U.S. stock futures showed little change on Tuesday night as Wall Street prepared to resume trading after the Fourth of July holiday. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures declined by 0.1%, while S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures dipped by less than 0.1%.

The market had closed early on Monday, with slight gains in the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite. The positive session followed a strong first half of the year, particularly for the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500, which experienced their best starts since 1983 and 2019, respectively.

Market participants remain optimistic about a potential rally in the second half of the year, despite the possibility of a pullback later on.

Investors are keeping an eye on upcoming economic indicators, such as May factory orders data, which is expected to show a rise of 0.6% compared to the previous month. Additionally, the release of June’s Federal Reserve meeting minutes at 2 p.m.

ET will provide insight into the future of interest rate hikes. New York Fed President John Williams is scheduled to speak later in the day at the 2023 Annual Meeting of the Central Bank Research Association (CEBRA) in New York City.

Overall, with the holiday period ending, traders are cautiously anticipating the market’s direction, while remaining hopeful for a potential rally in the second half of the year.

Data by Bloomberg

The stock market is closed on Tuesday due to Independence Day in the US.

On Monday, the overall market showed a slight increase of 0.12%. Among the different sectors, Consumer Discretionary experienced the highest growth with a positive change of 1.07%, followed by Real Estate at 0.85% and Consumer Staples at 0.69%.

Utilities and Financials also saw positive gains with increases of 0.67% and 0.54% respectively. Energy and Materials both had modest growth of 0.31%. Communication Services had a minimal increase of 0.13%, while Industrials only saw a slight rise of 0.07%. On the other hand, Information Technology suffered a decline of -0.31%, and Health Care experienced the largest decrease with a negative change of -0.82%.

Major Pair Movement

The GBP/USD pair displayed resilience by closing up 0.2% despite the strengthening of the US dollar, while the EUR/GBP pair experienced a decline of 0.5%. This strength in the British pound can be attributed to varying expectations regarding interest rate hikes, which are providing a solid foundation of support.

Despite the challenges posed by the stronger US dollar, the pound managed to hold its ground and maintain a positive trajectory.

The AUD/USD pair commenced trading with a 0.31% increase, following a relatively calm session influenced by holiday factors. The Australian dollar (AUD) managed to gain against all major currencies except for the New Zealand dollar (NZD).

Market participants brushed off the Reserve Bank of Australia’s decision to pause, as an underlying hawkish bias remained intact. The positive sentiment surrounding the AUD/USD pair reflected the market’s indifference towards the central bank’s cautious approach.

The EUR/USD pair began trading with a decline of 0.35% after a quiet session influenced by holiday-related factors. The selling pressure on the euro (EUR) against the Japanese yen (JPY) contributed to this lower opening.

The EUR/USD pair faced challenges due to the light selling of EUR/JPY, which weighed on its performance. The impact of the holiday season was felt in the market, resulting in subdued trading activity and influencing the euro’s initial weakness against the US dollar (USD).

Picks of the Day Analysis

EUR/USD (4 Hours)

EUR/USD Modestly Falls on Quiet Day, Focus Shifts to FOMC Minutes and US Labor Market Data

The EUR/USD experienced a slight decline on a quiet day in the financial markets, with limited price action due to a US holiday. The Euro lagged behind the pound without any significant economic reports. Volatility is expected to increase on Wednesday with the release of Eurozone economic data and the FOMC minutes.

Market participants remained cautious on US Independence Day, but trading activity is expected to return to normal. The focus is now on the FOMC minutes and upcoming US labour market data, which will influence expectations regarding the actions of the Federal Reserve.

In the Eurozone, the May Producer Price Index (PPI) is anticipated to show a decline, providing some positive news for the European Central Bank (ECB).

Additionally, the final reading of the Markit Services PMI is due, with no major revisions expected.

Chart EURUSD by TradingView

According to technical analysis, the EUR/USD pair remained unchanged on Tuesday and reached the middle band of the Bollinger Bands. Currently, the price is slightly below the middle band, indicating a possible downward movement towards the lower band.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 43, suggesting that the EUR/USD is in a neutral position but slightly bearish.

Resistance: 1.0926, 1.0965

Support: 1.0842, 1.0790

XAU/USD (4 Hours)

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Spot Gold (XAU/USD) Holds Near Weekly High as Financial Markets Remain Quiet on Independence Day

Spot Gold maintained its position near the weekly high reached on Monday at $1,930.98, extending its gains for the fourth consecutive day. With the United States observing Independence Day and no significant news developments, financial assets remained stagnant, trading within familiar levels.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) announced no change to the Official Cash Rate (OCR) at 4.1%, noting that inflation in the economy has peaked. Initially, the decline in the Australian dollar provided support to the US Dollar, but the American currency reversed its course and weakened against most major counterparts, buoyed by stable Asian shares.

However, European markets closed in the negative territory. Market participants eagerly awaited upcoming labour market updates from the United States scheduled for the latter half of the week, as the macroeconomic calendar offered little else of significance.

Chart XAUUSD by TradingView

According to technical analysis, the XAU/USD pair is experiencing an upward movement on Tuesday, with the potential to reach the upper band of the Bollinger Bands. Currently, the price is slightly below the upper band and may potentially move downward towards the middle band of the Bollinger Bands. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently stands at 55, having fallen from a higher level, indicating a neutral stance for XAU/USD.

Resistance: $1,932, $1,939

Support: $1,911, $1,903

Dear Client,

Please note that the dividends of the following products will be adjusted accordingly. Index dividends will be executed separately through a balance statement directly to your trading account, and the comment will be in the following format “Div & Product Name & Net Volume ”.

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In a shortened session marking the start of a new trading month, quarter, and half, stock markets experienced slight gains on Monday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 0.03%, adding 10.87 points to close at 34,418.47.

Similarly, the S&P 500 climbed 0.12% to end at 4,455.59, while the Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.21% to 13,816.77. Tesla shares surged by 6.9% after the company exceeded analysts’ expectations with impressive delivery and production numbers, leading to a boost in other electric vehicles stocks like Rivian, Fisker, and Lucid.

The first half of the year proved to be exceptional for Wall Street, with the Nasdaq Composite registering its highest first-half gain since 1983, surging by 31.7%. The S&P 500 also performed well, jumping 15.9%, marking its best first-half performance since 2019.

Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Average had a more modest gain of 3.8% during the period. Factors such as increasing enthusiasm around artificial intelligence and resilient U.S. economic data, which defied concerns over rising interest rates, contributed to positive investor sentiment.

Investors are now shifting their mindset from fear of missing out (FOMO) to a more positive outlook for the second half of the year. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research, suggests that after a strong first half, investors are considering the potential for continued positive momentum.

While the ISM’s manufacturing purchasing managers’ index for June fell slightly below expectations, signalling a decline in economic activity, investors will be closely watching job market data later in the week for further insights.

Data by Bloomberg

On Monday, the overall market showed a slight increase of 0.12%. Among the different sectors, Consumer Discretionary experienced the highest growth with a positive change of 1.07%, followed by Real Estate at 0.85% and Consumer Staples at 0.69%. Utilities and Financials also saw positive gains with increases of 0.67% and 0.54% respectively.

Energy and Materials both had modest growth of 0.31%. Communication Services had a minimal increase of 0.13%, while Industrials only saw a slight rise of 0.07%. On the other hand, Information Technology suffered a decline of -0.31%, and Health Care experienced the largest decrease with a negative change of -0.82%.

Major Pair Movement

The dollar index initially gained in early European trading but later levelled off as Treasury yields decreased and proved to be less inflationary than anticipated. However, with significant data scheduled to be released later in the week and a U.S. holiday on Tuesday, market reactions remained limited.

The EUR/USD currency pair initially rose from 1.0870 to 1.0934 before stabilizing near unchanged levels. The final eurozone PMI manufacturing index, although slightly higher than the flash estimate, indicated caution for investors and suggested waiting for more data, especially the U.S. claims, ISM services, JOLTS, and employment report to be released later in the week.

The minutes from the Federal Reserve meeting are also set to be released on Wednesday.

USD/JPY broke through a support level that had been holding since June 16. However, despite weaker ISM data, buyers emerged around the 144 level, preventing a significant correction.

For a larger correction to occur, there would need to be a retreat in the spread between Treasury and Japanese Government Bond yields. This retreat seems plausible only if U.S. labour data turns out to be weaker than expected, reversing the trend of mostly positive outcomes.

Additionally, the British pound received a boost following the release of the ISM data, after a previous decline. Market expectations for future rate hikes by the Bank of England continue to overshadow those anticipated by the Federal Reserve.

Picks of the Day Analysis

EUR/USD (4 Hours)

EUR/USD Recovers as Weak US Data and Holidays Keep Market Calm

The EUR/USD rebounded above 1.0900 during the American session as the US dollar lost momentum due to disappointing economic data and the US holidays. The upcoming release of employment data and FOMC minutes will play a crucial role.

Despite negative revisions to the Eurozone Manufacturing PMI, the European Central Bank (ECB) plans to raise interest rates in July and the odds of another hike in September are over 50%. The weaker US dollar pushed the EUR/USD higher, while hawkish Federal Reserve comments provided support.

Chart EURUSD by TradingView

According to technical analysis, the EUR/USD pair remained flat on Monday and reached the middle band of the Bollinger Bands. Currently, the price is slightly above the middle band of the Bollinger Bands, indicating a potential upward movement towards the upper band. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 51, suggesting that the EUR/USD is in a neutral position.

Resistance: 1.0926, 1.0965

Support: 1.0883, 1.0842

XAU/USD (4 Hours)

Spot Gold (XAU/USD) Gains as Weak US Data Pushes Dollar Down

Spot Gold (XAU/USD) experienced a recovery on Monday, bouncing back from its lowest level since mid-March at $1,892.95 per troy ounce. The US Dollar initially found some support but eventually turned south against most rivals during the American session.

The advance of XAU/USD intensified following the release of disappointing US data, with the June ISM Manufacturing PMI falling to 46, missing expectations of 47.2. The contraction in manufacturing output for eight consecutive months, along with easing inflation, has kept financial markets positive and diverted attention away from the USD.

Employment-related figures will be closely watched this week, leading up to the release of the June Nonfarm Payrolls report on Friday.

Chart XAUUSD by TradingView

According to technical analysis, the XAU/USD pair is experiencing an upward movement on Monday, with the ability to reach the upper band of the Bollinger Bands. At present, the price is slightly below the upper band and may potentially move downwards towards the middle band of the Bollinger Bands.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently stands at 56, having risen from a lower level, indicating a neutral stance for XAU/USD.

Resistance: $1,923, $1,932

Support: $1,911, $1,903

Economic Data

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In response to the current market volatility,VT Markets will modify the trading setting of US Shares on July 10, 2023:

The above data is for reference only, please refer to the MT4/MT5 software for specific data.

Friendly reminders:

1. All specifications of forex stay the same except leverage.

2. The margin requirement of the trade may be affected by this adjustment, please make sure the funds in your account are sufficient to hold the position before this adjustment.

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Sydney, Australia, 4 July 2023 – VT Markets, a global multi-asset broker, is proud to announce the expansion of its corporate social responsibility (CSR) with new sponsorship and donation initiatives. In a bid to make a positive impact on the world outside of trading, the brokerage is actively seeking collaborations with individuals and organisations that share its values of servant leadership and sustainable development.

VT Markets recognises that leadership requires more than just being exceptional in the trading industry. It involves actively engaging with communities and contributing in ways that benefit both the economy and the environment. The brokerage firmly believes that businesses have a responsibility to give back and make a meaningful contribution beyond profit margins.

“We challenge the common misconception that businesses lack empathy or concern for society,” affirmed a VT Markets representative. “Corporate social responsibility isn’t an afterthought for us. It represents our ethos as a brokerage firm that prosperity should extend to communities and the environment.”

VT Markets’ sponsorship and donation initiatives aim to empower individuals and organisations striving to improve sectors such as education, healthcare, social welfare, and environmental conservation. The company plans to allocate at least millions over the next few years towards its CSR efforts. By providing this funding, VT Markets hopes these collaborations can impart lasting effects, foster meaningful relationships, and demonstrate that success in business means success for humanity.

VT Markets encourages organisations and charitable causes across the globe to contact the company’s CSR team to discuss partnership opportunities. The team will evaluate each application and determine how VT Markets can best support the most deserving causes.

For more information about VT Markets’ corporate social responsibility initiatives and partnership opportunities, please visit www.vtmarketsmy.com  or contact the CSR team at [email protected] 

About VT Markets:

VT Markets is a global multi-asset broker, providing access to a wide range of financial markets for traders and investors worldwide. With a strong commitment to innovation, technology, and client satisfaction, VT Markets offers competitive trading conditions, advanced trading platforms, and a comprehensive suite of educational resources. As a responsible corporate citizen, VT Markets is dedicated to making a positive impact on society through its corporate social responsibility initiatives.

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Dear Client,

Please note that the dividends of the following products will be adjusted accordingly. Index dividends will be executed separately through a balance statement directly to your trading account, and the comment will be in the following format “Div & Product Name & Net Volume ”.

Please refer to the table below for more details:

The above data is for reference only, please refer to the MT4/MT5 software for specific data.

If you’d like more information, please don’t hesitate to contact [email protected].

As we kick off a new week, market watchers will focus on two key events: the release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes and the US jobs reports. Both have the potential to influence market trends significantly and offer vital insights into the health of the US economy.

Switzerland’s Consumer Price Index (3 July 2023)

Switzerland’s CPI increased by 0.30% in May 2023 from the previous month. 

For June 2023 data, which is set to be released on 3 July, analysts expect a 0.2% increase.

ISM Manufacturing PMI (3 July 2023)

The US ISM Manufacturing PMI fell to 46.9 in May of 2023 from 47.1 in April. 

Analysts predict that for June 2023 data, scheduled for release on July 3rd, the index will be at 48.

Reserve Bank of Australia Rate Statement (4 July 2023)

The RBA unexpectedly raised its cash rate to 4.1% in June, following a similar hike in May. The door remains open for further increases due to persistently high inflation and rising wage growth. 

The next cash rate will be released on 4 July 2023, with analysts expecting the central bank to hold its interest rate at 4.1%.

FOMC Meeting Minutes (5 July 2023)

Fed Chair Powell stated that multiple rate hikes are anticipated this year to combat inflation. The Fed has already raised the policy rate by 5 points since last year, impacting areas like housing and investment. 

While the funds rate target remained the same in June, there could be a rise to 5.6% by year-end if economic and inflation rates don’t decelerate.

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US ISM Services PMI (6 July 2023)

The US ISM Services PMI fell to 50.3 in May 2023 from 51.9 in April, pointing to the fifth consecutive month of expansion in the services sector, but the slowest in the current sequence. 

Data for June 2023 is scheduled for release on 6 July 2023, with analysts anticipating a higher figure of 50.

Canada Employment Change (7 July 2023)

The Canadian economy shed 17.3K jobs in May 2023, the first decline in nine months.The unemployment rate rose to 5.2% after remaining at 5% for the five previous months, the first monthly increase in the unemployment rate since August 2022. 

Analysts predict the June 2023 data, due on 7 July 2023, will show a further job loss of 10,000 and a rise in the unemployment rate to 5.4%.

US Jobs Report (7 July 2023)

The US economy unexpectedly added 339K jobs in May 2023, the most in four months. Concurrently, the unemployment rate increased to 3.7% in May 2023, the highest since October 2022.

Analysts predict that for June 2023, set to be released on 7 July, the Non-Farm Employment will add approximately 250k jobs, with the unemployment rate remaining steady at 3.7%.

Dear Client,

Please note that the dividends of the following products will be adjusted accordingly. Index dividends will be executed separately through a balance statement directly to your trading account, and the comment will be in the following format “Div & Product Name & Net Volume ”.

Please refer to the table below for more details:

The above data is for reference only, please refer to the MT4/MT5 software for specific data.

If you’d like more information, please don’t hesitate to contact [email protected].

The Dow Jones Industrial Average experienced gains as major banks passed the Federal Reserve’s stress test, while an upward revision of the GDP provided relief against recession concerns. The 30-stock index surged by 0.8%, gaining 269.76 points to close at 34,122.42. JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo, and other financial stocks saw significant increases, with each rising by more than 3% and 4.5% respectively.

Positive economic data, including an upward revision in first-quarter GDP and a drop in weekly jobless claims, contributed to the overall sentiment of economic resilience. Despite the strong first half of the year, some caution is advised as Wall Street prepares for a potentially volatile second half.

The S&P 500, up by 14.5% this year, is on track for its best monthly performance since January. The Nasdaq Composite, driven by optimism surrounding artificial intelligence, has climbed nearly 30% and is poised for its best first half since 1983.

In contrast, the Dow has underperformed, with only a 2.9% increase. While the markets have shown strength, experts anticipate the possibility of consolidation and urge investors to utilize market volatility to position themselves for a broader recovery.

Overall, the passing of the stress test and positive economic indicators have contributed to a positive sentiment in the market, but caution remains as Wall Street prepares for potential market fluctuations in the second half of the year.

Find out more about Indices with VT Markets.

Data by Bloomberg

On Thursday, the stock market showed a generally positive performance across various sectors. The overall market, represented by the All-Sectors index, rose by 0.45%. The Financials sector led the gains with a strong increase of 1.67%, followed by Materials with a rise of 1.27% and Energy with a gain of 1.11%.

Industrials also performed well, showing a growth of 0.94%. Real Estate and Health Care sectors exhibited moderate gains of 0.87% and 0.65% respectively. Information Technology experienced a slight increase of 0.13%, while Consumer Discretionary showed a minimal rise of 0.06%.

However, some sectors faced a decline in value. Utilities experienced a slight decrease of 0.05%, while Consumer Staples saw a more notable decline of 0.15%. The Communication Services sector showed the largest decrease among the sectors, with a decline of 0.63%.

Overall, the stock market on Thursday displayed a positive performance, with notable gains in the Financials, Materials, and Energy sectors. The declines in the Utilities, Consumer Staples, and Communication Services sectors represented a small portion of the overall market movement.

Major Pair Movement

The dollar index experienced a 0.34% increase as a result of the upward revision of Q1 GDP and the anticipation of two more rate hikes, causing 2-year Treasury yields to surge by 15 basis points. This surge brought the yields closer to the peak observed in March before the banking crisis.

Two-year bund yields also rose by 7 basis points and are approaching their March highs at 3.395%, while 2-year Treasury yields reached a peak of 5.084% in March. Eurozone core inflation for June is forecasted to be 6.7% year-on-year, slightly lower than the previous figure of 6.9%, and U.S. May core PCE is expected to remain at 4.7%.

However, the core PCE is currently at its highest level since December, while eurozone core inflation, if it meets the forecast, would be at its lowest since December.

The disparity between the European Central Bank’s rates at 3.5% and the inflation rate remains significant, whereas the Federal Reserve’s target range of 5.0-5.25% is higher than the core PCE.

Considering the overall economic data, the dollar has benefited from the divergent performance of the eurozone and the United States, which may result in less negative bund-Treasury yield spreads and a potentially higher EUR/USD exchange rate.

Picks of the Day Analysis

EUR/USD (4 Hours)

EUR/USD Slips as Stronger US Dollar Gains Momentum from Robust Economic Data

The EUR/USD experienced a second consecutive day of losses as it fell below 1.0900, primarily due to a strengthening US Dollar driven by encouraging economic data. Inflation figures in the Eurozone displayed a mixed picture, revealing a slowdown in Spain and a rebound in Germany that came as no surprise.

German inflation in June slightly increased by 6.4%, mainly attributed to reductions in energy prices and transportation costs. However, experts noted that if these factors were excluded, the inflation rate would have declined.

The Eurozone Consumer Price Index data is eagerly awaited on Friday, as the European Central Bank has already indicated an upcoming rate hike in July due to persistently high inflation. Meanwhile, Federal Reserve Chair Powell reiterated a hawkish stance, with policymakers expecting further rate hikes this year.

US economic data exceeded expectations, with Initial Jobless Claims dropping to a four-week low of 239K. The Core Personal Consumption Expenditure Index, the Fed’s favoured inflation gauge, will be closely watched on Friday, as positive figures could solidify expectations of a rate hike soon.

Chart EURUSD by TradingView

According to technical analysis, the EUR/USD pair moved lower on Thursday and reached the lower band of the Bollinger Bands. Currently, the price is moving just above the lower band of the Bollinger Bands which shows that there’s a possibility that the price will move slightly higher to the middle band of the Bollinger Bands. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 36, suggesting that the EUR/USD is slightly bearish.

Resistance: 1.0904, 1.0965

Support: 1.0842, 1.0780

XAU/USD (4 Hours)

XAU/USD Resilience Fades as Strong US Dollar Drives Gold to March Lows

XAU/USD faced vulnerability despite recovering from losses, as a strong US Dollar drove Gold to its lowest level since March at $1,892. However, a subsequent rebound brought it back to the $1,910 range, alleviating bearish pressure.

The overall outlook for bulls remains complicated due to various fundamental factors. US data surpassed expectations, with Initial Jobless Claims hitting a four-week low at 239K, Continuing Claims unexpectedly dropping to 1.742 million, and Q1 GDP growth being revised higher to 2%.

Conversely, Pending Home Sales in May slid 2.7%, defying expectations of a 0.2% increase. The positive labour market and GDP figures indicate a robust US economy, potentially paving the way for further tightening by the Federal Reserve (Fed). US Treasury Yields surged to weekly highs, impacting XAU/USD, with the 10-year yield reaching 3.86%, its highest level since March.

Concurrently, the US Dollar gained momentum, pushing the DXY above 103.30, a two-week high. Although Gold experienced a sharp rebound after dipping below $1,900, it encountered resistance below $1,915 and eventually stabilized around $1,910.

Despite the temporary relief, the bias remains on the downside for Gold, as factors such as Powell’s hints of higher interest rates and robust US data continue to work against the precious metal. The upcoming release of the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure Index on Friday holds significant importance for both the Fed’s decision-making and the future of Gold.

Chart XAUUSD by TradingView

According to technical analysis, the XAU/USD pair is moving lower to as low as $1,892 before going back higher and is able to reach the lower band of the Bollinger Bands. Currently, the price is moving higher to reach the middle band of the Bollinger Bands. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 42 from the lower level, indicating that the XAU/USD is trying to move back in a neutral stance.

Resistance: $1,921, $1,932

Support: $1,903, $1,890

Economic Data

Dear Client,

As part of our commitment to provide the most reliable service to our clients, there will be server maintenance this weekend.

Maintenance Hours :
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