Stocks took a breather after a robust four-week surge as major indices, including the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite, dipped slightly. Cyber Monday witnessed rises in e-commerce stocks like Amazon and Shopify while “buy now, pay later” options surged, propelling Affirm’s stock. However, concerns over weakening consumer spending raised Fed rate hike impact worries. The currency market saw the US Dollar Index dip, reflecting vulnerability amidst declining Treasury yields. Economic indicators, including new home sales, shaped concerns, while currency movements, especially the EUR/USD climb, GBP/USD trajectory, and AUD/USD surge, drew attention. Gold and silver rallied, breaching significant resistance levels.

Stock Market Updates

Stocks took a breather on Monday following a robust four-week surge across major averages. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped by 0.16%, closing at 35,333.47, while the S&P 500 shed 0.20% to settle at 4,550.43, and the Nasdaq Composite edged down 0.07% to 14,241.02. The recent bullish trend stemmed from a retreat in the 10-year Treasury yield from briefly surpassing the 5% mark in late October. Despite concerns over weakening consumer spending from some retailers, the market maintained momentum, evidenced by a significant month-to-date increase in the S&P 500 by 8.5%, the Dow by 6.9%, and the Nasdaq by 10.8%.

Amidst the market fluctuation, Cyber Monday saw notable rises in certain e-commerce stocks, with Amazon and Shopify marking increases of 0.7% and 4.9%, respectively. The surge in interest in “buy now, pay later” options on Cyber Monday saw Affirm’s stock soar by nearly 12%. However, weaker spending data is seen as a potential indication that the Federal Reserve’s rate hikes might be impacting the broader economy, raising questions about consumer confidence. Looking ahead, key reports like the consumer confidence report and the personal consumption expenditures price index are expected to provide further insights into the market’s trajectory. Additionally, recent data from the Commerce Department revealed a slower-than-expected pace of new home sales in October, although there was an improvement from the previous year.

Data by Bloomberg

On Monday, the market saw a general decline with the overall sectors showing a negative trend of -0.20%. Real Estate and Consumer Discretionary sectors were the only ones to experience positive growth, gaining +0.38% and +0.19% respectively. Utilities and Information Technology followed with marginal increases of +0.09% and +0.04%. However, the majority of sectors faced losses, notably in Health Care (-0.64%), Industrials (-0.58%), Communication Services (-0.47%), and Energy (-0.40%). Financials and Consumer Staples also experienced declines at -0.28% and -0.24% respectively, while Materials showed a minor dip of -0.09%. Overall, it was a day marked by widespread negative performance across sectors, despite some minor gains in select areas.

Currency Market Updates

In the recent currency market updates, the US Dollar Index experienced a 0.20% dip, marking its lowest daily closure since late August, settling near 103.20. This downward trend persists, indicating the Greenback’s vulnerability, accentuated by declining Treasury yields—specifically, the 2-year fell to 4.89% and the 10-year decreased from 4.50% to 4.38%. The US New Home Sales declined unexpectedly by 5.6%, hitting 679K, below the anticipated 725K mark. This week’s US data focuses on housing metrics, consumer confidence, and manufacturing indices, culminating in the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure Index. Federal Reserve officials are slated to speak, with a blackout period commencing shortly.

Amidst this, the EUR/USD climbed to a three-month high, maintaining the potential for further growth while above 1.0950, eyeing a probable test of 1.1000. Attention in Europe hones in on upcoming inflation figures and the German GfK survey. Meanwhile, GBP/USD continued its upward trajectory, surpassing 1.2600, steering towards establishing a fresh equilibrium level. However, USD/JPY witnessed a decline, descending to around 148.50, impacted by diminished yields after a period of subdued trading.

Elsewhere, AUD/USD surged above 0.6600, marking its peak since early August and surpassing the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). The Reserve Bank of Australia’s Governor Bullock is scheduled for a discussion on economic aspects, coinciding with the release of October Retail Sales data. USD/CAD stayed below the 55-day SMA, potentially aiming for the 1.3600 zone, with a downside bias ahead of the impending employment data.

Complementing these currency movements, gold and silver rallied significantly, breaching significant resistance levels—gold surged past $2,010, while silver recorded its highest daily closure above $24.50 in weeks.

Picks of the Day Analysis

EUR/USD (4 Hours)

EUR/USD Climbs to Three-Month High Amid Dollar Strain and ECB Caution

The EUR/USD marked a significant upswing, reaching its highest point in three months, propelled by a weakening US Dollar and a persistent bullish trend. With the Greenback facing continued pressure due to subdued Treasury yields, ECB President Christine Lagarde’s warnings about potential inflation upticks and tepid growth added to the Dollar’s woes. Despite disappointing US New Home Sales data and impending housing figures, the Dollar’s strain persisted, allowing the EUR/USD to soar. Nevertheless, market attention is poised to shift toward contrasting growth trajectories between the US and the Eurozone, posing a potential impact on the current bullish momentum.

Chart EUR/USD by TradingView

On Monday, the EUR/USD moved slightly higher, attempting to reach the upper band of the Bollinger Bands. Currently, the price is hovering just below the upper band, showing potential for consolidation and a possible move toward the middle band. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains at 63, indicating a neutral position for the currency pair.

Resistance: 1.0965, 1.1004

Support: 1.0925, 1.0885

XAU/USD (4 Hours)

XAU/USD Soars to $2,016 Amid Dollar Weakness: Fed Speculation and Market Mood Swings Drive Precious Metal’s Rally

Gold, represented by XAU/USD, surged to $2,016.38 an ounce propelled by broad US Dollar weakness in the initial half of the day, only to taper to $2,010 as Wall Street’s opening prompted a mild dollar rebound. The Greenback’s recovery stemmed from market sentiment shifts and waning near-term seller interest, fueled by speculation that the Federal Reserve has concluded its tightening cycle. Despite intraday stock market declines, the Dollar struggles to sustain a lasting recovery. In the absence of major economic events, the focus shifts to forthcoming inflation updates from Germany, the Eurozone, and the US, particularly the Fed’s favored inflation gauge, the October Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) – Price Index, anticipated next Thursday.

Chart XAU/USD by TradingView

On Monday, the XAU/USD moved slightly higher and managed to reach the upper band of the Bollinger Bands. Currently, the price is just below the upper band, indicating potential consolidation and a possible move downward toward the middle band. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains at 69, reflecting a neutral position for the pair.

Resistance: $2,021, $2,038

Support: $2,007, $1,988

Economic Data

Dear Client,

Please note that the dividends of the following products will be adjusted accordingly. Index dividends will be executed separately through a balance statement directly to your trading account, and the comment will be in the following format “Div & Product Name & Net Volume ”.

Please refer to the table below for more details:

The above data is for reference only, please refer to the MT4/MT5 software for specific data.

If you’d like more information, please don’t hesitate to contact [email protected].

Several key factors are expected to impact the financial markets this week, including the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s Rate Statement and the US Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index. Given the potential for significant market movements, we advise traders to exercise caution when undertaking any trading activity.

Australia’s Consumer Price Index (29 November 2023)

The monthly CPI in Australia increased by 5.6% in the 12 months leading up to September 2023, reaching its highest level in five months.

Analysts forecast a growth rate of 5.2% in the figures for October 2023, which are due to be released on 29 November.

Reserve Bank of New Zealand Rate Statement (29 November 2023)

During its October meeting, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) held its official cash rate (OCR) steady at 5.5%, marking the third consecutive meeting without a change in the rate.

Analysts anticipate that the RBNZ will maintain its OCR at 5.5% following its upcoming meeting on 29 November.

Canada’s Gross Domestic Product (30 November 2023)

The Canadian economy experienced no change in August 2023, a downward revision from preliminary estimates of a 0.1% growth rate.

The September data for Canada’s GDP is set to be released on 30 November and is expected to reflect no change from August’s figures.

US Core PCE Price Index (30 November 2023)

The US core PCE prices, which exclude food and energy, rose by 0.3% in September 2023, the highest increase in four months.

The next set of data will be released on 30 November, with analysts expecting a growth of 0.2%.

Canada’s Employment Change (1 December 2023)

The Canadian economy added 17,500 jobs in October 2023, marking the third consecutive month of workforce expansion. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate increased to 5.7% in the same period, up from 5.5% in the previous month, reaching its highest level since January 2022.

The figures for November 2023 are scheduled to be released on 1 December, with analysts expecting the creation of 14,000 additional jobs and a rise in the unemployment rate to 5.8%.

Dear Client,

Please note that the dividends of the following products will be adjusted accordingly. Index dividends will be executed separately through a balance statement directly to your trading account, and the comment will be in the following format “Div & Product Name & Net Volume ”.

Please refer to the table below for more details:

The above data is for reference only, please refer to the MT4/MT5 software for specific data.

If you’d like more information, please don’t hesitate to contact [email protected].

European stocks showed a cautious upward trend as the US markets remained closed, with the Stoxx 600 index edging up by 0.3%. Despite oil price falls from the postponed OPEC meeting, oil and gas stocks surged while travel stocks faced a decline. Eurozone’s PMI data revealed worrying employment drops, yet signs of a slowing decline in business activity emerged. Meanwhile, attention shifted to the Dutch election’s potential impact. In the US, the Thanksgiving holiday bolstered positive sentiment despite a modest dollar decline. Wall Street futures mirrored gains in European markets, while attention shifted to S&P Global PMI projections amid a lack of major US releases. Currencies like the Euro and Pound remained steady against the dollar, driven by encouraging PMI data, while others, including the Aussie and Kiwi Dollars, saw mixed movements influenced by domestic indicators and market sentiments.

Stock Market Updates

With the US markets closed, European stocks closed slightly higher on Thursday. The pan-European Stoxx 600 index edged up by 0.3%, showcasing a cautious upward trend amidst investor uncertainty. Despite the ongoing fall in oil prices stemming from OPEC’s postponed meeting, oil and gas stocks surged by 1.4%, countering the downward pressure. However, travel stocks faced a contrasting fate, experiencing a 1% decline. The preliminary purchasing managers’ index data for November in the eurozone painted a worrisome picture, revealing a significant drop in employment for the first time in nearly three years. Even as business activity continued to contract, there were glimmers of hope as the rate of decline in both output and new business showed signs of slowing down. Meanwhile, attention turned to the Dutch election results, particularly an exit poll suggesting the potential for a substantial victory by right-wing populist Geert Wilders and his Freedom Party, the PVV.

In the U.S., stocks saw an increase on Wednesday, buoyed by the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield’s temporary dip to a two-month low. The broadening of the November market rally extended into the Thanksgiving holiday, fostering positive momentum in the market.

Data by Bloomberg

Stock markets were closed on Thursday, here it is the latest updates from Wednesday, across various sectors, the market generally saw positive gains, with the Communication Services sector leading the way with a rise of 0.88%. Following closely were Consumer Staples at 0.71% and Health Care at 0.54%. Sectors such as Financials, Real Estate, and Consumer Discretionary also experienced moderate gains, ranging from 0.37% to 0.50%. However, some sectors did not fare as well, with Energy being the only sector to experience a decrease, falling by 0.11%. Sectors like Information Technology, Industrials, and Materials saw gains ranging from 0.12% to 0.28%, contributing to the overall positive trend in the market for the day.

Currency Market Updates

In a truncated trading session due to the Thanksgiving holiday, the US Dollar experienced a modest decline, settling around 103.75 in the US Dollar Index (DXY), lingering below the 104.00 mark. Despite the closure of US markets, positive sentiment prevailed in Wall Street futures following gains in European markets. With no major US data scheduled for release on Friday and a shortened Wall Street session, attention turned to the S&P Global PMI projection, indicating a slight anticipated downturn in both the Services and Manufacturing sectors.

Meanwhile, the performance of other currencies against the dollar varied. The Euro maintained a relatively stable position around 1.0900 against the dollar, buoyed by encouraging Eurozone PMI figures and an uneventful account of the European Central Bank’s latest meeting. The Pound exhibited strength, reaching a two-month high against the dollar at 1.2530, driven by positive UK PMI data. Other currencies like the Japanese Yen, New Zealand Dollar, Canadian Dollar, and Australian Dollar displayed mixed movements against the US Dollar, influenced by domestic economic indicators and market sentiment. Despite subdued price action, the Australian Dollar managed to rise against the dollar, hovering around 0.6550, while the New Zealand Dollar awaited Q3 Retail Sales data and the Canadian Dollar looked toward the release of September Retail Sales figures.

Picks of the Day Analysis

EUR/USD (4 Hours)

EUR/USD Inches Up Amidst Low Volume Consolidation: Eurozone Data Insights and ECB Outlook

The EUR/USD saw a modest rise amidst low trading volume, hovering around 1.0900 while the US Dollar Index weakened slightly, fostering support for the pair amid subdued market activity. Eurozone PMI figures showed improvements in both the Manufacturing and Services sectors, yet remaining below the growth threshold. The data initially boosted the Euro but lacked sustained momentum due to minimal trading. The upcoming German GDP report and ZEW survey are anticipated to impact market sentiment. ECB’s recent meeting minutes revealed a consensus on maintaining policy rates and addressing heightened economic uncertainty. Despite ECB President Lagarde and council members slated to speak, clear insights into monetary policy adjustments aren’t expected, especially amid the US market’s closure for Thanksgiving, likely leading to thin trading conditions.

Chart EUR/USD by TradingView

On Thursday, the EUR/USD moved flat as the US market holiday. Currently, the price is moving just below the middle band of the Bollinger Bands with a potential of moving in consolidation as the US market will also close earlier today. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stays at 54 which reflects a neutral position for the currency pair.

Resistance: 1.0956, 1.1004

Support: 1.0885, 1.0832

XAU/USD (4 Hours)

XAU/USD Struggles to Hold $2,000 Amidst Quiet Trading Session

Gold Spot experienced a fluctuating journey, initially surging towards $2,000 in the Asian session, propelled by a weaker US Dollar, only to retract gains and settle around $1,990 during American hours amid limited trading activity with US markets closed. Despite benefiting from increased risk appetite and a weakening dollar, bolstered by favorable Eurozone PMIs, the precious metal fell short of reclaiming the $2,000 mark. With expectations of continued thin trading and a shortened US market session on Friday, Gold faces a landscape favoring consolidation, although the bullish bias persists for XAU/USD.

Chart XAU/USD by TradingView

On Thursday, the XAU/USD moved flat as the US market holiday. Currently, the price is moving just below the middle band of the Bollinger Bands with a potential of moving in consolidation as the US market will also close earlier today. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stays at 55 which reflects a neutral position for the pair.

Resistance: $1,996, $2,008

Support: $1,988, $1,973

Economic Data

Dear Client,

As part of our commitment to provide the most reliable service to our clients, there will be server maintenance this weekend.

Maintenance Hours :
25th of November 2023 (Saturday) 00:00-23:59 (GMT+2)
26th of November 2023 (Sunday) 00:00-23:59 (GMT+2)

Please note that the following aspects might be affected during the maintenance:

1. The price quote and trading management will be temporarily disabled during the maintenance. You will not be able to open new positions, close open positions, or make any adjustments to the trades.

2. There might be a gap between the original price and the price after maintenance. The gaps between Pending Orders, Stop Loss and Take Profit will be filled at the market price once the maintenance is completed. If you don’t want to hold any open positions during the maintenance, it is suggested to close the position in advance.

3. Please refer to MT4/MT5 for the latest update on the completion and market opening time. Our services will be back online once the maintenance is completed.

Thank you for your patience and understanding about this important initiative.

If you’d like more information, please don’t hesitate to contact [email protected]

Dear Client,

Please note that the dividends of the following products will be adjusted accordingly. Index dividends will be executed separately through a balance statement directly to your trading account, and the comment will be in the following format “Div & Product Name & Net Volume ”.

Please refer to the table below for more details:

The above data is for reference only, please refer to the MT4/MT5 software for specific data.

If you’d like more information, please don’t hesitate to contact [email protected].

The stock market witnessed a surge in major indices, with the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq all marking notable gains, signaling a widening positive trend across the market. However, the energy sector faced a slight decline due to OPEC’s postponed meeting on production cuts. Treasury yields experienced a significant drop, reaching a low not seen since September, influenced by the Federal Reserve’s persistent stance on monetary policy. Despite slight fluctuations and concerns over export restrictions on China impacting Nvidia’s shares, the market remains on track for monthly gains. Meanwhile, in currency markets, the US dollar strengthened against various currencies like the euro, yen, and pound, driven by positive US economic data and global market dynamics. The focus now shifts to upcoming flash PMI releases, which are anticipated to shape currency trajectories and impact key support levels.

Stock Market Updates

The stock market saw a rise in indices as the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 184.74 points to reach 35,273.03, marking a 0.53% increase. Similarly, the S&P 500 climbed 0.41% to 4,556.62, and the Nasdaq Composite advanced by 0.46% to 14,265.86. This broadening market rally was reflected in over half of the stocks on the NYSE showing gains, suggesting a widening scope for the positive trend. Notably, smaller cap stocks outperformed with a 0.7% and 0.6% rise for small and mid-cap stocks, respectively. However, the energy sector faced a 0.1% decline due to OPEC’s postponed meeting on production cuts, impacting companies like Marathon Oil, EOG Resources, and Devon Energy.

The Treasury yield for the 10-year briefly dropped to 4.369%, hitting its lowest since September, a significant decrease from October’s milestone of crossing the 5% mark for the first time in 16 years. The Federal Reserve’s notes from its recent meeting suggested a persistent stance on restrictive monetary policy, with no hint of imminent interest rate cuts. Despite this, investor optimism prevailed regarding the December meeting. Nvidia’s quarterly report revealed better-than-expected earnings and revenue but cautioned about the impact of export restrictions on China, leading to a 2.5% drop in its shares. Despite Tuesday’s slight decline, the major indices remain on track for monthly gains, with the Nasdaq rallying 11% in November, the Dow up nearly 7%, and the S&P 500 rising over 8%. The market sentiment leans towards the possibility of continued rally, especially with inflation trends and the likelihood of a “soft landing” from the Fed, as noted by Charlie Ripley, a senior investment strategist at Allianz Investment Management. The New York Stock Exchange closed for Thanksgiving and will have an early closure on Friday.

Data by Bloomberg

On Wednesday, across various sectors, the market generally saw positive gains, with the Communication Services sector leading the way with a rise of 0.88%. Following closely were Consumer Staples at 0.71% and Health Care at 0.54%. Sectors such as Financials, Real Estate, and Consumer Discretionary also experienced moderate gains, ranging from 0.37% to 0.50%. However, some sectors did not fare as well, with Energy being the only sector to experience a decrease, falling by 0.11%. Sectors like Information Technology, Industrials, and Materials saw gains ranging from 0.12% to 0.28%, contributing to the overall positive trend in the market for the day.

Currency Market Updates

The recent updates in the currency markets have seen the US dollar gaining strength, primarily driven by positive data on U.S. jobless claims and Michigan sentiment, reinforcing the Federal Reserve’s stance against premature rate cuts. Treasury yields experienced an upsurge following a notable drop in initial claims during the job report survey week and a concurrent decrease in continued claims, supporting the dollar’s ascent. Despite below-forecast October durable goods orders, the upward revision in Michigan sentiment and a rise in 1-year inflation expectations propelled Treasury yields further, benefiting the dollar. Notably, EUR/USD faced a 0.3% decline, largely influenced by the widening gap between 2-year Treasury yields and bund yields.

Meanwhile, USD/JPY exhibited a rebound, erasing a significant portion of its previous dive, driven partly by Japan’s economic view being reduced for the first time in 10 months, following an unexpected drop in Q3 GDP. Sterling experienced a 0.4% decline amid the dollar’s broader resurgence and the announcement of fiscal stimulus plans by British Finance Minister Jeremy Hunt. The pound found support at the 1.2450 200-DMA, with the retreat in risk-sensitive cable partially offset by the rise in U.S. equities. Other currencies like the Aussie faced a 0.24% fall, encountering resistance at the 200-DMA amidst a backdrop of weakened Chinese markets and commodities.

The upcoming focus in the market lies on the November flash PMI releases, which are expected to serve as crucial indicators for major economies, potentially impacting the trajectory of currencies like EUR/USD and influencing key support levels, such as the 100-day moving average around 1.08. Additionally, USD/JPY’s movement is closely tied to the convergence of various DMAs in a specific range, indicative of potential future trends. These developments reflect a dynamic landscape in the currency market, shaped by economic data releases and geopolitical events impacting different currencies differently.

Picks of the Day Analysis

EUR/USD (4 Hours)

EUR/USD Corrects Amidst US Dollar Strength: Market Anticipation on Eurozone Rates and US Data

The EUR/USD retreated to 1.0850 as the US Dollar surged post-release of robust US economic data, marking a correction from recent highs. Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel’s remarks on Eurozone interest rates nearing their peak spurred speculation, hinting at limited rate hikes without an inflation rebound. Thursday’s focus lies on preliminary November PMI data, expected to show slight improvements below the pivotal 50 mark, potentially amplifying pressure on EUR/USD if outcomes disappoint. Concurrently, the US Dollar strengthened on mixed data, including a larger-than-expected drop in Jobless Claims and a sizable contraction in Durable Goods Orders. With US markets closed Thursday, attention shifts to the ECB’s monetary policy meeting minutes, while Treasury yields bolster the Dollar’s corrective momentum amid anticipations for market consolidation.

Chart EURUSD by TradingView

On Wednesday, the EUR/USD demonstrated a robust downward trend, hitting the lower band of the Bollinger Bands. Presently, it trades marginally above this point, suggesting a potential upward shift aiming for the middle band. With the Relative Strength Index (RSI) resting at 50, it reflects a neutral position for the currency pair.

Resistance: 1.0956, 1.1004

Support: 1.0885, 1.0832

XAU/USD (4 Hours)

XAU/USD Retreats Amid US Dollar Rebound and Economic Data Surge

In response to a surge earlier in the week, Spot Gold (XAU/USD) experienced a pullback as it approached the critical resistance level of $2,010. The decline continued through the American session, signaling potential further downside, albeit at a gradual pace. Despite this retreat, the yellow metal retains an underlying bullish outlook. Concurrently, the US Dollar Index (DXY) rebounded from monthly lows, spurred by robust US economic data, reaching 104.20 before retracing slightly below 104.00. The climb was supported by an uptick in US Yields following a bounce from 4.37% to 4.40%. Notably, recent US data showcased a drop in Initial and Continuing Claims alongside a larger-than-expected contraction in October Durable Goods Orders. With the US market set to be closed on Thursday, a decline in trading volume is anticipated in the upcoming sessions.

Chart XAUUSD by TradingView

On Wednesday, XAU/USD experienced a downward movement, reaching the middle band of the Bollinger Bands. Presently, the gold price hovers slightly above this level, indicating a potential minor uptick aiming for the upper band. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 55, indicating a period of consolidation for the XAU/USD pair.

Resistance: $1,996, $2,008

Support: $1,988, $1,973

Economic Data

Dear Client,

Please note that the dividends of the following products will be adjusted accordingly. Index dividends will be executed separately through a balance statement directly to your trading account, and the comment will be in the following format “Div & Product Name & Net Volume ”.

Please refer to the table below for more details:

The above data is for reference only, please refer to the MT4/MT5 software for specific data.

If you’d like more information, please don’t hesitate to contact [email protected].