market declines while still being exposed to consumer-focused sectors. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.Euro falls against the British Pound as stronger UK economic data emerges in trading
The Euro is losing value against the British Pound as strong UK economic data strengthens Sterling. The EUR/GBP is currently around 0.8677, having reached a high of 0.8745 earlier this week.
Strong UK Economy
Recent UK Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data shows healthy growth in business activity. The Composite PMI rose to 53.9 in January. The services sector hit a 21-month high with a PMI of 54.3, while manufacturing steadied at 51.6, the highest in 17 months. UK Retail Sales also exceeded expectations, increasing by 0.4% in December after a slight dip of 0.1% in November. Year-on-year, sales grew from 1.8% to 2.5%. When excluding fuel, December saw a 0.3% gain in sales, with the annual rate at 3.1%, both figures better than predicted. Megan Greene from the Bank of England warned against quick rate cuts, highlighting risks of slow disinflation and possible inflation pressures. This has led to changes in expectations regarding the Bank of England’s near-term monetary policies. In contrast, Eurozone PMI figures show mixed results. The Composite PMI remained stable at 51.5, with manufacturing slightly improving to 49.4 and services dropping to 51.9. The European Central Bank is expected to keep interest rates at 2.00% for the next year.UK Economic Advantage
About a year ago, in January 2025, strong UK business activity and retail sales data surprised many. These results indicated a more resilient UK economy than expected, which pushed back against predictions for early rate cuts from the Bank of England. This sentiment helped strengthen the Pound against the Euro significantly. This trend of the UK performing better continues, highlighting a divergence from the sluggish Eurozone economy. As of January 2026, UK inflation for December 2025 remains steady at 3.8%, compared to the Eurozone’s 2.7%. This ongoing difference keeps the Bank of England more cautious than the European Central Bank. Given this situation, we might consider preparing for further declines in the EUR/GBP pair, which is currently close to 0.8550. Options strategies, like buying put spreads, could manage risks while taking advantage of the ongoing policy divergence. Implied volatility is moderate, suggesting that options are not too expensive at the moment. In the coming weeks, the main factors to watch will be upcoming inflation reports and guidance from central bank officials. We believe the Bank of England will continue its cautious approach, especially with UK wage growth still strong at over 6.0%. Any signs of weakness in Eurozone preliminary GDP figures could speed up the downward movement of the EUR/GBP pair. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.Raytheon Technologies Corp’s stock shows promising momentum and a breakout due to recent geopolitical developments.
Raytheon Technologies Corp is a leader in the aerospace and defense sector, gaining strength from recent geopolitical events. Analyzing the stock using the Elliott Wave pattern shows a strong potential breakout.
According to the Elliott Wave analysis, RTX has been on the rise since its low in 2020. Wave I reached $106, Wave II hit $68, and we are currently in Wave III. A weekly analysis indicates that we will see three waves that could lead to new highs. The stock is expected to complete five-wave advances from both 2020 and 2023, aiming for $222.
In Wave ((3)), there’s potential for Wave III to go beyond $250. RTX is likely to undergo a series of third and fourth waves. The important level to watch is the April 2025 low of $112, which must hold to avoid corrections. Any pullbacks are buying opportunities, typically occurring in patterns of 3, 7, or 11 swings.
The bullish trend suggests further price increases are possible. Traders should look for entry points during daily pullbacks, using the Elliott Wave method for timing. The proprietary Blue Box system can help identify reversal zones, increasing clarity and confidence. This disciplined approach seeks to capture the next big move for RTX.
The aerospace and defense sector continues to grow, driven by recent geopolitical tensions and rising government spending. The FY2026 defense budget recently passed with a 7% increase in funding for advanced missile systems, which are crucial for RTX. This supportive environment backs the technical indicators we’ve been tracking.
Reflecting on our predictions from January 2026, the technical plan we laid out last year has been accurate. The critical level of $112, based on the April 2025 low, was never broken during minor market corrections in the latter half of 2025. This confirms the strength of the trend and prepares us for the next major upward move.
Traders in derivatives should use daily pullbacks to prepare for a move towards $222. Buying call options that expire in three to six months can amplify this expected gain. Strikes around $190 to $200 can offer a good balance between premium costs and potential gains.
For a more cautious strategy, consider bull call spreads. This involves buying a call at a lower strike price and selling one at a higher strike price, which lowers the initial cost. This tactic is effective for targeting a specific price move, like an initial jump into the $220s.
Another approach is to sell cash-secured puts during dips. This allows you to express a bullish view while earning income. Target strike prices close to established short-term support levels to collect premiums based on the expectation that the stock will remain above those levels. This method aligns well with our strategy of entering the market after a 3, 7, or 11-swing correction.
Implied volatility should influence the timing of these trades. When fear or pullbacks occur, volatility usually increases, making the premiums from selling puts more appealing. Meanwhile, entering long call positions is typically more affordable when volatility is low during consolidation.
Lastly, the stock’s impressive backlog of $204 billion, reported in Q4 2025 earnings, provides solid evidence for future revenue growth. This reinforces our belief that the current wave structure is well-supported by strong business fundamentals. Each dip offers an opportunity to get in on the ongoing bullish trend that began from the 2023 lows.
In November, Russia’s foreign trade dropped to $6.795 billion from $11.143 billion.
Russia’s foreign trade volume in November fell to $6.795 billion, down from $11.143 billion the previous month. This drop highlights shifts in global economic conditions and changes in Russia’s trade activities.
This decline may affect various sectors of the Russian economy, impacting both local and international markets. Geopolitical tensions could also disrupt trade patterns and economic stability.
Currency Trends and Market Dynamics
At the same time, currency movements have been notable, with the GBP/USD pair reaching 1.3600, its highest point in four months. Increased demand for stable assets has pushed gold prices close to $5,000, influenced by wider economic trends and a weaker US dollar. Silver has also surged, reaching over $100.00, marking a historic high in commodities. Meanwhile, major currency pairs like EUR/USD have settled around 1.1750, responding to varying signals from the US economy. The market remains active, with companies like Swiss bank UBS Group exploring cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin and Ethereum. As these trends continue, they will create new opportunities and challenges for currency and commodity traders. The notable decline in Russian foreign trade from last November is likely to persist. Early data for December 2025 and January 2026 indicates that energy and grain shipments are down by at least 30% compared to the previous year. This suggests ongoing pressure on the Russian economy and its currency.Market Instability and Investment Trends
Current instability is causing a shift away from the US dollar, which is contributing to gold’s rise towards the $5,000 mark. A similar trend occurred in 2022 when geopolitical tensions increased, prompting a flight to hard assets. With the US inflation report for December 2025 showing a steady 3.8% rate, the dollar is losing its appeal as a safe investment. In contrast, the British pound has performed well, reaching 1.3600 as UK economic indicators remain strong. Positive retail sales and PMI data late last year have maintained confidence, with the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) reflecting unexpected optimism this month. For traders, buying long GBP call options against the dollar or euro may be an attractive option in the coming month. Precious metals are experiencing significant growth, with silver now over $100 an ounce. Although the upward trend is strong, implied volatility on silver options has exceeded 45%, making direct long positions costly and risky. Consider bull call spreads to gain potential upside while limiting initial costs and risks. Overall, market volatility is on the rise due to uncertainties surrounding possible new US tariffs and the Federal Reserve’s next steps. The VIX, a measure of expected stock market volatility, has climbed from a low of 14 last quarter to over 21 this week. Purchasing VIX futures or out-of-the-money puts on equity indices may provide a valuable hedge against any sudden market downturn. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.GBP rises against major currencies, approaching 1.3536 against the USD due to positive data
The Pound Sterling is rising strongly against major currencies, reaching about 1.3536 against the US Dollar. This follows positive economic news from the UK, including a higher-than-expected S&P Global Purchasing Managers’ Index for January and increased Retail Sales in December.
The Pound has potential for further growth, but it’s unclear if it can break through the key level of 1.3570. The UK’s Composite PMI rose to 53.9 in January from 51.4 in December, surpassing the estimate of 51.7. This shows solid growth in both manufacturing and services.
Pound Sterling Momentum and Market Movements
The GBP/USD pair might climb to a four-month high close to 1.3600, fueled by stronger sales of the US Dollar. Notable market movements include gold nearing $5,000 due to demand for safe-haven assets and a weaker US Dollar, as well as Bitcoin’s value swinging with global events and trends. Legal disclaimers remind us that predictions carry risks and uncertainties. Market data is informational only and should not be seen as investment advice. It’s important to conduct thorough research before making any investment choices. FXStreet does not guarantee accuracy or timeliness of information, and investing carries substantial risk. The Pound shows strength against the Dollar due to unexpectedly strong UK retail sales and business activity data. We see the GBP/USD pair nearing 1.3536, but there is important resistance at 1.3570. The key issue in the coming weeks is whether this momentum can break through that level. For traders who think this rally may slow down, selling call options above 1.3570 might be smart. This strategy allows us to earn a premium, betting that the pair will stay below this resistance level. Strong economic data adds support, making a sharp drop less likely and favoring a stable range.Investment Strategies and Considerations
Looking back, UK inflation was stubbornly above the Bank of England’s target in the last quarter of 2025, sitting around 3.9%. While the central bank is likely to keep interest rates unchanged, this ongoing inflation may already be reflected in the currency’s value. This suggests that big gains could be hard to come by going forward. For those who believe the positive economic outlook will continue, a bull call spread can provide a low-risk way to bet on minor gains. By buying a call option just below the current price and selling another above 1.3600, we stand to gain from a rise. This approach minimizes our upfront costs and potential losses if the rally unexpectedly reverses. We should also be cautious about a possible reversal, as the Dollar has been weak for a while. The latest US jobs report from December 2025 showed over 200,000 new jobs, indicating strength in their economy. Buying put options could be a useful hedge against a sudden rebound in the Dollar if upcoming US inflation data surprises on the high side. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.EUR/USD holds above 1.1730 as it awaits US flash PMIs
**Impact of Strained EU-US Relations**
Recent Eurozone flash PMIs showed mixed results. Services are growing, while the Manufacturing PMI improved slightly but is still below 50, indicating contraction. In the US, economic data points to a steady interest rate outlook from the Federal Reserve. Q3 GDP was revised upward, and inflationary pressures were noted in November.
The EUR/USD exchange rate is fluctuating within key Fibonacci retracement levels, showing mild positive momentum. Technical indicators suggest a bullish trend, with resistance around 1.1765 and targets set beyond that point.
**Political Sentiment vs. Economic Fundamentals**
Despite solid economic data, the US dollar has weakened, suggesting that political sentiment is driving the market more than actual fundamentals. The strength of the EUR/USD pair stems from the ongoing tensions in transatlantic relations. This trend is expected to continue, so traders should be cautious about betting on a dollar rebound solely based on economic reports.
The geopolitical risk is increasing currency volatility, with the Cboe EuroCurrency Volatility Index (EVZ) reaching a 10-month high of 9.8 last week, compared to an average of 6.5 in late 2025. This high volatility indicates that options strategies aiming to benefit from significant price movements may be more effective than simple directional bets.
The differences in central bank policies also support the euro’s strength. While the Fed is maintaining its stance, European Central Bank officials hinted at a more aggressive approach to inflation in December 2025, which the market interpreted as hawkish. This contrasts with the Fed’s current cautious approach, making the euro more attractive.
We’ve seen similar patterns before, especially during the trade tariff disputes of 2024 when political news overshadowed economic data. During that time, the dollar remained weak even with stronger US growth compared to Europe. History suggests that until political issues with the EU are resolved, the dollar’s outlook is likely to be negative.
In the upcoming weeks, buying EUR/USD call options could be valuable for capitalizing on potential gains while managing risk. High volatility makes strategies like a bull call spread helpful for reducing upfront costs. If the euro breaks through the key 1.1765 resistance level, this could lead to a quick move towards 1.1800.
Today’s US PMI data release will be a significant test for the current market dynamics. If the data is stronger than expected, it might not boost the dollar if overall sentiment remains negative, reinforcing the dominant political theme. However, if the data is weak, it could greatly accelerate the EUR/USD rally by aligning with the current bearish sentiment on the dollar.
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January’s US S&P Global PMI data release at 14:45 GMT may affect EUR/USD dynamics
The US S&P Global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for January will be released at 14:45 GMT. Early estimates show that the US Composite PMI is expected to expand faster, with improvements in both manufacturing and services. In December, the Composite PMI was at 52.7. The new Flash Services PMI is projected to rise to 52.8 from 52.5, while the Manufacturing PMI is expected to increase to 52.1 from 51.8. A strong performance in the US private sector would support the US Dollar (USD), while weak results could hurt it.
The EUR/USD is currently trading around 1.1738, forming a Symmetrical Triangle on the daily chart, which suggests lower volatility. The price is nearing the upper boundary of the pattern, located around 1.1770. The 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is rising at 1.1689, providing support for upward movement. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 57, indicating momentum above the midline. If the price breaks above the January high of 1.1769, it could rise to 1.1800 and then 1.1900. If the price drops, the 20-day EMA will act as a key support level.
