On Wednesday, U.S. central bank officials raised interest rates to a new range of 3.0% to 3.25%. Policymakers also expect to lift rates higher than before and maintain that level, projecting the fed funds rate rising to 4.4% by the end of this year and 4.6% by the end of 2023. Numerous central banks from all over the world Thursday followed the Fed’s lead. The Bank of England increased its key rate by 50 basis points, and Switzerland’s National Bank hiked it by 75 basis points. Market observers also anticipate the European Central Bank to raise rates when it meets next month.

After the Federal Reserve’s most recent policy announcement and following comments from Chair Jerome Powell drove markets into chaos, U.S. stocks ended Thursday’s volatile day lower. The benchmark S&P 500 dropped by 0.9%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 100 points. The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite fell 1.4%. The moves extend a Fed-induced sell-off Wednesday that saw the S&P 500 and Dow each erase around 1.7% and the Nasdaq plummet 1.8%, and mark a third straight day of declines for U.S. equity markets.

Boeing Co. agreed to pay $200 million to settle Securities and Exchange Commission allegations that the company and its former Chief Executive Officer Dennis Muilenburg failed to disclose safety issues with its 737 Max jetliner, resolving one of the final US investigations related to two crashes that killed 346 people.

The settlement, announced by the SEC on Thursday, concludes a probe into whether Boeing withheld key information from shareholders about a flawed software system linked to the 2018 and 2019 crashes. The SEC said the company and its former CEO violated securities laws by making “materially misleading” public statements. Without admitting or denying the findings, Boeing and Muilenburg agreed to pay $200 million and $1 million, respectively, to settle the allegations.

Main Pairs Movement

Following the US Federal Reserve meeting, several central banks made monetary policy announcements. The Bank of Japan decided to maintain its current monetary policy. . After reaching an intraday high of 145.89 during the meeting, the USD/JPY pair fell sharply to 140.34. It currently trades at around 142.40. The benchmark rate at Switzerland National Bank was increased by 75 basis points. However, USD/CHF advanced, ending the day in the 0.9780 price zone. The Bank of England, pulled the trigger by 50 bps.

The EUR/USD lacks conviction on Thursday, moving between small gains and losses, likely constrained by rising U.S. The EUR/USD pair trades around 0.9830, meeting intraday sellers at around 0.9900. The AUD/USD pair posted a modest intraday advance and hovers around 0.6640/50, while USD/CAD trades at 1.3480.

Spot gold posted a modest intraday gain and settled at $1,672 a troy ounce. Crude oil prices ended the day essentially steady, with WTI now changing hands at $83.50 a barrel.

Technical Analysis

EURUSD (4-Hour Chart)

After a 1.3% loss over the previous trading day, EURUSD has found footing around the 0.98 price level. The Dollar index continued to trend higher during Asia and European trading sessions on the 22nd, but demand for the U.S. Greenback slowed as the American trading session began. The key U.S. 10-year treasury yield has soared passed 3.7% as the short-term yield curve continues to get even more loaded after the Fed remarks on the 21^st. On the economic docket, Germany is set to release its manufacturing PMI for September during the European trading session today.

On the technical side, EURUSD has found support near our previously estimated support level of 0.98; however, the previously estimated support level of 0.99 has changed polarity to become a short-term resistance for the pair. RSI for the pair sits at 43.66, as of writing. On the four-hour chart, EURUSD currently trades below its 50, 100, and 200-day SMA.

Resistance: 1.0011, 1.0055

Support: 0.9902, 0.98

GBPUSD (4-Hour Chart)

Cable some upward movement ahead of the BoE’s interest rate decision; however, the pair soon faced selling pressure after the BoE announced an increase of 50 basis points on its benchmark interest rate. The hawkish stance of the BoE failed to attract sustained demand for the British Pound as markets have already priced in a 50 basis point rate hike by the BoE; furthermore, the economic fundamentals of Britain have not improved by much since the BoE’s last interest rate decision. Without a press conference by the BoE following its interest rate announcement, market participants are left to interpret the central bank’s move on their own. On the economic docket, the U.K. will announce PMI data during today’s European trading session.

On the technical side, GBPUSD has found support at slightly above our previously estimated support level of 1.12. Our previous estimated support level of 1.1463 has changed polarity and now becomes a short-term resistance level for GBPUSD. RSI for the pair sits at 47.55, as of writing. On the four-hour chart, GBPUSD currently trades below its 50, 100, and 200-day SMA.

Resistance: 1.1561, 1.1854

Support: 1.1463, 1.12

XAUUSD (4-Hour Chart)

Gold has shrugged off the impacts of interest rate hikes by global central banks and managed to find upward traction amid escalating tensions in global geopolitical events. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s decision to mobilize half of Russia’s military forces has caused concern among market participants. At the onset of the Russia-Ukraine war, Gold staged a historical rally to beyond $2050 per ounce as market participants fled for safety. A rare and irregular rally of the non-yielding metal, however, should not be ruled out under current geopolitical conditions—tensions rising in the South China sea, possible further escalation of the Russian- Ukrainian war, and the competition for global domination between China and the U.S.—are all possible catalysts for a historical run by Gold.

On the technical side, XAUUSD has found support near our previously estimated support level of $1660 per ounce. The secondary support for the precious metal remains at $1600 per ounce. Near-term resistance for the pair stands at $1695 per ounce. RSI for the pair sits at 37.62, as of writing. On the four-hour chart, XAUUSD currently trades below its 50, 100, and 200-day SMA.

Resistance: 1695, 1724

Support: 1660, 1600

Economic Data

US stocks tumbled on Wednesday, suffering from heavy losses and extended their intra-day slide as traders were overwhelmed by the many headlines that followed the Federal Reserve decision. The American central bank hiked the benchmark rate by 75 bps to 3.25% as widely anticipated, meanwhile spurring volatility across the FX board and exerting bearish pressure on equity markets. The Fed Chief Jerome Powell was cautiously optimistic about economic progress and has signalled even more aggressive hikes than investors had envisioned, as he said that Fed officials were strongly resolved to bring inflation down to the Fed’s 2% goal and will keep at it until the job is done. Officials forecast that rates would reach 4.4% by the end of this year and 4.6% in 2023.

In the Eurozone, market sentiment was hit by rising geopolitical tensions as Russian President Vladimir Putin announced a mobilization of reserve forces to support the Ukraine war. EU member states have also held a meeting to discuss a coordinated response to the continuation of the war.

The benchmarks, S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average both retreated sharply on Wednesday as the S&P 500 extended its plunge from a January record to more than 20%. The S&P 500 was down 1.7% on a daily basis and the Dow Jones Industrial Average also dropped lower with a 1.7% loss for the day. All eleven sectors in S&P 500 stayed in negative territory as the Consumer Discretionary and the Communication Services sectors are the worst performing among all groups, losing 2.37% and 2.29%, respectively. The Nasdaq 100 meanwhile declined the most with a 1.8% loss on Wednesday and the MSCI World index was down 1.5% for the day.

Main Pairs Movement
The US dollar surged higher on Wednesday, preserving its upside momentum and extended the rally towards the 111.0 mark in the late US trading session following the interest rate decision by the Federal Reserve. Fed’s Powell has announced a third consecutive rate hike by 75 bps to tame inflation sooner, which provided strong support to the safe-haven greenback.

GBP/USD suffered daily losses on Wednesday with a 0.97% loss as the cable licked Fed-linked wounds at a 37-year low under the 1.1300 mark after a volatile day. On the UK front, UK Business Department announced that it would cap the cost of electricity and gas for businesses. Meanwhile, EUR/USD coming under bearish momentum and approaches multi-year lows near the 0.982 mark amid the stronger US dollar across the board. The pair was down almost 1.30% for the day.

Gold advanced higher with a 0.53% gain for the day after refreshing its daily top above the $1,687 mark during the US trading session, as the safe-haven metal staged a moderate rebound after a volatile session amid Fed’s monetary policy meeting. Meanwhile, WTI Oil dropped further with a 1.24% loss for the day after retreating from a daily high near the $86.6 area amid fears of energy demand. However, Russia’s mobilization of troops also renewed supply fears.

Technical Analysis

EURUSD (4-Hour Chart)

The Euro sank 1.33% against the U.S. Greenback as the Fed announced its highly anticipated interest rate decision. The Fed has announced a 75 basis point increase on its benchmark interest rate, the fourth interest rate hike for the year. The magnitude of the rate hike came in alignment with market expectations; however, Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech has once again conveyed the central bank’s determination to bring inflation down by all means necessary. The Fed has also raised its terminal rate projection to 4.25% ~ 4.5%. Dissecting Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech, markets should expect at least one more 75 basis point rate hike before the end of the year.

On the technical side, EURUSD has broken below our previously estimated support level of 0.9902 and is heading towards the next level of support at around the 0.98 price region. Parity has now become the short-term resistance for EURUSD. RSI for the pair sits at 35.73, as of writing. On the four-hour chart, EURUSD currently trades below its 50, 100, and 200-day SMA.

Resistance:  1.0011, 1.0055

Support: 0.9902, 0.98

GBPUSD (4-Hour Chart)

Cable witnessed a 1% drop over the course of yesterday’s trading. The 75 basis point interest rate hike induced a surge in demand for the U.S. Greenback. The Dollar index rose more than 1% and broke above 112 at one point. The Fed raising terminal interest rate projections has further pushed implied yields upward. However, the BoE is scheduled to release its interest rate decision during today’s European trading session. A 50 basis point interest rate hike is expected from the BoE, however, policymakers could be torn between dismal economic projections and price pressure from the energy sector. Hiking rates is certainly more difficult for the BoE, relative to the Fed, as recent economic data releases from the U.K. has not supported the rhetoric for a hawkish BoE.

On the technical side, GBPUSD has broken below our previously estimated support level of 1.1463 amid an extremely strong Dollar. Our estimated secondary level of support for Cable sits at 1.12. RSI for the pair sits at 31.79, as of writing. On the four-hour chart, GBPUSD currently trades below its 50, 100, and 200-day SMA.

Resistance: 1.1561, 1.1854

Support: 1.1463, 1.12

XAUUSD (4-Hour Chart)

Gold rose against the Dollar over the course of yesterday’s trading. A number of factors allowed the non-yielding metal to rise against the surging Dollar. First, Russian president Vladimir Putin’s announcement for partial mobilization of the Russian military force has sparked a flight to gold as market participants fear a worsening of the Russian-Ukraine War. Second, Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech after the interest rate announcement seems to indicate that the central bank is no longer aiming for a “soft landing” and a recession could provoke demand for the precious metal. However, market participants should note that the Fed has upwardly revised its year-end terminal interest rate target and its long-term inflation target, thus Gold, the non-yielding asset, could still fare worse against the Dollar over a longer horizon.

On the technical side, XAUUSD successfully defended our previously estimated support level of $1,660 per ounce. Secondary support for the yellow metal rests at the $1,600 per ounce price level. RSI for the pair sits at 37.74, as of writing. On the four-hour chart, XAUUSD currently trades below its 50,100, and 200-day SMA.

Resistance: 1740, 1800

Support: 1660, 1600

Economic Data

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US stocks declined on Tuesday, coming under bearish pressure and suffered daily losses as traders are bracing for a hawkish Federal Reserve that’s expected to boost rates to levels not seen since before the 2008 financial crisis. The US Federal Reserve will announce its monetary policy decision during the US trading session on Wednesday, which is expected to hike rates by at least 75 bps given stubbornly high inflation. The Fed could step up its policy rate by 100 bps, given the tight labour market and robust retail demand. As for now, the Fed’s foremost priority is to bring price stability into the economy and could not let high inflation destroys the confidence of consumers in the economy.

In the Eurozone, European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde has cleared that the central bank is committed to bringing down the price pressures in whatever it takes, which might scale up its interest rates further.

The benchmarks, S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average both retreated lower on Tuesday as the slide in equities pushed the S&P 500 more than 10% below its Aug. 16 high. The S&P 500 was down 1.1% on a daily basis and the Dow Jones Industrial Average also dropped lower with a 1.0% loss for the day. All eleven sectors in S&P 500 stayed in negative territory as the Real Estate and the Materials sectors are the worst performing among all groups, losing 2.57% and 1.90%, respectively. The Nasdaq 100 meanwhile declined the least with a 0.9% loss on Tuesday and the MSCI World index was down 0.9% for the day.

Main Pairs Movement

The US dollar advanced higher on Tuesday, witnessing upside strength and refreshed its daily top above 110.2 level in the late US trading session amid the souring market mood. The higher US government bond yields have provided support to the safe-haven greenback, which soared to its highest in fifteen years ahead of the US Federal Reserve announcement on Wednesday.

GBP/USD suffered daily losses on Tuesday with a 0.47% loss as the market braces for the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy announcement. On the UK front, PM Lizz Truss unveiled a slew of policy measures that included a cut in the stamp duty. Meanwhile, EUR/USD remained under pressure and extended its intraday slide towards the 0.9960 area amid the stronger US dollar across the board. The pair was down almost 0.50% for the day.

Gold was facing selling pressure after retreating lower to daily lows around the $1,662 mark during the US trading session, as the expectations of a bigger-than-expected Fed rate hike have acted as a headwind for the safe-haven metal. Meanwhile, WTI Oil dropped further with a 1.08% loss for the day and touched a daily low near the $83 area as the sentiment surrounding surging inflation and tighter monetary policy continues to weigh on the oil price.

Technical Analysis

EURUSD (4-Hour Chart)

The Euro has seen some downward pressure as the U.S. Greenback continues to gain traction ahead of the key Fed interest rate decision. Volatility should be limited before the Wednesday American trading session for the foreign exchange market. U.S. 10-year treasury yield has blown past the 3.5% threshold as market participants now fully anticipate at least a 75 basis point interest rate hike by the Fed. The German Producer Price Index rose to 45.8%, compared to 37.2% in August. EU inflation has continued to rise further despite the ECB’s move to leave negative interest rate territory. The economic slowdown and soaring energy prices will continue to plague the European economy and ECB’s ability to implement effective interest rate interventions.

On the technical side, EURUSD has successfully defended our previous estimated support level of 0.9969. Should the Fed surprise markets with a more-than-expected interest rate hike, EURUSD could spike down toward our estimated support level of 0.9902. RSI for the pair sits at 43.81, as of writing. On the four-hour chart, EURUSD currently trades below its 50, 100, and 200-day SMA.

Resistance:  1.0011, 1.0055

Support: 0.9969, 0.9902

GBPUSD (4-Hour Chart)

Cable has entered a consolidation phase around the 1.13 price region ahead of the Fed and BoE interest rate decisions. Short-term interest rates on U.S. government treasuries have risen significantly as markets are now completely pricing in a 75 basis point interest rate hike by the Fed. The rhetoric around a super-sized interest rate hike by the Fed has subsided as economic data from the previous releases have shown signs of economic slowdown in the U.S. The BoE is expected to raise interest rates by a further 50 basis points, but agreement on the magnitude and frequency of interest rate hikes still remains a debate among members of the BoE.

On the technical side, GBPUSD has touched our previous estimated support level of 1.1463. In the case of a super-sized interest rate hike by the Fed, Cable could break below historical lows of 1.07225. RSI for the pair sits at 31.42, as of writing. On the four-hour chart, GBPUSD currently trades below its 50, 100, and 200-day SMA.

Resistance: 1.1561, 1.1854

Support: 1.1463, 1.07225

XAUUSD (4-Hour Chart)

Gold has continued to trend lower against the U.S. Greenback ahead of the Fed interest rate decision. While the U.S. 10-year treasury yield soars past 3.5%, the non-yielding yellow metal continues to lose appeal to market participants. While, traditionally, Gold has been a tool to hedge against inflation, the pace of monetary tightening from global central banks has outpaced any hedging capabilities of the yellow metal.  A surprise 100 basis point interest rate hike by the Fed could send Gold further into correction territory. The $1,600 per ounce price level will be key for Gold in the coming weeks as it marks the level just prior to the astronomic rise of Gold in 2020.

On the technical side, XAUUSD has consolidated around our previously estimated support level of $1,660 per ounce. The second level of support is established around the $1,600 per ounce level. RSI for the yellow metal sits at 37.33, as of writing. On the four-hour chart, XAUUSD currently trades below its 50, 100, and 200-day SMA.

Resistance: 1740, 1800

Support: 1660, 1600

Economic Data

US stocks staged a goodish rebound on Monday, regaining upside strength and pushed higher in the final hour of the US trading session as financial markets will likely remain in wait-and-see ahead of central banks’ decisions. Traders are geared for another super-sized US rate increase amid multiple central banks’ announcements scheduled for later in the week, as the Fed is expected to hike the rate by 75 basis points regardless of the potential effects on economic growth. On top of that, US President Biden’s readiness to back Taiwan in case China attacks Taipei and upbeat covid updates from China both favoured the market mood yesterday and acted as a tailwind for the equity market.

In the Eurozone, comments from ECB President Christine will remain the focus for traders ahead of the key Wednesday amid the EU policymakers’ readiness to use emergency powers to avoid a supply crisis, as ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos said on Monday that growth slowdown is not enough to ease inflation.

The benchmarks, S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average both climbed higher on Monday as the rally in mega-caps like Apple Inc. and Tesla Inc. drove a late-day rebound for the market. The S&P 500 was up 0.7% on a daily basis and the Dow Jones Industrial Average also edged higher with a 0.6% gain for the day. Nine out of eleven sectors in the S&P 500 stayed in positive territory as the Materials and the Consumer Discretionary are the best performing among all groups, rising 1.63% and 1.34%, respectively. The Nasdaq 100 meanwhile advanced the most with a 0.8% gain on Monday and the MSCI World index was up 0.4% for the day.

Main Pairs Movement
The US dollar was little changed on Monday, failing to preserve its upside traction and retreated to a daily low near 109.6 level in the late US session amid the recovering market sentiment. Traders brace for major central bank decisions as over fifteen institutions are set to decide between Wednesday and Thursday, including the US Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, and the Switzerland National Bank.

GBP/USD rebounded slightly on Monday with a 0.14% gain as the slightly positive market sentiment lifted the cable higher towards the 1.143 area. On the UK front, the Bank of England is expected to increase the Bank’s Rate by 50 bps on Thursday. Meanwhile, EUR/USD recovered slightly from daily lows and extended its late-day rebound toward the 1.003 mark touching a three-day top above the 1.003 level amid a light calendar and an absence of the UK and Japan. The pair was up almost 0.10% for the day.

Gold was nearly unchanged for the day after recovering from daily lows around the $1,660 mark during the US trading session, as the pre-event cautious, a light calendar and quiet macro both contributed to the metal’s inaction. Meanwhile, WTI Oil advanced higher with a 0.22% gain for the day and rebounded back to the $86 area as markets remain in anticipation of the Federal Reserve and a slew of other central banks that meet this week.

Technical Analysis

EURUSD (4-Hour Chart)

After rising for three straight trading sessions, EURUSD reversed course on the first trading day of the week. The shared currency fared worse against the U.S. Greenback as demand for the Dollar rose on Monday. Trading for the pair, however, has been rather thin and range-bound ahead of the key FOMC meeting, scheduled for Wednesday’s American trading session. Markets are now fully pricing in at least a 75 basis point interest rate hike by the Fed. Should the Fed deliver a super-sized rate hike of 1 percentage point, the U.S. Dollar could surge as short-term interest rates are likely to soar into the historical territory. On the economic docket, ECB president Lagarde is scheduled to speak on the 21^st.

On the technical side, EURUSD has continued to trade below our previously estimated resistance level of near parity. The support level for EURUSD rests at 0.9956. Further down support for EURUSD rests at 0.9902. RSI for the pair sits at 50.31, as of writing. On the four-hour chart, EURUSD currently trades below its 50, 100, and 200-day SMA.

Resistance:  1.0011, 1.0055

Support: 0.9969, 0.9902

GBPUSD (4-Hour Chart)

Cable saw thin trading and limited price movement on the first trading day of the week as Britain’s trading hours are limited due to the national funeral of Queen Elizabeth II. Range-bound trading for Cable should be expected before the 21st, which will see both the Fed and BoE announce their latest monetary policy and interest rate decisions. The Fed is expected to hike interest rates by 75 basis points, while the expectation for the BoE is 50 basis points. The interest rate differential between the two countries could thus create an arbitrage opportunity for carrying trades; however, market participants should keep in mind the disappointing recent economic data releases from the U.K.

On the technical side, GBPUSD has rebounded from our previously estimated support level of around 1.1371. Short-term resistance for Cable now forms around a previous support level at 1.1463. A super-sized rate hike from the Fed could send Cable well below 1.13. RSI for the pair sits at 40.59, as of writing. On the four-hour chart, GBPUSD currently trades below its 50, 100, and 200-day SMA.

Resistance: 1.1561, 1.1854

Support: 1.1463

XAUUSD (4-Hour Chart)

XAUUSD dropped a combined 2.43% over the course of last week’s trading. The non-yielding metal has continued to face heavy selling pressure as global central banks continue to raise interest rates in order to combat inflation. Rising U.S. 10-year treasury yields have not helped the case for Gold bulls as the yellow metal continues to fare worse against the U.S. Greenback. Market participants should be aware of Wednesday’s Fed interest rate decision, as a super-sized rate hike could cause extreme price volatility for the non-yielding metal.

On the technical side, XAUUSD has found support around the $1660 per ounce region. This level is key for the precious metal as $1660 per ounce is near the price level just prior to March 2020 when Gold prices suffered a more than 8% drop in the following week. RSI for the precious metal sits at 40.66, as of writing. On the four-hour chart, XAUUSD currently trades below its 50, 100, and 200-day SMA.

Resistance: 1740, 1800

Support: 1712, 1695

Economic Data

Four central banks will announce their interest rate decisions this week, with the Fed’s decision and its monetary policy the main focus.

Data releases from the US, Australia, Canada, Germany, the UK, and France will also take place this week.

Australia Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes | 20 September 2022

The Reserve Bank of Australia raised the cash rate by 50bps to 2.35% during its September 2022 meeting in line with market expectations.

The central bank said it aimed to keep inflation from 2% to 3% while maintaining economic growth. It announced that it would continue to raise interest rates gradually but that these hikes would not be performed according to any pre-set timetable, as the data received from incoming economic reports would influence the size and timing of these hikes.

Canada Consumer Price Index | 20 September 2022

According to Statistics Canada, Canada’s consumer price index rose 0.1% in July over the previous month. It was the third consecutive monthly gain and followed a 0.1% increase in June. Analysts predicted that the index would rise by another 0.1%.

US FOMC Statement and Fed Funds Rate | 22 September 2022

In its July 2022 meeting, the Fed raised the target range for the fed funds rate by 75bps to 2.25%-2.5%, the central bank’s fourth consecutive rate hike.

Investors were pricing in a more than 81% chance of another large 75bps hike in Fed funds futures by September.

Bank of Japan Outlook Report | 22 September 2022

The Bank of Japan voted 8-1 to maintain its key short-term interest rate at -0.1% for 10-year bond yields at around 0% during its July meeting.

In addition, the bank cut its 2022 GDP growth forecast to 2.4% from 2.9% in April, citing a slowdown in overseas economies and persistent supply chain issues due to the prolonged war in Ukraine.

Swiss National Bank Policy Rate and Monetary Policy | 22 September 2022

In its June meeting, the Swiss National Bank increased its policy rate by 50bps to -0.25%, surprising financial markets that had expected the central bank to leave its policy rate unchanged.

Analysts expect another 75bps rate hike.

Bank of England Official Bank Rate and Monetary Policy | 22 September 2022

The Bank of England raised its main rate by 50bps to 1.75% during its August 2022 meeting, the sixth consecutive rate hike, pushing borrowing costs to the highest since 2009.

Analysts expect another 50bps rate hike.

French Flash Services PMI | 23 September 2022

In August 2022, France’s Services PMI fell to 51.2 from 53.2 in July. This marked the fourth consecutive month of slowing growth in the services sector and its weakest expansion since April 2021.

Confidence among businesses sank to its lowest level since November 2020. The report cited concerns about the impact of still-elevated inflationary pressures on demand.

German Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI | 23 September 2022

Germany’s Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.1 in August of 2022, indicating that factory activity continued to decline for the second month and hit its lowest level since June 2020.

Flash Services PMI declined to 47.7 in August of 2022, indicating that services activity contracted for the second consecutive month and at the fastest pace since February 2021.

Analysts expect Germany’s Manufacturing PMI to fall to 47.1 and its Flash Services PMI reading to improve to 49.5.

UK Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI | 23 September 2022

The UK Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) fell to 47.3 in August, indicating that factory activity had contracted for the first time since May 2020. The UK Services PMI decreased to 50.9 in August 2022 after recording expansion for 18 months. The slowdown reflected higher inflationary pressures and a cost-of-living squeeze that instilled economic uncertainty and reduced client confidence.

Analysts expect the UK’s Manufacturing PMI to go above 50.2 and the Flash Services PMI to decline below 50.

US Flash Services PMI | 23 September 2022

The August US Services PMI declined to 43.7, its lowest reading since May 2020, from 47.3 in July. This pointed to the sharpest contraction in the services sector since May 2020.

The US Flash Services reading is expected to be better at 45.0.

US stocks fell lower on Friday, remaining under bearish pressure and capped the worst week since the market hit its low for the year in June amid the growing concern over outsized Federal Reserve interest-rate hikes. On the economic data side, the University of Michigan’s (UoM) Consumer Confidence Index improved modestly higher to 59.5 but came in below the market expectation of 60. Moreover, the one-year inflation expectation declined to 4.6% and the five-year inflation expectation edged lower to 2.8% from 2.9%. Therefore, the decline in medium and long-term inflation expectations weighed on the US dollar but failed to lift the equity market higher.

In the Eurozone, further policy tightening measures are expected by the investors amid soaring fears of stagflation, as European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers have admitted that the central bank underestimated the pace of inflation.

The benchmarks, S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average both declined on Friday as the S&P 500 fell for a third day this week amid emerging dip buyers in afternoon trading. The S&P 500 was down 0.7% daily and the Dow Jones Industrial Average also declined with a 0.5% loss for the day. Nine out of eleven sectors in the S&P 500 stayed in negative territory as the Energy and the Industrials sectors are the worst performing among all groups, losing 2.17% and 2.06%, respectively. The Nasdaq 100 meanwhile dropped slightly with a 0.6% loss on Friday and the MSCI World index was down 1.0% for the day.

Main Pairs Movement

The US dollar edged lower on Friday, witnessing fresh selling and retreated to a daily low below the 109.5 mark during the US session following the release of the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment report. The data showed that US consumers remain slightly upbeat regarding the US economy and inflation expectations are also dropping. As for now, the key event ahead is the FOMC meeting on Wednesday as the central bank is expected to raise rates by 75 basis points.

GBP/USD suffered daily losses on Friday with a 0.43% loss as the weaker-than-estimated retail sales data has fueled speculations of a recession. On the UK front, the retail sales in August fell 1.6% MoM and added to recession fears amidst a tightening cycle by the Bank of England. Meanwhile, EUR/USD recovered slightly from weekly lows and touched a three-day top above the 1.003 level amid a reversal of the US dollar across the board. The pair was up almost 0.15% for the day.

Gold staged a solid rebound with a 0.67% gain for the day after climbing to a daily high near the $1680 mark during the US trading session, as the US Consumer Sentiment report showed a decline in inflation expectations and provided support for the safe-haven metal. Meanwhile, WTI Oil advanced slightly with a 0.18% gain for the day and remained near the weekly low around the $85 area as Investors remain concerned that a deeper global economic downturn will dent the fuel demand.

Technical Analysis

EURUSD (4-Hour Chart)

EURUSD continued on its third straight day of rallying after dropping more than 1.5% on the 13^th. The Euro saw bidding at below parity, allowing the Euro-Dollar pair to close out the week above parity. EU CPI came in as expected at 9.1%, climbing 0.2% since July. Remarks from the ECB may have provided a lift for Euro bulls as the central bank admits its underestimation of the pace of inflation. While the ECB continues to ponder over monetary policy, the Fed is set to raise interest rates by 75 basis points and continue their tightening policies. Market participants should be aware of trading during Wednesday’s American trading session as volatility is expected to surge during the release of the FOMC minutes.

On the technical side, EURUSD has successfully defended our previous estimated support level of 0.9956. Short-term resistance for the pair rests slightly above parity at 1.0055. However, should the Fed surprise markets by hiking rates more than 75 basis points, EURUSD could break below the 0.9 price level. RSI for the pair sits at 49.75, as of writing. On the four-hour chart, EURUSD currently trades below its 50, 100, and 200-day SMA.

Resistance:  1.0011, 1.0055

Support: 0.9969, 0.9902

GBPUSD (4-Hour Chart)

Cable closed out the week trading lower, despite seeing a weaker Dollar on the last trading day of the week. The disappointing retail sales figures from the U.K. adds to the uncertainty that the BoE faces at its next interest rate decision meeting. Fears of stagflation in the Eurozone have spilt over to the U.K. as both regions face similar issues of surging energy prices. British Prime Minister Lizz Truss’ plan to cap energy bills for businesses and households could be a step too late as consumption has not slowed significantly compared to the previous month’s print. On the economic docket, Wednesday’s American session will see the FOMC announcing its interest rate decision, while on Thursday the ECB is set to announce its interest rate decision during the late European trading session.

On the technical side, GBPUSD has successfully defended our previous estimated support level of 1.1371. Our previous estimated support level of 1.1463 has changed polarity to a near-term resistance for the pair. RSI for the Cable sits at 34.39, as of writing. On the four-hour chart, GBPUSD currently trades below its 50, 100, and 200-day SMA.

Resistance: 1.1561, 1.1854

Support: 1.1463

XAUUSD (4-Hour Chart)

Gold prices rebounded on the last trading day of the week after slumping more than 1.9% throughout last Thursday’s trading. The brief rebound of Gold was aided by the broadly weaker U.S. Greenback. Stagflation concerns have also weighed on Gold’s recent price movements as the global central bank sees inflation continuing to rise after rounds of quantitative tightening. Next week sees the Fed and BoE announce new rounds of interest rate hikes, which could add further downside risk to the non-yielding yellow metal. Gold as an inflation hedge has continued to be proven untrue as the non-yielding metal fails to attract bidding after falling more than 6% since the beginning of the year. Global geopolitical events have propped up gold prices during the beginning of the year, but prices have entered a long cycle of retreat since then.

On the technical side, Gold has found footing near our previously estimated support level of $1650 per ounce price level. Resistance for the pair now forms near the $1680 per ounce price level. RSI for the yellow metal sits at 36.83, as of writing. On the four-hour chart, XAUUSD currently trades below its 50, 100, and 200-day SMA.

Resistance: 1740, 1800

Support: 1712, 1695

Economic Data

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US stocks declined on Thursday, coming under bearish pressure and fell in a choppy session after the latest batch of economic data did little to dial back expectations for the Federal Reserve’s aggressive hikes move. The US Retail Sales rose by 0.3% in August, which came in better than the market expectation for a no-change and fueled the view that the Federal Reserve will keep tightening policy aggressively. Therefore, the upbeat economic data underpinned the US dollar and acted as a headwind for the equity markets. On top of that, market sentiment also facing downside pressure as Bloomberg ran a piece suggesting that China is likely to witness harder days than it witnessed in 2020.

In the Eurozone, the fears about the energy crisis for the upcoming winter and hawkish comments from the European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers both kept the pessimism higher, meanwhile, investors are blaming the ECB for underestimating the pace of inflation.

The benchmarks, S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average both retreated lower on Thursday as the S&P 500 extended its slide in the US session to close at the lowest level since July 18. The S&P 500 was down 1.1% on a daily basis and the Dow Jones Industrial Average also declined with a 0.6% loss for the day. Nine out of eleven sectors in the S&P 500 stayed in negative territory as the Energy and the Utilities sectors are the worst performing among all groups, losing 2.54% and 2.53%, respectively. The Nasdaq 100 meanwhile dropped the most with a 1.7% loss on Thursday and the MSCI World index was down 1.0% for the day.

Main Pairs Movement
The US dollar advanced higher on Thursday, regaining upside strength and touching a daily high near 109.90 level in the early European session amid the case for ongoing aggressive hikes by the Federal Reserve. In fact, the market’s pricing of the Fed’s 0.75% and 1.0% rate hikes in the next week’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has also risen to 80% and 20%. The market focus now shifts to the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI) for September, which might provide some fresh impulse.

GBP/USD suffered daily losses on Thursday with a 0.62% loss as the upbeat US Retail Sales data released on Thursday has exerted bearish pressure on the cable. On the UK front, the pound might remain under pressure amid the downbeat consensus for the UK Retail Sales data. Meanwhile, EUR/USD is seesawing around parity after mixed ECB official signals and refreshed its daily high above 1.001 level. The pair was up almost 0.18% for the day.

Gold remained on the back foot with a 1.95% loss for the day after dropping to a daily low below the $1,662 mark during the US trading session, as the firmer US dollar and yields undermined the safe-haven metal. Meanwhile, WTI Oil dropped the most in a week with a 4.31% loss for the day and retreated to the $84 area amid demand fears as the US Department of Energy walked back expectations of its plan to restock petroleum reserves.

Technical Analysis

EURUSD (4-Hour Chart)

EURUSD has continued to gain for the second straight trading session. The U.S. initial jobless claims figure came in at 213K, compared to 218K previously. Retail sales figures for the U.S. came in at 0.3%, compared to -0.4% previously. Both key economic data releases attracted fresh bidding for the U.S. Greenback, however, the Dollar seems to have stalled out at its current level. Market participants will now look toward next week’s key FOMC interest rate decision, which is scheduled for Wednesday’s American trading session. According to CME’s FedWatch tool, the possibility of a full percentage interest rate hike by the Fed has risen to around 25%. A super-sized interest rate hike by the Fed could bring unprecedented volatility for EURUSD.

On the technical side, EURUSD has retraced from our previously estimated short-term resistance level of 1.0011 and heading toward our previously estimated support level of 0.9969. Range-bound trading for the pair is expected to continue until the FOMC interest rate decision. RSI for the pair sits at 45.8, as of writing. On the four-hour chart, EURUSD currently trades below its 50, 100, and 200-day SMA.

Resistance:  0.9902, 1.0011, 1.0055

Support: 0.9902, 0.985

GBPUSD (4-Hour Chart)

GBPUSD could not hold on to gains from Wednesday’s trading and reversed course over the 15^th. The stronger Dollar was aided by a better-than-expected jobless claims report and a healthy retail sales figure. Next week sees the BoE and the Fed announcing interest rate decisions for their respective countries. While the FOMC is set on a larger interest rate hike, the BoE is hampered by a weak economy of Britain and a nation that is under extreme price pressure from energy and utilities. In a survey conducted by the BoE, the central bank showed a 4.9% climb in inflation for the year ahead. Trading volume for Cable could be relatively thin ahead of the two key interest rate decisions, and Cable trading should stay rather range-bound before the key decisions arrive.

On the technical side, GBPUSD has continued to trend closer to our previously estimated support level of 1.1463; however, if the Fed decides to implement a full percentage point interest rate hike next week, Cable could break below this key support level. RSI for the pair sits at 38.4, as of writing. On the four-hour chart, GBPUSD currently trades below its 50, 100, and 200-day SMA.

Resistance: 1.1561, 1.1854

Support: 1.1463

XAUUSD (4-Hour Chart)

Gold plummeted over the course of Thursday’s trading. The drop for Gold accelerated as the American trading session began. The non-yielding metal dropped as low as $1,660 per ounce at the lowest point. The sharp drop affirms our bearish view on the non-yielding asset. Ahead of key interest rate decisions from the Fed and the BoE, market participants have rotated out of the yellow metal. The better-than-expected initial jobless claims report and retail sales figures from the U.S. only added further selling pressure for the yellow metal. Downbeat equity market performance, however, allowed Gold to limit some of the downsides. The rise in U.S. short-term treasury yields continues to point to a bearish trajectory for the non-yielding metal.

On the technical side, XAUUSD has completely broken below our previously estimated support level of $1,695 per ounce and is heading toward the lower level of support at $1,650 per ounce. RSI for the yellow metal sits at 22.935, as of writing. On the four-hour chart, XAUUSD currently trades below its 50, 100, and 200-day SMA.

Resistance: 1740, 1800

Support: 1712, 1695

Economic Data