Financial stocks provided a much-needed boost to US stocks on Monday, with Treasuries retracting due to a decrease in concerns over banking turmoil. However, tech shares took a hit after experiencing a surge in the previous week. The purchase of Silicon Valley Bank by First Citizens BancShares Inc. caused a gauge of regional lenders to increase by approximately 2.5%, which, in turn, led to First Republic Bank experiencing a jump. The Bloomberg report about US authorities considering expanding an emergency lending facility also contributed to this surge. Despite the weekend bringing some relief to the banking sector, it will continue to be closely monitored, as a gauge of regional US banks has lost approximately 30% since early February.

The S&P 500 index saw a rise, with financial firms increasing by over 1%, and energy producers also making gains. On the other hand, the Nasdaq 100 ended 0.7% lower, capping a two-week advance. The two-year Treasury yield surpassed 4%. Eight out of eleven of the S&P500 stayed in positive territory, with the Energy and Financial sectors rallying by 2.1% and 1.4% respectively, on a daily basis.

Main Pairs Movement

On Monday, efforts by authorities to ease concerns about the global banking system helped calm investor nerves, resulting in the dollar reaching a five-day high against the Japanese yen. However, the DXY index remained within a narrow range against most major currencies as investors appeared hesitant to place big wagers in either direction. This hesitation was due to their need for clarity on the fallout from the recent collapse of two U.S. lenders and the rescue of Credit Suisse.

GBPUSD gained 0.44% for the day due to market positioning suggesting a 50% chance the Bank of England (BOE) will hold rates steady, and a 70% chance the US Federal Reserve will do the same at their respective next policy meetings. Meanwhile, EURUSD remained on an upside tendency all day and closed with a 0.35% daily gain on Monday.

Gold experienced a 1.09% daily loss due to investors moving away from safe-haven assets. Despite this, the sentiment was positive at the start of the week amid easing concerns related to a global banking crisis. XAUUSD faced heavy selling pressure during the UK trading session but managed to rebound from a daily low level of the $1944 mark to close at the $1956 mark.

Technical Analysis

EURUSD (4-Hour Chart)

The EUR/USD pair saw a slight increase on Monday, moving within a tight range and rebounding toward the 1.0780 area. It is currently trading at 1.0782, with a daily gain of 0.22%. The weaker US Dollar across the board and the US government’s additional support to the local financial system helped the market sentiment recover and kept the EUR/USD pair in positive territory. The news related to financial stability also provided some temporary relief to markets on Monday. In the Eurozone, the Business Climate in Germany improved to 93.3 for March, according to the IFO Institute.

From a technical aspect, the RSI indicator is currently at 58, indicating that the bulls are gaining strength as the RSI heads north after bouncing around its midline. As for the Bollinger Bands, the price has witnessed some buying interest and rose towards the moving average, suggesting that some upside movements can be expected. We believe that the market will remain bullish as long as the 1.0748 support line holds, and technical indicators also remain within positive levels.

Resistance: 1.0834, 1.0903

Support: 1.0748, 1.0669

XAUUSD (4-Hour Chart)

On Monday, as easing bank stress lessened Gold’s safe-haven appeal, along with reports of falling demand from India, the XAU/USD pair saw heavy selling pressure and dropped sharply to a daily low below the 1,948 mark during the US trading session. The Gold price is currently trading at 1,958, losing 1.06% daily. The acquisition of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) by First Citizens Bancshares Inc has limited the damage from SVB’s failure, reducing global banking fears and translating into a rise in US Treasury bond yields. This exerted bearish pressure on the Gold price and lessened demand for safe-haven Gold. This week’s economic calendar highlights await on Friday with Chinese PMIs and the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index.

From a technical aspect, the RSI indicator is currently at 48, suggesting the bullish tilt in the short-term technical outlook as the RSI has rebounded sharply towards the mid-line. As for the Bollinger Bands, the price regained some upside traction and rebounded higher, indicating that some upside movements can be expected. We believe that the market will be slightly bullish as long as the $1,934 support line holds. The rising RSI indicator also reflects bull signals.

Resistance: 1980, 2003

Support: 1934, 1914

Economic Data

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The US stock market closed higher on Friday after regulators assured investors of financial stability, while speculation grew that policymakers will have to consider a rate cut to prevent a recession. Amid concerns over the recent failure of some US regional lenders and the near-collapse of banking giant Credit Suisse Group AG, global authorities have been trying to instill calm in financial markets. Despite some banks coming under stress, top US regulators confirmed that the overall financial system remains sound.

Market participants reacted to the reassurance by abandoning wagers that the Fed will raise interest rates in May and added to bets that its next shift will be a rate cut as early as June. However, Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that cuts are not his “base case.” Similarly, traders no longer price in additional quarter-point rate hikes for the ECB and the Bank of England. The move came as global bonds rallied, with Treasury two-year yields falling to the lowest level since September.

The benchmark S&P500 index rallied with a 0.56% daily gain following a slide that reached 1% in the first hour of trading. Nine out of eleven sectors of the S&P500 remained in the positive territory, showing promising signs of economic recovery. However, the financial sector failed to stay in the positive territory, as First Republic Bank tumbled once again, extending this year’s rout to 90%.

On the other hand, the Nasdaq 100 rose 0.3%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average moved upward by 0.4%. Nonetheless, the MSCI world index slid by 0.2% on Friday, indicating a mixed performance across global markets.

Main Pairs Movement

The US dollar saw a 0.57% surge on Friday, despite speculation that the Fed may end its rate-hiking cycle earlier than previously expected. This was due in part to Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicating that such a move was under consideration by central bank policymakers last week. The DXY index witnessed significant trading activity during the European trading session, reaching a daily high of 103.36 before losing bullish momentum and closing at 103.12.

The EURUSD pair experienced a daily loss of 0.66% on Friday, despite hawkish talks from the European Central Bank (ECB). The pair fell sharply during the European trading session, then managed to rebound from a daily low of 1.0713 to 1.0759 in the American trading hour.

The GBPUSD pair slid 0.44% on Friday, closing at 1.2229. The drop in value may have been influenced by market uncertainty and volatility.

Gold prices saw a daily loss of 0.76% on Friday due to the strength of the US dollar. The XAUUSD witnessed heavy selling pressure during the American trading session, falling below the $1970 mark and struggling to stay around the $1975 mark.

Technical Analysis

EURUSD (4-Hour Chart)

On Friday, the EUR/USD currency pair experienced a significant decline, dropping to a four-day low below the 1.0730 mark during the European session. This was due to a risk-averse market environment, with concerns over a potential banking crisis and unimpressive PMI data releases from the Eurozone and the United Kingdom. The pair is currently trading at 1.0757, posting a 0.65% loss on a daily basis.

The US Dollar has been stronger across the board, supported by the upbeat PMI data releases from the US, which indicated an acceleration of output to the fastest since May of last year. This has boosted the safe-haven US Dollar and undermined the EUR/USD pair.

The RSI indicator currently stands at 45, suggesting that the downside is more favored, as the RSI stays below the mid-line. The Bollinger Bands also indicate a continuation of the downside trend.

Overall, it is expected that the market will be bearish, as the pair tests the 1.0735 support level. If this level is broken, the downward correction could extend toward 1.0621.

Resistance: 1.0834, 1.0903

Support: 1.0735, 1.0621

XAUUSD (4-Hour Chart)

The XAU/USD pair climbed above the $2,000 mark in the early American session on Friday but struggled to maintain its position and reversed its direction towards the $1,990 area during the US trading session. The Gold price is currently trading at $1,995, rising 0.09% on a daily basis. The stalling in Gold’s intraday rally was mainly due to pressure from a strengthening US Dollar, which was supported by a sharp fall in the equity markets and disappointing manufacturing PMIs from the Eurozone and the UK, reviving worries about looming recession risks and lifting demand for the safe-haven US Dollar.

However, the Federal Reserve’s hints of a pause to interest rate hikes could act as a headwind for the greenback and provide some support to the Gold price.

For the technical aspect, the RSI indicator currently stands at 53, suggesting a bearish tilt in the short-term technical outlook. The Bollinger Bands also indicate some downside movements can be expected.

Overall, it is expected that the market will be slightly bearish as long as the $1,989 resistance line holds. A new bull trend might be starting if the pair breaks above the $1,989 resistance.

Resistance: $1,989, $2010

Support: $1,968, $1,933

As the first quarter of 2023 draws to a close, many countries are gearing up to release some major economic data. The US is scheduled to publish its Consumer Confidence (CPI) and Core PCE Price Index reports, while Australia and Germany will be releasing their CPI data. With investors and traders globally eagerly waiting for these reports, you can expect some serious market movements. 

Here are key events to watch out for:

CB Consumer Confidence | US (March 28)

The US CB Consumer Confidence fell to 102.9 in February 2023.

Analysts anticipate it to drop further to 101 in March 2023.

Consumer Price Index (CPI) | Australia (March 29)

Australia’s monthly CPI rose 7.4% in January 2023, but still lower than the 8.4%  rise for the year to December 2022, signifying stubborn high inflation. 

For February 2023, analysts expect it to increase by 7.6%.

Prelim Consumer Price Index (CPI) | Germany (March 30) 

The CPI in Germany increased 0.8% in February 2023, easing from a 1% rise in the previous month.

For March 2023, analysts expect the index to increase by 1.5%.

Gross Domestic Product (GDP)  | Canada (March 31) 

Canada’s GDP shrank by 0.1% in December 2022, following a 0.1% increase in November 2022. Analysts expect the Canadian economy to increase by 0.3% in January 2023.

Core PCE Price Index | US (March 31)

Core PCE prices in the US, which exclude food and energy, jumped by 0.6% month-on-month in January 2023, the most since August, following an upwardly revised 0.4% increase in the previous month.

For February, analysts expect the index to increase by 0.6%.

Despite earlier losses, the US stock market made a significant recovery as traders flocked to some of the world’s largest technology firms, viewed as a reliable haven amidst economic uncertainty and market volatility. In the wake of recent banking instability, these technology stalwarts have generally outperformed other sectors. Despite Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s assurances to lawmakers that further steps would be taken to safeguard deposits, banks experienced a decline in value. It is notable that, in the last week, banks only slightly reduced their borrowings from two Federal Reserve backstop facilities, indicating that financial institutions are taking advantage of the central bank’s liquidity in the aftermath of recent market upheaval.

Mega-cap technology firms such as Apple Inc. and Microsoft Corp. saw gains that brought the Nasdaq 100 close to a bull market, rising almost 20% from its December low. Meanwhile, the S&P500 remained largely unchanged on Thursday, with only two out of eleven stocks showing positive performance. Communication services and information technology, however, experienced a rally, with gains of 1.83% and 1.65% respectively. The Dow Jones Industrial Average also edged higher by 0.2%, and the MSCI world index saw a 0.5% rise on Thursday.

Main Pairs Movement

On Thursday, the dollar bounced back after earlier losses when the U.S. Federal Reserve hinted that it might not increase interest rates anytime soon. Meanwhile, the Swiss National Bank and Bank of England continued with their plans to raise interest rates. The DXY index spent most of the day fluctuating between 102.0 and 102.65, eventually closing at 102.6.

The EUR/USD, which had been on a five-day winning streak, lost ground as the U.S. Dollar regained strength. Towards the end of the Wall Street session, concerns over the banking industry sent Treasury bonds and the dollar higher, resulting in a drop for the pair. Although it had reached a high of 1.0933 earlier in the European session, it fell below 1.0830 in New York, losing most of the gains made after the FOMC meeting.

Gold prices continued to surge higher and traded around $1,995 per troy ounce on Thursday. The XAU/USD pair extended its post-Fed rally as the U.S. central bank hinted at a dovish approach during its Wednesday meeting, causing a sell-off of the dollar. The pair saw fresh activity during the early American trading session and closed with a daily gain of 1.18%.

Technical Analysis

EURUSD (4-Hour Chart)

On Thursday, the EUR/USD pair initially climbed to a multi-week high of around 1.0930 after the release of US data. However, the pair lost its bullish momentum and retreated below 1.0900, currently trading at 1.0893, with a daily gain of 0.36%. The US Dollar’s weakness across the board due to falling US Treasury bond yields and risk flows, following the Fed’s dovish stance, has kept the EUR/USD pair in positive territory.

After the Fed’s March policy meeting, the US Dollar continued to weaken as the central bank raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to the range of 4.75-5%. In the US economic calendar, the US weekly initial jobless claims fell to 191K in the week ending March 18, which was better than the market’s expectations and suggests a stronger labor market than anticipated. In contrast, the consumer sentiment in the Eurozone weakened slightly with the Consumer Confidence Indicator decreasing to -19.2.

From a technical perspective, the RSI indicator sits at 758 indicating possible short-term corrections. However, the price has maintained its upside momentum, moving alongside the upper band of the Bollinger Bands. Hence, a continuation of the uptrend can be expected. Overall, the market may turn slightly bearish as long as the resistance line at 1.0903 holds. If the pair breaks above this resistance, further advances toward 1.0962 are possible.

Resistance: 1.0903, 1.0962

Support: 1.0798, 1.0735

XAUUSD (4-Hour Chart)

During Thursday’s trading session, XAUUSD experienced a 1.24% increase, rebounding strongly after a brief dip due to lower-than-expected jobless claims. Traders bought the dip after the release of Initial Jobless Claims data, which showed that fewer Americans are signing up for unemployment benefits than anticipated, causing a spike lower. As of now, XAU/USD is trading up on the day at $1,994.

Gold prices rose significantly after the March FOMC meeting on Wednesday when the US Federal Reserve suggested that tighter credit conditions due to banking stress could help bring down inflation. The next significant release on the economic calendar for XAUUSD will likely be the US Durable Goods Orders, which track the sale of big-ticket items. This data is scheduled for release on Friday, March 24, at 12:30 GMT and is expected to show a 0.6% rise in MoM in February from the previous month -4.5%. The core figure, which excludes transportation and defense, will also be of interest to investors, with the former expected to rise by 0.2% and the latter by 0.0%.

From a technical perspective, the uptrend that began at the start of March remains intact, as reflected in the 4-hour chart above. The underside of the just-broken trendline is likely to provide an initial target and resistance at $1,991, and the Gold price will probably pull back at that level. However, an eventual rally all the way to the yearly highs at $2,010 is quite possible. An upside break will call for a test of Tuesday’s high at $1,985, above which the $2,000 round figure will be challenged.

Resistance: $2,010, $2,050

Support: $1,968, $1,935

Economic Data

On Wednesday, the US stock market experienced a significant downturn as investors were hit with a double dose of stress. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s remarks on the state of the banking system rattled bank shares, while Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell dashed hopes for rate cuts shortly. This sent the financial sector into a tailspin and weighed on the broader stock indexes.

During her testimony to lawmakers, Yellen stated that the government is not considering providing “blanket” deposit insurance to stabilize the banking system. This sent financial shares plummeting and caused broader stock indexes to suffer as a result. Investors were already on edge due to inflation concerns and rising interest rates, and Yellen’s remarks fueled the fire.

Adding to investors’ concerns, Powell also stated that he is prepared to keep tightening until inflation shows signs of cooling. The market had initially risen as the Fed delivered the expected 25 basis-point hikes and kept its year-end rate projection intact. However, Powell’s comments caused the market to give up its gains and turn negative.

In a broad-based selloff, the S&P 500 erased a rally that had approached 1% and finished the day with a 1.7% slide. All eleven sectors of the S&P 500 stayed in negative territory, indicating a pessimistic market mood. It’s worth noting that all 22 stocks in the KBW Bank Index retreated, with the measure of US financial heavyweights down almost 5%.

Main Pairs Movement

On Wednesday, the US Dollar experienced a significant drop to its lowest level in almost seven weeks after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates as expected. However, a change in the bank’s language indicated a potential policy shift that could lead to the bank reaching its terminal rate sooner than expected. As a result, the DXY index fell by almost 0.8% and closed at a level of 102.54.

The EURUSD pair surged by 0.82% on a daily basis after the President of the European Central Bank, Christine Lagarde, mentioned that underlying inflation dynamics remain strong and that they have not committed to raising interest rates further or finished hiking. The pair rallied dramatically following the Fed’s interest rate decision and closed at a level of 1.0856 on Wednesday. Meanwhile, the GBPUSD pair earned a 0.42% daily gain and closed at a level of 1.2262.

Gold also experienced a significant gain of 1.55% on Wednesday as US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s comments suggested no out-of-the-line support for United States banks, which seemed to weigh on Treasury bond yields and propel the XAU/USD price. The yellow metal surged with a 1.26% daily gain and closed at the $1970 mark for the day.

Technical Analysis

EURUSD (4-Hour Chart)

On Wednesday, the EUR/USD pair continued to rise for the fifth consecutive session, nearing the 1.0800 area prior to the US session and posting a daily gain of 0.18%. This rise was mainly due to the weaker US Dollar, as US Treasury bond yields experienced a sharp decline. The markets are expecting the Federal Reserve to announce a 0.25% hike in the Fed Funds Rate to a target range of 4.75%-5.00% during the meeting. However, traders believe that the Fed cannot be as aggressive as it would like to be due to the international banking crisis triggered by the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank. In the Eurozone, the European Central Bank President, Christine Lagarde, has pledged to bring down inflation, as there is no clear evidence that underlying inflation is trending downwards.

From a technical standpoint, the RSI indicator stands at 80, indicating that the bulls are in control, as the RSI is entering the overbought zone. The price has maintained its upward momentum and moved alongside the upper Bollinger Band, suggesting that the upside trend may continue. Overall, we expect the market to remain bullish as the pair tests the 1.0903 resistance level. However, there may be a downward correction in the near term before the pair climbs higher.

Resistance: 1.0903, 1.0962

Support: 1.0798, 1.0735

XAUUSD (4-Hour Chart)

On Wednesday, XAUUSD stabilized around $1,940 ahead of the Federal Reserve’s rate-setting meeting, while Wall Street’s main indexes struggled for direction due to uncertainty in the banking sector. Traders have lowered their expectations for the interest rate hike to 25 basis points, citing concerns about liquidity in the banking sector and the Fed’s aggressive monetary tightening over the past year as reasons for the crisis. At the time of writing, the price of gold is trading at $1,948.70.

From a technical perspective, the 20-period moving average at $1,964 is currently providing support for the market. If this level is breached, we could see further weakness toward the recent range low at $1,933. On the other hand, if gold breaks above the recent retest of $1,985, it could gain further upside momentum to reach above the $2,000 level.

Resistance: 1985, 2010

Support: 1933, 1898

Economic Data

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Wall Street’s fear gauge, the VIX, saw its largest two-day plunge since May as the recent financial turmoil eased, resulting in a rebound of stocks. This surge in banks and assurances from authorities has restored a sense of order to the market for the time being. As the Federal Reserve decision approaches, traders are anticipating another 25 basis-point hikes, indicating officials’ commitment to battling inflation and maintaining financial stability. The uncertainty over the Fed’s decision is currently among the highest since the pandemic sparked emergency rate cuts in 2020. Policymakers are also expected to provide updated rate projections for the first time since December, which will offer guidance on whether additional hikes can be expected this year.

In the benchmark, the S&P 500 topped 4,000 and extended its advance above the key 200-day moving average. The Cboe Volatility Index, which briefly exceeded 30 last week for the first time since October, plummeted to around 21. This led to every stock in a measure of US financial heavyweights climbing, with First Republic Bank surging almost 30% due to optimism over a new plan under discussion to aid the regional lender. Furthermore, seven out of eleven sectors stayed in positive territory, indicating an improvement in market risk sentiment.

For investors, the recent rally in the market and decline in the VIX could signal a return to a more stable investing environment. However, it is important to note that market conditions can change rapidly, and investors should remain vigilant in monitoring their portfolios. As the Fed’s decision approaches, investors should be prepared for potential market volatility. Additionally, it may be wise to consider diversifying portfolios to mitigate potential risks.

Main Pairs Movement

On Tuesday, the dollar pared earlier losses as traders considered the possibility that banking stress could prevent the Federal Reserve and Bank of England from hiking interest rates much further or at all later in the week. The DXY index edged lower with 0.07% daily losses, experiencing some selling during the European trading session before climbing to the 103.2 level in the middle of the American trading hour.

Meanwhile, the GBPUSD dropped with 0.5% losses on a daily basis, marking the first negative day in consecutive four days. Mixed concerns over the Brexit deal’s acceptance and hawkish Fed bets teased sellers, leading to a drop to a daily low of 1.2179 level in early US trading hours, before recovering to the 1.2220 level. In contrast, the EURUSD surged to a level above 1.0780 and closed at 1.077 with a 0.44% daily gain on Tuesday.

However, gold slumped with 1.96% losses on a daily basis, as investors remained anxious ahead of the key Federal Reserve (Fed) Interest Rate Decision. The market mood is fragile, and any incident could trigger wild market reactions. The XAUUSD faced strong corrective pullback pressure for the day, falling to a daily low of the $1935 mark during the middle of the American trading hour.

Investors are keeping a close eye on the Fed’s decision, as it could have a significant impact on market conditions. As always, it is essential for investors to remain vigilant and closely monitor their portfolios to mitigate potential risks.

Technical Analysis

EURUSD (4-Hour Chart)

On Tuesday, the EUR/USD pair rose higher, with buyers entering the market ahead of the European session. The pair continued its recent rally, reaching the 1.0780 area, driven by a persistent hawkish narrative from some ECB speakers. The EUR/USD pair is currently trading at 1.0765, posting a 0.45% gain on a daily basis. The positive sentiment in the financial markets and the weaker US dollar are also contributing to the pair’s rise.

Traders are anticipating that the Fed may cut rates due to the failure of two banks in the United States and another on the brink of default, which has shifted global central banks’ interest rate increase expectations. In the Eurozone, measures to support the global financial system and news that JPMorgan Chase is assisting First Republic Bank have helped the market mood recover, providing support to the shared currency.

From a technical standpoint, the RSI indicator currently stands at 65, indicating that the chances favor the bears as the RSI begins to turn south below 70. The price failed to extend its upside traction and retreated from the upper band of the Bollinger Bands, suggesting that some downside movement may be expected. Overall, the market is expected to be bearish as long as the 1.0790 resistance line holds. However, a break above this resistance could open up the possibility of additional gains.

Resistance: 1.0790, 1.0830

Support: 1.0730, 1.0688

XAUUSD (4-Hour Chart)

The XAUUSD has stopped its upward trend and has started heading south this week due to improvements in risk appetite and rising US Treasury bond yields. At the time of writing, the gold price is trading at a day low of $1,941 and continues to trend downwards. Traders’ fears have calmed in the last 48 hours after the UBS takeover of Credit Suisse, and US banks have continued to try to stabilize First Republic Bank. The Federal Reserve is expected to begin its March monetary policy meeting, with traders anticipating a 25 bps rate hike as Powell and Co. continue their efforts to curb stubbornly high inflation. Another reason for gold’s fall is the rising US Treasury bond yields, with the US 10-year Treasury bond yield up nine bps at 3.58%. The 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, a proxy for US Real Yields, stands at 1.351% after tumbling as low as 1.142% on March 16.

From a technical standpoint, the XAUUSD’s daily chart indicates a bullish bias in the yellow metal. However, the price action in the last three days could form an evening star candlestick chart pattern, indicating that gold may drop in the near term. The first support would be the March 15 daily high turned support at $1933, followed by the $1914 barrier. Once cleared, the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1892 is next. The RSI sits at 62.

Resistance: 1958, 1996

Support: 1933, 1914

Economic Data

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The recent financial turmoil has led to speculation about a slower pace of tightening from major central banks. To shore up market confidence, regulators worldwide have rushed to take action, and global central banks have united with the Federal Reserve to ease access to supplies of the US currency.

Despite the banking turbulence, there has been no dash for dollars, indicating that the financial system may not be experiencing undue stress. Just a few weeks ago, investors were betting on the Fed raising rates to almost 6%, and the European Central Bank hiking past 4%. However, now the markets imply that the tightening cycles are almost over, and there are expectations for four rate cuts in the US by the end of the year. The overnight indexed swaps price in a 75% chance of a quarter-point hike by the Fed this week.

The S&P 500 benchmark saw all 11 groups gaining, and there was a decrease in the earlier flight-to-safety bid. A gauge of US lenders climbed after last week’s 15% rout. Despite missing out on a rebound by its regional peers led by New York Community Bancorp, UBS Group AG rose as investors focused on the upside of its Credit Suisse Group AG takeover.

On the other hand, the Nasdaq 100, which had the biggest weekly surge since November, underperformed as a recovery in risk appetite sent Treasuries slumping.

Main Pairs Movement

On Monday, the US Dollar experienced its third consecutive session of decline, with the DXY index showing strong bearish momentum throughout the day and closing just below 103.3 – the lowest level of the day. This drop is attributed to the rush to add liquidity to the monetary system, which is seen as a clear negative for the dollar and a sign of financial stress.

In contrast, the GBPUSD pair saw a significant gain of 0.86% on Monday, thanks to the overall weakness of the US Dollar. The pair continued to experience strong upside traction and saw fresh transactions during the European trading session. The EURUSD pair also managed to attract some buying interest during the late UK trading hour and gained 0.48% on Monday.

However, Gold prices saw a decline of 0.52% on Monday after reaching a year-high above the $2000 mark. This drop was attributed to investors trying to recover their optimism after concerns about global financial stability were triggered by various banks’ failures. The XAUUSD pair experienced strong pullback pressure, touching the daily low of $1966 during the early American trading session before regaining positive traction and trading around the $1980 mark.

Technical Analysis

EURUSD (4-Hour Chart)

On Monday, the EUR/USD pair saw a gain of 0.55%, as it continued to build on last week’s rebound from the 1.0520 mark, with the global risk sentiment turning positive. The weaker US Dollar across the board also contributed to the pair staying in positive territory. The market is now pricing in a smaller lift-off of 25 bps at the end of the two-day FOMC monetary policy meeting starting on Tuesday, due to the recent collapse of two mid-sized US banks.

The focus is now on the FOMC decision on Wednesday. In the Eurozone, European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde said that inflation is projected to remain too high for too long, which acted as a tailwind for the shared currency.

From a technical standpoint, the RSI indicator currently stands at 61, suggesting that the chances are on the bulls’ side as the RSI rises toward the overbought zone. The Bollinger Bands also indicate that the price is climbing toward the upper band, suggesting that the upside momentum should persist. Therefore, it is expected that the market will be bullish as the pair heads towards testing the 1.0746 resistance line. Technical indicators also advance well above their midlines, supporting higher highs in the upcoming sessions.

Resistance: 1.0746, 1.0790

Support: 1.0637, 1.0542

XAUUSD (4-Hour Chart)

The XAU/USD pair paused its uptrend on Monday after advancing over 10% since March 8 and reaching the round $2,000 level. The pair retreated to $1,967 during the US trading session and is currently trading at $1,978, posting a 0.50% loss on a daily basis. The bearish pressure on the Gold price was due to the positive turn in the 10-year US Treasury bond yield near 3.5% following a sharp decline seen in the European session. The weekend announcement of UBS Bank’s acquisition of Credit Suisse in a historic $3.3 billion deal temporarily reassured investors and stabilized sentiment. However, the risk of contagion spreading across the broader banking sector still remains, leading investors to seek safe-haven assets like Gold.

From a technical standpoint, the RSI indicator currently stands at 75, suggesting that the pair could experience some short-term corrections as the RSI retreats from the overbought section. The failure of the price to climb higher and drop from the upper band in the Bollinger Bands also indicates that some downside movements can be expected. Therefore, it is expected that the market will be slightly bearish as long as the 1,996 resistance line holds. The chances of a new bear trend might start if the pair breaks below the 1,956 support.

Resistance: 1996, 2033

Support: 1956, 1933

Economic Data