Dear Client,

Please note that the dividends of the following products will be adjusted accordingly. Index dividends will be executed separately through a balance statement directly to your trading account, and the comment will be in the following format “Div & Product Name & Net Volume”.

Please refer to the table below for more details:

The above data is for reference only, please refer to the MT4/MT5 software for specific data.

If you’d like more information, please don’t hesitate to contact [email protected].

Dear Client,

Affected by international holidays, the trading hours of some VT Markets products will be adjusted. Please check the following link for the affected products:

Notification of Trading Adjustment in Holiday

Note: The dash sign (-) indicates normal trading hours.

Friendly Reminder:
The above data is for reference only, please refer to the MT4/MT5 software for specific data.

If you’d like more information, please don’t hesitate to contact [email protected].

Dear Client,

Please note that the dividends of the following products will be adjusted accordingly. Index dividends will be executed separately through a balance statement directly to your trading account, and the comment will be in the following format “Div & Product Name & Net Volume”.

Please refer to the table below for more details:

The above data is for reference only, please refer to the MT4/MT5 software for specific data.

If you’d like more information, please don’t hesitate to contact [email protected].

Dear Client,

New contracts will automatically be rolled over as follows:

Please note:
• The rollover will be automatic, and any existing open positions will remain open.
• Positions that are open on the expiration date will be adjusted via a rollover charge or credit to reflect the price difference between the expiring and new contracts.
• To avoid CFD rollovers, clients can choose to close any open CFD positions prior to the expiration date.
• Please ensure that all take-profit and stop-loss settings are adjusted before the rollover occurs.
• All internal transfers for accounts under the same name will be prohibited during the first and last 30 minutes of the trading hours on the rollover dates.

If you’d like more information, please don’t hesitate to contact [email protected].

Dear Client,

Please note that the dividends of the following products will be adjusted accordingly. Index dividends will be executed separately through a balance statement directly to your trading account, and the comment will be in the following format “Div & Product Name & Net Volume”.

Please refer to the table below for more details:

The above data is for reference only, please refer to the MT4/MT5 software for specific data.

If you’d like more information, please don’t hesitate to contact [email protected].

The S&P 500 hovered just under the 5930 level on Wednesday, trading sideways after bouncing back from a session low of 5855.05. Market participants remained cautious ahead of Nvidia’s eagerly awaited earnings release. A glance at the 15-minute chart reveals that price movements have narrowed into a tight band between 5922 and 5934, with momentum indicators such as the MACD suggesting a waning bullish impulse.

Following Tuesday’s rally, which saw Nvidia’s share price surge more than 4% on optimism surrounding AI-related revenue growth, market sentiment has turned more restrained. Traders are now looking for confirmation that Nvidia can meet the lofty expectations. According to LSEG estimates, the company is forecast to post a 66.2% increase in first-quarter revenue, reaching $43.28 billion.

In the broader macro landscape, US consumer confidence figures came in stronger than expected, lending support to the US dollar and putting a cap on equity valuations as bond yields steadied. The dollar index climbed a further 0.25%, building on Tuesday’s 0.6% advance, while the euro dipped to $1.1304. Yields on longer-dated US Treasuries paused after recent gains, offering temporary respite to equity investors wary of valuation pressure.

Technical Analysis

The SP500 rebounded sharply from the 5855.05 low on 27 May, surging over 80 points to test resistance near 5934.70 in early 28 May trading. The recovery was driven by strong bullish candles with price action lifting above all three moving averages (5, 10, 30), signalling short-term bullish momentum. However, the rally stalled near the prior peak, with the price now consolidating just below resistance.

The MACD shows waning bullish momentum, with histogram bars shrinking and the MACD line approaching a potential bearish crossover. If support at 5920 holds, a second leg higher is possible. Otherwise, a break below the 30-MA could expose the 5900–5890 region for a retest.

Measured Outlook

The next decisive move in the S&P 500 will likely be determined by Nvidia’s results. A strong earnings beat could ignite a rally toward the 5950–5970 region, whereas a disappointment might prompt a drop below the 5900 mark.

With bond market volatility easing and key economic data remaining resilient, the downside risk appears contained in the short term, but a clear catalyst is needed for further upside. For now, the mood remains one of cautious optimism.

Open a live trading account with VT Markets today and take advantage of market opportunities.

Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda highlighted that many tariff negotiations are still ongoing, which creates uncertainty in the market. He stressed the importance of closely monitoring data but did not discuss short-term interest rate changes. The USD/JPY pair fell 0.27%, trading at 143.93. The Bank of Japan, as the country’s central bank, is responsible for setting monetary policy and maintaining price stability, aiming for an inflation target of about 2%.

The BoJ’s Monetary Strategy

Since 2013, the BoJ has maintained an ultra-loose monetary policy to boost the economy. This included measures like Quantitative and Qualitative Easing and negative interest rates. However, in March 2024, the bank raised interest rates, marking a shift from this approach. These policies caused the Yen to weaken against other currencies. This trend worsened in 2022 and 2023 but began to reverse in 2024 as the BoJ adapted its policies to rising inflation rates and wages. Higher global energy prices and a declining Yen have led to increased inflation in Japan. The BoJ’s decision to adjust its policy was a response to inflation consistently surpassing the 2% target. Ueda’s recent statements, combined with currency market reactions, reveal that the Bank of Japan’s changes are not just symbolic. Although he did not provide clear guidance on short-term interest rates, his focus on economic data suggests slower, more thoughtful responses ahead. These changes will rely on both domestic price trends and ongoing international trade negotiations.

Market Response and Future Projections

The Japanese Yen has begun to slip against the US Dollar, decreasing by nearly 0.25%. While this isn’t a significant drop, combined with Ueda’s cautious remarks, it indicates that markets are recalibrating. After years of decline, the Yen showed signs of reassessing its value in response to the rate increase in March. This hike was more than just a technical adjustment; it marked a shift from over ten years of supportive measures like negative rates and heavy asset purchases. These policies kept the Yen weak against other global currencies, boosting export competitiveness but leading to higher import costs, especially for energy. With rising global oil and gas prices in late 2022, Japanese consumers felt the financial strain. Increased local wages added further pressure. As a result, inflation exceeded the BoJ’s 2% target, prompting action in March. Now that the BoJ is setting the stage for a more traditional monetary policy, we should view price changes in Japan as trend indicators rather than just anomalies. This policy shift isn’t the end but the beginning; future moves will depend heavily on consumer price trends, wage growth, and global conditions—particularly Japan’s energy dependencies. For those involved in rate-sensitive investments, especially derivatives, the focus should be on the implied trajectory rather than immediate changes. The pace may remain slow, but the overall direction is crucial. Policy changes will be driven by data, and persistent inflation suggests a movement away from previous norms in the longer term. Short-term changes in the USD/JPY will reflect expectations for future movements more than immediate economic data. Given the current situation, we can expect the narrative around interest rate differences, which weakened the Yen over the past three years, to diminish if Japan continues its normalization. As rate gaps close, currency pairs often react sharply. Investment strategies should account for this potential change without trying to predict exact timing. Short gamma exposure linked to JPY could see increased volatility soon as traders anticipate BoJ actions throughout the year. The key question will be whether the central bank maintains its cautious approach or accelerates changes due to domestic pressures. Until then, market premiums remain undervalued in light of the changes underway. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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The President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York highlighted the need to keep inflation expectations stable to avoid long-term inflation problems. He stressed the importance of reacting strongly when inflation goes off target to prevent lasting damage. Currently, the US Dollar Index is a bit lower, sitting at 99.50. The Federal Reserve affects the US Dollar through its monetary policy. By adjusting interest rates, it aims to achieve price stability and full employment.

The Federal Reserve Monetary Meetings

The Fed has eight monetary policy meetings each year to review the economy and make decisions. One tool they use in times of crisis is Quantitative Easing (QE), which increases credit flow by buying bonds, potentially weakening the US Dollar. On the other hand, Quantitative Tightening (QT) means stopping bond purchases, which usually helps strengthen the US Dollar. These strategies are crucial for keeping the economy stable and managing inflation expectations. The New York Fed President’s comments remind us of the central bank’s priorities and responses. If inflation expectations stray too far from the target, it can affect the labor market, spending, and investment. He believes that acting promptly when inflation veers off course is essential—it’s not just about predicting perfectly but about preventing entrenched price pressures. With the US Dollar Index around 99.50, there’s a sign of some weakness. Traders might notice this, especially since a weaker dollar can influence various economic strategies, especially those linked to currencies. This softening is likely due to minor adjustments in rate expectations or overall sentiment rather than sudden events.

Impact Of The Federal Reserve

Historically, the Federal Reserve impacts the dollar mainly through interest rates. An increase attracts capital, while a decrease often pushes it away. This pattern also holds when rates stabilize. Since there are only eight Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings each year, each one is important—every statement and projection is quickly analyzed and integrated into the market. It’s also important to consider quantitative tools beyond just rate changes. When credit is abundant, like during QE, the dollar typically weakens because there’s more liquidity. Past QE periods often led to a lower dollar, especially when other countries weren’t expanding their balance sheets at the same rate. Conversely, QT, where the Fed reduces its bond holdings, usually supports the dollar by tightening liquidity and potentially raising yields. The Fed does not operate independently. Current inflation pressures might not come from straightforward models or only domestic issues. Recent comments indicate that the Fed intends to be proactive, even amid uncertainty. There is little patience now for allowing inflation to run too hot for too long. As a result, we can expect sensitivity across interest rate products and foreign exchange futures as the market adjusts its predictions. Breakevens and yields will likely be the first to react. The front end will especially respond quickly if the Fed changes its outlook or if economic data surprises positively. In these situations, making directional trades on rate changes can be tricky unless timed closely with data releases or policy announcements. Instead, relative value strategies might work better. For example, monitoring euro-dollar or dollar-yen implied volatilities for discrepancies, or looking at spreads between Fed Funds futures and SOFR contracts. Small changes in short-term expectations can shift rapidly—in both directions. The focus on “anchoring” inflation expectations shows that policymakers won’t rush to loosen policy. Even if growth slows or there are tough labor reports, unless there’s clear evidence of inflation decreasing sustainably, calls for rate cuts might not be addressed. A practical approach in the coming weeks could be examining options positioning around ranges identified by historical volatility, especially for shorter terms. This could benefit traders who are hesitant to make bold moves in flat markets but still want to be involved in potential shifts. Macro data remains a key factor. While CPI reports, core PCE, and employment figures may not tell the whole story alone, when combined with recent Fed speeches, they become more influential. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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Crude Oil’s Effect on CAD

The USD/CAD is showing slight gains around 1.3805 in early Wednesday trading. This rise is partly due to a boost in the US Consumer Confidence Index for May, which increased to 98.0, lending strength to the US Dollar. Market attention is on the FOMC Minutes set to be released later today. Additionally, the Canadian Q1 GDP report is expected this Friday, with a decline forecasted to 1.7% YoY, down from 2.6%. In April, US Durable Goods Orders dropped by 6.3%, which was better than the predicted 7.9% decline. The President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis suggested keeping interest rates steady for a clearer view of inflation related to tariffs. Declining crude oil prices have impacted the CAD since Canada is the US’s largest oil supplier. A decrease in oil prices generally weakens the Canadian Dollar’s value. The Bank of Canada’s interest rates, oil prices, and the country’s economic health strongly influence the CAD. A stronger economy usually supports the CAD, which can lead to higher interest rates. Macroeconomic data such as GDP, PMIs, and job statistics affect the CAD’s trajectory. A robust economy tends to strengthen the Canadian Dollar, while weak data may lead to depreciation.

The US Economy and the Canadian Dollar

During early Wednesday trading, the USD/CAD pair is holding modest gains at around 1.3805, supported by unexpectedly strong US consumer confidence for May, which rose to 98.0. This boost seems to have invigorated the greenback as traders evaluate American households’ outlook. Later today, we will see the Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes, which could reveal their current stance on interest rates and economic risks. Although no major shifts are expected, any mention of longer-term inflation concerns could push rate expectations higher. We will scrutinize this closely. This Friday, we are expecting Canada’s GDP report for the first quarter. The forecast predicts a slowdown to 1.7% YoY from 2.6%. If the actual result is worse than expected, it may prompt investors to anticipate a higher chance of policy easing from Canada, which could weigh on the Canadian Dollar. Oil prices have also become a concern. The recent decline in crude prices has put pressure on Canada’s currency. Since Canada is a significant oil exporter—especially to the US—a continued drop in oil prices usually undermines the CAD against the USD. While the decrease may not be drastic, it is important not to overlook its effect on short-term currency movements. Last month, US durable goods orders decreased by 6.3%, which was less than the expected drop of 7.9%. This decline indicates some hesitation in capital investment, likely due to uncertainty about interest rates. Still, the better-than-expected result added some strength to the dollar. A comment from the Minneapolis Fed President suggested keeping interest rates steady for now, given the uncertainty surrounding how tariffs might affect prices. This approach highlights how closely policymakers are focused on core inflation drivers. As we assess the balance between declining Canadian growth signals and resilient US data, we also monitor where rate expectations are heading. Current mild growth in the US and less severe data provide a reason for dollar bulls to remain active. We should prepare for potential price reactions this week. The Canadian GDP report and any surprises from the Fed minutes could lead to adjustments in interest rate forecasts. Consequently, carry-sensitive strategies might react more than usual. It’s also crucial to keep an eye on PMI updates and job data to maintain a solid position this quarter. Until we see significant changes in inflation or job market conditions, central bank caution is likely to persist, which often favors range-bound trading. We are focusing on both growth trends and the correlation with oil trading. If GDP falls short and crude prices continue to decline, the CAD could face short-term pressure. Conversely, any unexpected dovish comments from the Fed could create opportunities for a short-covering rally for the loonie. During these short-term periods, liquidity may be low, making precise entries and exits even more important. Overall, the combination of weakening Canadian indicators and a sustained USD suggests that buying on dips may be a favored strategy for this currency pair in the coming days. However, any trades should be accompanied by clearly defined risks in case sentiment shifts abruptly due to policy or data surprises. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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Consumer Sentiment Rebounds

The Consumer Board’s May survey shows a significant boost, rising 12.3 points to reach 98.0. This is a recovery from a four-year low of 85.7. The positive trend in consumer confidence comes as fewer people expect a recession within the next year. The Dow Jones climbed nearly 750 points, breaking above the 200-day Exponential Moving Average to hit 42,250. While this is below its high of 42,800, market patterns indicate growing momentum. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a crucial US stock index that tracks the 30 most traded stocks. It is calculated based on stock prices, with influences from company earnings, economic data, and Federal Reserve interest rates.

Market Response to Tariff Delay

Dow Theory, created by Charles Dow, analyzes stock market trends by comparing the Dow Jones indices. You can trade the DJIA through various methods including ETFs, futures, options, and mutual funds. Recently, markets have reacted in a familiar way to political changes, especially regarding tariffs. After Trump postponed a 50% tariff on EU imports that was set to start in June, we saw a market rally. This delay is now in effect until at least July 9. Such news typically triggers quick reactions, and this is reflected in the Dow’s bounce. It’s important to focus not just on headlines, but on whether these delays become a trend. Historically, these postponements don’t always mean the end of tensions. Traders with leveraged long positions might be tempted to take risks based on temporary relief, but caution is advisable. Remember, temporary relief can turn back into tension quickly if new announcements come. The rise in stock prices isn’t solely tied to geopolitical events. The Consumer Confidence Index’s jump of 12.3 points to 98.0 is also significant. This rebound could lead to increased consumer spending, as lower recession fears suggest a positive shift in sentiment. When analyzing such data for trading, it’s crucial to use reliable methods. If we take the Dow crossing above its 200-day Exponential Moving Average seriously—which we should—momentum aligns with the improved confidence. However, this doesn’t mean all risk has vanished; it simply indicates a new baseline. Traders involved with DJIA-related derivatives should protect against near-term volatility, especially before the tariff deadline. The move towards 42,250 is promising, even if it’s still below the recent high of 42,800. However, this upward movement isn’t guaranteed. Price-weighted indices can show exaggerated gains based on a few strong performers, which may falter just as easily. Managing spreads, stops, and position size is crucial right now. For those trading DJIA through futures or options, implied volatility is a key factor. As significant economic reports and trade decisions approach—like the July 9 deadline—price changes can accelerate. Longer contracts, especially those dated for August, may start to factor in inflation expectations if inflation data keeps rising. Sudden market shifts can happen if traders are overly focused in one direction. We observed that broader options premiums increased slightly after the confidence report, indicating that volatility sellers are becoming cautious. This suggests market participants expect some fluctuations, though not extreme ones. It’s not about reacting in panic—it’s about being flexible in trading strategies. Now is not the time to guess where markets *should* go. Instead, focus on where they currently stand and consider what needs to happen for stability. Recent macro data, policy changes, and index trends all suggest a short-term direction, but short trends can change quickly. Those using Dow Theory should watch not just the industrials but also the transport index. If both indicate the same direction, it might be wise to consider longer-term trades. Otherwise, using short-term positions backed by volatility forecasting tools may be the safer choice. Remember, the methods we choose to trade this index—whether futures spreads, leveraged ETFs, or vertical options structures—should match the upcoming deadline in July. After that, tariff policy changes could alter the market again. It’s better to prepare for re-entry than to hold onto early profits too long. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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