Please note that the dividends of the following products will be adjusted accordingly. Index dividends will be executed separately through a balance statement directly to your trading account, and the comment will be in the following format “Div & Product Name & Net Volume”.
Please refer to the table below for more details:
The above data is for reference only, please refer to the MT4/MT5 software for specific data.
If you’d like more information, please don’t hesitate to contact [email protected].
Trump’s march to the Oval Office followed the drumbeats of ‘Make America Great Again’. But is Trump falling out of tune due to his relentless barrage on the Fed Chair, Jerome Powell and the institutional independence of the Federal Reserve?
In a series of Trump’s verbal threats to Powell, 23 April 2025 will go down in history books. It marked a sudden pivot from Trump’s crusade against Powell.
“I have no intention of firing him,” Trump told reporters in the Oval Office on Tuesday. “I would like to see more ideas from him to lower interest rates,” he added.
US stock futures, which are traded outside of regular market hours, surged following Trump’s comments, with contracts linked to the benchmark S&P 500 and tech-heavy Nasdaq-100 rising more than 1.70 percent and 1.90 percent, respectively.
To truly understand the weight of Trump’s latest pivot, it’s worth rewinding the clock. The friction between Trump and Jerome Powell didn’t begin in 2025.
It’s part of a deeper, years-long broadside that dates back to 2017, when Trump first nominated Powell as Fed Chair.
What started as a routine appointment quickly evolved into one of the most public and persistent battles over central bank independence in modern American history.
Here’s how that story has unfolded over time.
Timeline: Trump’s Criticisms Of Jerome Powell Over Interest Rates
19 July 2018: Trump publicly criticises the Federal Reserve for raising interest rates, stating he’s ‘not thrilled’ with Powell’s decision, breaking a long-standing tradition of presidential silence on Fed policy.
10 October 2018: Trump escalates his criticism, saying the Fed has ‘gone crazy’ with its interest rate hikes.
2019
23 August 2019: In a tweet, Trump compares Powell to Chinese President Xi Jinping, asking, “Who is our bigger enemy, Jay Powell or Chairman Xi?”
….My only question is, who is our bigger enemy, Jay Powell or Chairman Xi?
Throughout 2021–2022: Although out of office, Trump continues to criticise Powell, especially as inflation rises, claiming Powell has lost control of inflation.
2023–2024
Mid-2024: While campaigning for the 2024 election, Trump threatens to fire or demote Powell if re-elected, sparking debates over the Fed’s independence.
Trump Against Powell: A Power Play Worth Paying Attention To
As markets continue to react to every exchange between Trump and Powell, traders should keep a close eye on how this relationship unfolds.
While Trump’s recent softening in tone may offer temporary relief, history shows that his stance can shift swiftly and dramatically.
With interest rates, inflation, and market stability hanging in the balance, even a single comment from either figure can trigger significant volatility. Staying updated on this high-stakes power dynamic isn’t just about following politics.
It’s a strategic move for anyone navigating today’s markets.
Please note that the dividends of the following products will be adjusted accordingly. Index dividends will be executed separately through a balance statement directly to your trading account, and the comment will be in the following format “Div & Product Name & Net Volume”.
Please refer to the table below for more details:
The above data is for reference only, please refer to the MT4/MT5 software for specific data.
If you’d like more information, please don’t hesitate to contact [email protected].
Please note that the dividends of the following products will be adjusted accordingly. Index dividends will be executed separately through a balance statement directly to your trading account, and the comment will be in the following format “Div & Product Name & Net Volume”.
Please refer to the table below for more details:
The above data is for reference only, please refer to the MT4/MT5 software for specific data.
If you’d like more information, please don’t hesitate to contact [email protected].
Wall Street rarely shows signs of stress without cause. But right now, the pressure is building. Despite optimistic political rhetoric, cracks are forming in the U.S. economy. Volatility is rising, corporate profits are slipping, and overall growth shows signs of fatigue. While the data hasn’t officially confirmed a recession, it’s edging closer to doing so.
Take the S&P 500, for instance. Between mid and late March, the index climbed sharply from 5509 to 5790, reflecting an upbeat market mood. But sentiment shifted fast after President Donald Trump unveiled new tariffs dubbed ‘Liberation Day.’ The announcement caught traders off guard, sparking a swift selloff. Markets then bounced on news of a temporary pause, only to tumble again amid renewed uncertainty. Once the pause was confirmed, a massive rally followed, with the NASDAQ logging a single-day gain of 1,857.06 points. Such wild swings aren’t typically rooted in confidence. They reflect anxiety.
Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve remains cautious. With inflationary pressure tied to tariffs complicating the economic landscape, Chair Jerome Powell has kept interest rates steady. The Fed is walking a tightrope. Cut rates too soon, and inflation might reaccelerate. Leave them high, and growth risks stalling. Should inflation and economic weakness emerge simultaneously, stagflation could become a reality.
Consumer behaviour is also signalling distress. April saw the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index drop 11%, marking its fourth consecutive decline. The downturn is widespread, affecting all political affiliations, income levels, and education groups. Concerns about job security are growing, and with uncertainty on the rise, household spending is pulling back, further dampening growth prospects.
On the industrial front, the Empire State Manufacturing Survey paints a grim picture. Current conditions sit at -8.1%, and future expectations are even worse at -7.4%. These figures rank among the weakest in over two decades, worse than the early stages of the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. Only the aftermath of 9/11 saw lower expectations.
Corporate America is bracing for a slowdown. Earnings forecasts for S&P 500 firms have been revised downward by 48%, Bloomberg reports. That’s the steepest revision since April 2020, when the pandemic first disrupted global markets. This time, it’s policy uncertainty and shaky economic fundamentals driving the pessimism.
The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model currently predicts a -2.3% contraction in U.S. GDP for the first quarter of 2025. Some of that dip may be exaggerated due to a rush to repatriate gold ahead of new tariffs, but even after adjusting for anomalies, growth is decelerating. From a robust 3% annual rate over the past couple of years, current estimates have dropped to just 0.3%, according to a CNBC survey.
Bond markets are flashing familiar warning signals. The yield curve has steepened again after previously inverting, a classic recession indicator seen before every U.S. downturn since 1980. Typically, this pattern emerges when the Fed readies itself to ease policy as growth weakens.
For now, the job market remains stable. Unemployment holds at 4.2%, and weekly jobless claims haven’t moved significantly, providing some cushion. The Fed has flagged jobless claims as one of the best leading indicators of recession. If those numbers begin to rise, more pronounced economic declines may follow.
So, while the U.S. hasn’t officially entered a recession, warning lights are flashing across multiple sectors. Growth is slowing, optimism is fading, and risk factors are accumulating. Without a major policy shift or cooling of trade tensions, the threat of a prolonged downturn remains high. The road ahead will require caution from policymakers and investors alike.
Market Movements This Week
Despite a relatively quiet economic calendar, markets remained highly sensitive last week, reacting to geopolitical instability, looming U.S. recession risks, and cautious sentiment among consumers and businesses. Many key currency pairs and commodities are now testing major technical levels as traders await clear direction.
The U.S. Dollar Index (USDX) is beginning to soften after recent strength, with traders closely watching 98.10 and 97.95 for bullish interest should price drift lower. If the dollar regains upward momentum, any approach toward 102.40 will be scrutinized for signs of reversal or continuation. This week, the dollar’s path remains closely tied to risk sentiment and expectations around Federal Reserve policy.
In the EUR/USD pair, bullish setups may emerge if price retreats to 1.1210, while a move upward could encounter resistance near 1.1580. Market participants are eyeing Wednesday’s Flash PMI prints, which could inject short-term volatility depending on whether European data confirms weakening momentum.
GBP/USD has climbed into a zone of interest, with 1.3370 marking the key resistance to monitor. If the level fails to hold, price may briefly break above the 1.34336 swing high before facing renewed selling pressure. Sterling remains highly reactive to signals from the Bank of England, especially as rate cut speculation intensifies.
USD/JPY is showing weakness, drifting lower with a possible test of the 139.572 swing low on the horizon. However, analysts advise caution—further selling may be limited in the short term. Should the pair reverse, 146.60 stands out as a zone to gauge for potential rejection or momentum continuation.
For USD/CHF, price is currently hovering near recent swing lows, but traders are advised to avoid selling at this point. A bounce is anticipated, and if it plays out, 0.8410 will be the key level where bearish price action may re-emerge.
In the commodity currencies, AUD/USD looks poised to inch higher. Traders are watching 0.6415 for a reaction, with expectations of a pullback before any renewed bullish momentum. Meanwhile, NZD/USD fell from the previously watched 0.6000 zone, but the move lacked follow-through. Price is expected to revisit this level again—any fresh reaction there could reveal the next directional clue.
USD/CAD has registered a new swing low, though it hasn’t yet tested the 1.3760 demand zone. If it rebounds from current levels, 1.4140 becomes the critical resistance to watch for potential bearish setups. Oil price fluctuations will likely continue to influence the loonie’s performance throughout the week.
USOil (Crude) remains highly reactive to geopolitical risk. Should price dip, 61.00 is the key level for bullish setups. If crude rises from there, expect sellers to appear around 66.10. But if trade tensions between the U.S. and China escalate, analysts warn that crude could fall sharply, potentially testing 53.00.
Gold (XAU/USD) is back at its all-time high, drawing attention but also caution. Analysts warn against chasing the rally, especially with trade negotiations between the U.S. and China still in flux. If tensions ease, gold could retreat, but if uncertainty continues, a push toward 3430 remains on the table.
The S&P 500 (SPX) appears to be consolidating. A pullback to 5060 would be watched for bullish interest, while any move higher may meet resistance at 5610. Equities are currently walking a tightrope between weaker macro data and earnings season surprises.
Bitcoin (BTC) is showing signs of bullish momentum, but it needs to build more structure before direction becomes clear. Should price break through the 88,763.52 high, the next upside zone to monitor is 92,280. As always, crypto’s direction will depend heavily on liquidity and broader market appetite for risk.
Finally, Natural Gas (NATGAS) continues to trend lower. Bulls may step in if price tests 3.05, 2.95, or 2.80—zones that have previously offered support. However, any meaningful rally will likely hinge on upcoming weather patterns and storage reports.
This week’s market behavior underscores a common theme: uncertainty is tightening the zones, compressing volatility until the next breakout. Across FX, commodities, and crypto, traders are choosing caution—waiting for conviction before stepping back in. With PMI prints and central bank speeches on deck mid-week, the next move could come fast.
Key Events This Week
Market activity during Asian and European sessions may remain subdued unless unexpected headlines shake things up. Many traders will use the early part of the week to position ahead of Wednesday’s data-heavy schedule.
On Wednesday, April 23, a round of Flash PMI releases from the Eurozone, U.K., and U.S. will dominate attention. German Manufacturing PMI is expected to fall to 47.5 from 48.3, while Services PMI may decline slightly to 50.3. Weak results could push the euro lower.
The U.K. will also post its Flash PMIs, with Manufacturing expected at 44.0 (from 44.9) and Services at 51.4 (down from 52.5). GBP/USD could see large moves if the data misses expectations.
In the U.S., Manufacturing PMI is forecast at 49.3, down from 50.2, while Services PMI is expected at 52.9 (previously 54.4). These drops point to a broadening economic slowdown, keeping pressure on the dollar and U.S. yields.
The week wraps with SNB Chairman Schlegel’s remarks on Friday, April 25. With the Swiss central bank also weighing rate cuts, traders will watch for guidance that could affect USD/CHF and other CHF pairs.
To provide a better trading environment in accordance with the market conditions, VT Markets will adjust trading setting on April 21, 2025.
Please find the table below for more information:
1. Pending Stop Orders (Buy Stop / Sell Stop): The order price must not be set within the current spread range.
2. Stop Loss (S/L): The stop-loss price must not be set within the current spread range.
3. Pending Limit Orders (Buy Limit / Sell Limit) and Take Profit (T/P): The price is not restricted by the current spread range.
If you’d like more information, please don’t hesitate to contact [email protected].
Please note that the dividends of the following products will be adjusted accordingly. Index dividends will be executed separately through a balance statement directly to your trading account, and the comment will be in the following format “Div & Product Name & Net Volume”.
Please refer to the table below for more details:
The above data is for reference only, please refer to the MT4/MT5 software for specific data.
If you’d like more information, please don’t hesitate to contact [email protected].
Meet Jason. Jason had been trading forex for eight months. He was no expert, but he wasn’t a rookie either. Most days, he’d come out slightly ahead, until those days when things spiralled.
It always started the same way. Jason would have a solid morning, maybe catch 70 – 80 pips on a major currency pair.
But if the market turned and he lost more than 40% of those gains, something in him snapped. He couldn’t walk away. Trade after trade, he chased the market, trying to claw back what he’d lost.
By the time he hit a 60% drawdown, regret kicked in. But it was too late. Jason had fallen into the trap of overtrading again!
Sound familiar?
What Is Overtrading? (And Why Do Traders Do It?)
Overtrading happens when you take too many trades, too quickly, often driven by emotion rather than strategy. Common causes include:
1. Revenge Trading
Trying to recover losses immediately by taking impulsive trades. Taking a $30 loss from your trade is better than going gungho in the follow-up trade to compensate for the $30. You might end up with more losses (like Jason).
2. FOMO (Fear of Missing Out)
We get it. The regret of missing out when your trading peers are having a field day in the market.
Jumping into trades just because the market is moving, even if your strategy doesn’t support it. The M5 chart could have been bullish for the past 20 minutes, but it doesn’t mean the momentum will hold on when you enter the market.
Your strategy and insights should supersede whatever is happening on the chart.
3. No Trading Plan Or Discipline
You’re trading based on gut feelings instead of a clear system.
The result? Bigger losses, frustration, and blown accounts!
How The Brain Works In Overtrading Situations
Here’s the science behind what’s happening in your head when overtrading creeps in.
After a profitable trade, your brain gets a hit of dopamine, the feel-good chemical that drives motivation. Pair that with adrenaline from taking risks, and suddenly trading starts to feel rewarding in itself.
Over time, your brain starts to chase that high, nudging you to keep going with whispers of ‘just one more’.
On the flip side, losses trigger fear, frustration, and even anger. Your brain wants to fix the discomfort and pushes you to keep trading until you ‘feel better.’ But in that emotional loop, structure breaks down. You start ignoring rules and justifying impulsive decisions.
When emotions take the wheel, trading discipline goes out the window. That’s where things unravel.
4 Red Flags Of Overtrading
1. You’re Trading Just To ‘Be In The Market‘
If you’re placing trades just because you feel you should be trading (even when setups are weak), you’re likely overtrading.
2. Your Losses Are Growing Faster Than Usual
One bad trade leads to another, and suddenly, your daily loss limit is gone. Sound like Jason?
3. You’re Ignoring Your Trading Plan
Skipping analysis, changing stop-losses at the last minute, or abandoning risk management? That’s overtrading in action.
4. Multiple Trades At Once
How would you know if your trading practice runs on the mantra of quantity over quality?
It’s when you discover a high volume of trades in a day or session. A vicious cycle of wins and losses in a short timeframe can inadvertently cause overtrading without realising it.
Remember our discussion on the brain’s role in the subtle whispering of ‘just one more’? That’s what’s happening here.
5 Tips to Avoid Overtrading
Here’s how to take back control and keep your trading disciplined:
1. Stick To Solid Risk Management
Use a risk/reward ratio that makes sense (eg 1:2 or better). Keep your lot size appropriate for your account size. Never risk more than you’re willing to lose.
2. Record Your Moves In A Trading Journal. Then Follow It Religiously
Your trading journal is your anchor. Include your entry/exit rules, risk limits, and daily trade cap. Don’t deviate. Treat it like a business, not a game.
3. Limit Your Daily Trades
Set a max number of trades per day (eg 3 – 5). This forces you to be selective and avoids burnout. Quantity doesn’t equal quality.
4. Walk Away at Your Loss Limit
Removing yourself from the market after a loss streak is easier said than done. This is where discipline comes in to protect your equity from further loss.
If your losses hit your threshold, stop. Step away from the screen. There’s always another trading day. Protecting your capital is more important than ‘winning today.’
5. Don’t Take the Market Personally
The market isn’t out to get you. Sometimes setups fail. It’s not about you. It’s just price action. Keep your ego out of your trades.
Besides, imagine how chaotic the markets would be if they were hell bent on hunting down all the participants!
In Trading, Losing Is Normal. But Overtrading Is Not.
No one wins all the time. Losses are part of trading. It’s how you manage them that matters. Overtrading magnifies losses, clouds judgment, and destroys accounts.
If you feel yourself slipping, pause. Breathe. Review your trades and reset. The market will still be here tomorrow. Come back when your mindset is clear and your discipline is sharp.
Because in trading, staying in the game is the real win.
Please note that the dividends of the following products will be adjusted accordingly. Index dividends will be executed separately through a balance statement directly to your trading account, and the comment will be in the following format “Div & Product Name & Net Volume”.
Please refer to the table below for more details:
The above data is for reference only, please refer to the MT4/MT5 software for specific data.
If you’d like more information, please don’t hesitate to contact [email protected].
Thin Good Friday trading volumes curb price swings.
The US dollar traded in a narrow range on Friday, settling at 99.15 as holiday-thinned markets limited activity. Despite the modest rebound, the greenback remains near three-year lows amid persistent concerns over trade policies and central bank direction.
Trade Hopes Clash With Fed Tensions
President Trump unexpectedly suggested a possible easing of China tariffs, hinting at both pausing new duties and rolling back existing ones, a move that could bolster risk appetite in coming sessions.
However, his renewed attacks on Fed Chair Jerome Powell dampened optimism. Trump accused Powell of being “too slow” to cut rates and doubled down on calls for his replacement, contradicting the Fed’s data-dependent stance. Markets now anticipate 86bps of rate cuts in 2025.
While a drop in US jobless claims to a two-month low offered the dollar brief support, Trump’s conflicting signals on trade and monetary policy have left traders hesitant, preventing sustained recovery from multi-year lows.
Technical Perspective
The USDX 15-minute chart shows choppy consolidation after bouncing off 98.904 support. The index remains trapped between resistance at 99.50 and support above 98.90, reflecting indecision.
Picture: Dollar bulls struggle to regain ground above 99.20, as seen on the VT Markets app
Key observations:
MACD (12,26,9): Bullish momentum fades as histogram nears zero; bearish crossover suggests potential support retest.
Price Action: Failure to hold above the 30-period MA reinforces near-term weakness.
Levels to Watch
Upside Break: A clear move above 99.50 could signal bullish continuation.
Downside Risk: Breaching 98.90 may accelerate declines toward 98.50.
With catalysts lacking, range-bound trading may persist until fresh data or Fed commentary provides direction.
Insights 
VT 
