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尊敬的用户：
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为了因应近期日渐波动的股票市场风险， VT Markets 将于2023 年11月 13日调整 MT5股票产品的部份交易设置，详请参考如下：
1. 收盘前30分钟和开市后30分钟内开立新仓位的杠杆为1:5，一旦这些仓位不在前述提到的时间范围内，杠杆将恢复为原先1:20，且不会再次更动为1 :5
2. 适用股票产品：欧股、英股、港股、美股
3. 适用交易平台：MT5
注意：以上数据仅供参考，实际执行数据有可能会有变动，具体请依据MT5软件为准。
温馨提醒：
1. 本次调整除杠杆之外，其他所有交易细则维持不变
2. 账户内预付款比例可能因此次调整受到影响，请务必在调整前确保账户中保留足够持有仓位的资金。
3. 上述时间为系统时间 GMT+8。
如您有任何疑问，我们的团队将十分乐意为您解答。
请留言或发邮件至 [email protected] 或联系在线客服。
On Monday, the stock market continued its positive momentum, with the Nasdaq Composite achieving its longest winning streak since January. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones also edged up, with the market pausing to digest the previous week’s robust rally. Investors are eagerly awaiting the Federal Reserve’s announcements and corporate earnings reports for potential bullish catalysts. Additionally, the currency market saw some notable movements, with the EUR/USD, USD/JPY, and other currencies responding to Treasury yields and economic data. As November traditionally performs well for the stock market, investors are keeping a close watch on market developments and central bank policies.
On Monday, the stock market continued its positive momentum, building on last week’s strong rally. The Nasdaq Composite recorded its longest winning streak since January, rising by 0.3% to close at 13,518.78, while the S&P 500 edged up by 0.18% to finish at 4,365.98. The Dow Jones Industrial Average also inched up 0.1% to settle at 34,095.86. According to Adam Sarhan, CEO of 50 Park Investments, the market appeared to be taking a pause to digest the previous week’s robust rally and was waiting for the next bullish catalyst, which could come from the Federal Reserve’s announcements or corporate earnings reports. Notably, Nvidia saw a 1.7% increase in its stock price due to optimism from Bank of America ahead of its earnings report, while Bumble’s shares dropped 4.4% following the announcement that its CEO would step down in January. Meanwhile, SolarEdge Technologies saw a 5.1% decline after a downgrade from Wells Fargo. Bond yields reversed their trend from the previous week, with the 10-year Treasury yield rising by 9 basis points to approximately 4.653%.
The stock market’s recent performance marked the best week of 2023, with the Dow recording its largest weekly gain since October 2022, and the S&P and Nasdaq achieving their best weekly results since November 2022. A softer monthly jobs report had driven bond yields lower, providing support to equities. As the week progressed, there was a lighter schedule for economic data and company earnings, but seasonal tailwinds were expected to bolster the stock market’s recovery. November traditionally performs well for the S&P, and it marks the beginning of the best six-month return period for the market since 1950. The average return for the S&P has been 7% from November through April during this period. Earnings season was also winding down, with over 400 S&P companies having already reported their quarterly financial results. Investors were looking forward to updates from companies such as Walt Disney, Wynn, MGM Resorts, and Occidental Petroleum. Additionally, market participants were closely watching Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s scheduled speeches, hoping for insights into the potential direction of the central bank’s monetary policy, given the recent trend of lower bond yields.
Data by Bloomberg
On Monday, the overall market showed a slight gain of 0.18%. Among the sectors, Information Technology and Health Care performed the best, with gains of 0.78% and 0.66%, respectively. The Consumer Discretionary and Consumer Staples sectors also saw modest increases of 0.18% and 0.17%. On the other hand, the Energy and Real Estate sectors faced significant declines, dropping by 1.19% and 1.41%, respectively. The Industrials and Utilities sectors experienced losses of 0.26% and 0.28%, while Financials and Materials both declined by 0.39% and 0.51%.
In the aftermath of Friday’s disappointing U.S. jobs data release, the U.S. dollar index remained relatively stable on Monday. Modest gains in the Euro to U.S. dollar (EUR/USD) and the British pound, however, were countered by gains in the U.S. dollar to Japanese yen (USD/JPY) pairs, largely driven by the rebound in Treasury yields. Much of the previous week’s decline in Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar was attributed to speculative short positions in the Treasury market being squeezed. This squeeze followed relief over the Treasury refunding announcement, diminishing concerns of imminent Federal Reserve interest rate hikes, and was compounded by the soft employment and ISM non-manufacturing reports released on Friday. As Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar appear to be less vulnerable to further losses, market focus turns to the upcoming $112 billion Treasury refund scheduled for Tuesday to Thursday, as well as speeches by Federal Reserve officials later in the week, which are expected to caution against overpricing substantial rate cuts in 2024. The U.S. economic calendar for the week is relatively light, with the next significant data point being the November 14th Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. The CPI is anticipated to show modest growth at 0.1% and 0.3% in both overall and core month-on-month figures, which could reinforce the current market expectations for a rate cut by June.
The currency market experienced some notable movements on Monday, with the EUR/USD reaching a high of 1.0756 but facing resistance from Fibonacci levels and the limited continuation of last week’s yield spread between German bunds and U.S. Treasuries. The convergence of the 100-day and 200-day moving averages at 1.0805-6 and the daily cloud top at 1.0799 on Tuesday represent key technical levels to watch. While Friday’s surge above the 55-day moving average was seen as bullish, the U.S. dollar to Japanese yen (USD/JPY) pair rose by 0.33%, fueled by the rebound in Treasury yields, leaving Japanese government bond (JGB) yields relatively unchanged. The trajectory of Treasury yields this week, influenced by supply dynamics and Federal Reserve comments, is a pivotal factor for the USD/JPY pair. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan’s potential shift away from yield curve control and negative interest rates may receive some guidance from Japan’s wage data scheduled for Tuesday. Higher long-term JGB yields could make holding foreign exchange-hedged Treasury positions less attractive, thereby supporting the Japanese yen. Notably, the USD/JPY’s recent decline from its 2023 peak to last year’s 32-year high at 151.74/94 raises concerns about a significant double-top reversal in the making. Sterling experienced a slight decline on Monday after relinquishing early gains, with its movement capped by the 200-day moving average. On the other hand, higher-beta currencies like the Australian dollar and the Chinese yuan gained 0.3% and 0.42%, respectively.
EUR/USD Faces Headwinds as USD Index Rebounds Amid Uncertainty Over Fed’s Rate-Hike Path
The EUR/USD pair encounters resistance as the USD Index (DXY) rebounds from an eight-week low, fueled by mixed signals from Federal Reserve officials regarding future rate hikes. This shift led to an uptick in US Treasury bond yields and USD short covering. The uncertainty surrounding the Fed’s next policy move has caused investors to speculate that the rate-hiking cycle may be approaching its end, with market pricing indicating a higher chance of a rate cut in June 2024. All eyes are now on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s upcoming appearances for further guidance.
According to technical analysis, the EUR/USD moved slightly lower on Monday, easing from the upper band of the Bollinger Bands. Currently, the EUR/USD is trading between the upper and middle band, indicating the potential for a slight lower movement to reach the middle band. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 60, signaling that the EUR/USD is back in neutral bias.
Resistance: 1.0765, 1.0835
Support: 1.0693, 1.0615
XAU/USD Softens as Positive Market Sentiment Eases Safety Demand
At the beginning of the week, a more optimistic market sentiment diminished the appeal of safe-haven assets, causing Gold (XAU/USD) to trade at around $1,983 per troy ounce with a softer tone. This decline was tempered by the relative absence of the US Dollar in investors’ focus. Despite limited activity in stock markets due to a lack of significant news, Wall Street’s major indexes extended their gains from Friday. This was supported by government bonds and equities, as the United States Nonfarm Payrolls Report and the Federal Reserve’s announcement signaled the end of the monetary tightening cycle. Central banks worldwide also expressed concerns about the impact of tightening on economic growth rather than current inflation levels, contributing to the overall market stability. While this week lacks significant economic events, the upcoming one is expected to bring updates on inflation from major economies, including the United States.
According to technical analysis, XAU/USD moves lower on Monday and is able to reach the lower band of the Bollinger Bands. Presently, the price of gold is moving near the lower band, creating a possibility to push lower. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 38, indicating a slight bearish bias for the XAU/USD pair.
Resistance: $1,992, $2,007
Support: $1,962, $1,945
| Currency | Data | Time (GMT + 8) | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| AUD | Cash Rate | 11:30 | 4.35% |
| AUD | RBA Rate Statement | 11:30 |
Significant economic events are expected to impact the forex market this week. Traders should closely monitor the Reserve Bank of Australia’s rate statement and the UK’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) release. These indicators could substantially sway market conditions, underscoring the importance of staying abreast of recent developments to ensure a successful trading week.
Here are some notable highlights for the week:
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) considered raising its cash rate in October 2023 but chose to maintain it at 4.1% for the fourth consecutive month.
Analysts anticipate the central bank will increase its cash rate to 4.35% at its next meeting on 7 November.
Inflation expectations in New Zealand rose to 2.83% in Q3 2023, up from 2.79% in Q2 2023.
The data for Q4 2023 is scheduled to be released on 8 November, with analysts forecasting a decline to 2.6%.
The British economy expanded by 0.2% month-over-month in August 2023, following a contraction of 0.6% in July.
The figures for September are due to be released on 10 November, with analysts predicting a 0.1% growth in the country’s GDP.
The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index for the US was revised upward to 63.8 in October 2023 from the preliminary estimate of 63.
Analysts anticipate the next report will reflect a sentiment index of 65.
尊敬的用户：
您好！ VT Markets 致力于为客户提供更快速且稳定的交易环境，我们将于周末进行服务器 (MT4/MT5) 升级维护。
维护时段：
第一阶段维护 : 2023 年 11 月 04 日 (星期六) 07:00 至 08:00
第二阶段维护 : 2023 年 11 月 05 日 (星期日) 12:00 至 19:00
上述时段采用 GMT+8
维护期间请您务必留意下列事项：
1. 服务器报价将会暂停，客户将无法建立新仓位或是关闭既有持仓。
2. 维护前后的市场价格可能发生跳空，在跳空范围内的挂单或止损/止盈设置将在维护结束后的市场价格成交。
3. 具体维护完毕与开盘时间请依据MT4/MT5软件为准。
4. 请注意，第二阶段维护期间后系统时间将从(GMT+3) 变成 (GMT+2)。
望您谅解因此次升级维护为您所带来的不便，我们将继续为您提供更优质的服务。
如您有任何疑问，我们的团队将十分乐意为您解答。
请留言或发邮件至 [email protected] 或联系在线客服。
In a remarkable Thursday rally, stocks saw a surge as Treasury yields dropped, sparking investor speculation that the Federal Reserve may pause its rate hikes for the remainder of 2023. The Dow Jones Industrial Average posted its strongest performance since June, the S&P 500 marked its best day since April, and the Nasdaq Composite had its best session since July. All 11 S&P 500 sectors ended in positive territory, with energy and real estate leading the way. Meanwhile, the US dollar faced mixed performance in the currency market, retreating initially but recovering as Treasury yields rebounded, amid a backdrop of changing central bank signals. Despite the risk-on sentiment, market caution remained as key economic reports were on the horizon.
Stocks surged on Thursday as Treasury yields dropped, as investors speculated that the Federal Reserve might halt rate hikes for the rest of 2023. The Dow Jones Industrial Average recorded its strongest performance since June, rising 564.5 points or 1.7% to close at 33,839.08. Similarly, the S&P 500 had its best day since April, gaining 1.89% and settling at 4,317.78, marking its first back-to-back days of over 1% gains since February. The Nasdaq Composite also posted its best session since July, climbing 1.78% to close at 13,294.19. On a weekly basis, the S&P 500 was up approximately 4.9%, and the Dow had gained 4.4%, while the Nasdaq was on track for a more than 5% increase. The rally was widespread, with all 11 S&P 500 sectors ending in positive territory, led by energy and real estate, which both rose 3.1%.
The decline in bond yields was notable, with the 10-year Treasury yield falling by approximately 12 basis points to 4.668%, following its recent surge above 5%. This drop in yields was influenced by data showing easing inflation and a slowing labor market. Labor costs unexpectedly decreased in the third quarter, and weekly jobless claims ticked higher to 217,000. These developments added to investor confidence that the Federal Reserve might have finished its rate hikes. The Fed’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged for the second consecutive time on Wednesday had already triggered a substantial rally in the Dow, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite also ending up more than 1%.
Data by Bloomberg
On Thursday, across various sectors, the stock market experienced a 1.89% increase. The energy and Real Estate sectors showed the strongest performance with gains of 3.11% and 3.09% respectively. Following closely, the Financials and Consumer Discretionary sectors both saw increases of 2.40%. Industrials and Materials sectors rose by 2.05% and 1.92%, while Utilities and Information Technology posted gains of 1.89% and 1.71%. Health Care and Consumer Staples sectors also advanced, albeit at a slower rate, recording increases of 1.57% and 1.26%. Lastly, the Communication Services sector showed the smallest increase at 0.91%.
In the currency market update, the US dollar faced mixed performance as it retreated on Thursday due to an unexpected drop in the US unit and a slight increase in jobless claims. However, the dollar managed to recover from its lows as EUR/USD encountered resistance, and Treasury yields rebounded, leading to a yield curve inversion. Despite a 0.5% increase in EUR/USD during afternoon trading, the currency pair was unable to surpass the 55-day moving average, which had previously capped October’s highs. To confirm that the rebound high at 1.0695 in October was not just part of an ABC correction, a close above the moving average and the daily cloud base at 1.0659/64 was necessary.
The broader market sentiment remained risk-on, with yields increasing and the safe-haven appeal of the US dollar waning as the Bank of England (BoE) and the Federal Reserve signaled that their rate hikes were likely completed. Additionally, the European Central Bank (ECB) expressed confidence in the current state of interest rates, contributing to the dollar’s decline. Despite a recessionary reading in the eurozone, the ECB’s chief economist saw a good case for a soft landing. Sterling gained 0.4% against the weakening US dollar, while USD/JPY fell by 0.34%. The Australian and Canadian dollars rose by 0.54% and 0.76%, respectively, driven by risk-on sentiment. However, with key jobs and ISM reports scheduled for Friday, risks were seen rising in the market, and investors remained cautious about the dollar’s future performance.
EUR/USD Faces Headwinds as Economic Data Paints Gloomy Picture
On Thursday, the US saw an increase in weekly Initial Jobless Claims, reaching the highest level in seven weeks, while the Unit Labor Cost dropped significantly. In the Eurozone, the Manufacturing PMI decreased, signaling a contraction in activity, with several key nations facing economic challenges. These factors could limit the Euro’s strength and pose challenges for the EUR/USD pair. Upcoming data releases, including the Eurozone Unemployment rate and US employment figures, will be closely watched, providing clarity for the direction of the currency pair.
According to technical analysis, the EUR/USD moves higher on Wednesday, approaching the upper band of the Bollinger Bands then goes back lower. Currently, the EUR/USD is trading just above the middle band, indicating the potential for a slightly lower movement to reach the middle band. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 55, signaling that the EUR/USD is in neutral bias.
Resistance: 1.0645, 1.0705
Support: 1.0592, 1.0526
XAU/USD Faces Pressure from China’s Economic Woes as Traders Eye US Jobs Data for Direction
Gold (XAU/USD) is grappling with the potential impact of downbeat Chinese economic data, considering China’s status as the world’s leading gold producer and consumer. Concerns arise as the Caixin Manufacturing PMI for October fell below expectations, raising doubts about the nation’s economic recovery. On Friday, all eyes will be on the US Nonfarm Payrolls data, Unemployment rate, and Average Hourly Earnings for October, which will guide traders in their search for trading opportunities within the gold market.
According to technical analysis, XAU/USD is moving in consolidation on Thursday and is able to reach the middle band of the Bollinger Bands. Presently, the price of gold is consolidating near the middle band, creating a possibility to push back lower. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 47, indicating a neutral bias for the XAU/USD pair.
Resistance: $1,992, $2,007
Support: $1,977, $1,962
| Currency | Data | Time (GMT + 8) | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| CAD | Employment Change | 20:30 | 25.7K |
| CAD | Unemployment Rate | 20:30 | 5.6% |
| USD | Average Hourly Earnings m/m | 20:30 | 0.3% |
| USD | Non-Farm Employment Change | 20:30 | 178K |
| USD | Unemployment Rate | 20:30 | 3.8% |
| USD | ISM Services PMI | 22:00 | 53.0 |
On Wednesday, US stocks rebounded, led by technology stocks, as the Federal Reserve chose to maintain interest rates, easing concerns of an imminent rate hike. The Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite all posted gains, with technology stocks like AMD, Micron Technology, and Nvidia leading the charge. The Federal Reserve’s decision also led to a drop in Treasury yields and boosted equity markets. The US dollar strengthened despite lower yields, supported by Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s stance against rate cuts and mixed economic data. The currency market saw the USD/JPY pair decline, the euro (EUR/USD) struggle, the British pound (GBP) face challenges, and the Australian dollar (Aussie) rise. Looking ahead, economic data and central bank meetings will continue to shape market dynamics.
Stocks rebounded on Wednesday, following a challenging three-month period, after the Federal Reserve decided to keep interest rates unchanged for the second consecutive time, leading investors to believe the central bank would maintain its current stance for the remainder of the year. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 221.71 points (0.67%) to 33,274.58, the S&P 500 increased by 1.05% to 4,237.86, briefly crossing its 200-day moving average, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.64% to reach 13,061.47. Information technology stocks were the standout performers, with gains of approximately 2%. Notable semiconductor companies like Advanced Micro Devices and Micron Technology saw significant increases of 9.7% and 3.8%, respectively. Nvidia shares also rose by more than 3%.
The Federal Reserve decided to maintain rates in the range of 5.25% to 5.5%, in line with expectations. The central bank reported that economic activity had expanded strongly in the third quarter, suggesting robust growth. While the recent rise in yields has reduced the likelihood of a rate hike in December, Fed Chair Jerome Powell did not completely rule out the possibility, indicating that it may not be difficult to raise rates after pausing for two meetings. Bond yields fell following the rate decision and the Treasury’s bond sale plans, which provided a boost to equities. The 10-year Treasury yield dropped below 4.8% after reaching above 5% in October, which had caused concerns in the markets.
Data by Bloomberg
On Tuesday, the overall market saw a positive trend, with all sectors collectively rising by 1.05%. Among the top-performing sectors, Information Technology led the way with a substantial increase of 2.08%, followed by Communication Services at 1.84% and Consumer Discretionary at 1.43%. Meanwhile, Consumer Staples and Energy were the only sectors that experienced declines, with decreases of -0.06% and -0.33%, respectively. The rest of the sectors showed modest gains, contributing to the overall positive market performance.
In the latest currency market updates, the US dollar experienced a 0.39% increase, despite a notable drop in Treasury yields. This surge came after the Federal Reserve’s decision to maintain its policy of keeping interest rates high for an extended period. Fed Chair Jerome Powell also clarified that there had been no discussions about rate cuts at this point. Prior to the Fed’s statement, the US dollar had seen a slightly stronger performance. However, it encountered resistance due to the pullback in USD/JPY and dovish reactions to disappointing US economic data, as well as the Treasury refunding announcement, which had pushed Treasury yields lower. Notably, ADP reported only 113k job additions, falling short of the forecasted 150k, and the combined readings for September and October were the weakest since January 2021. The ISM manufacturing data also unexpectedly slipped further into contraction, possibly influenced by the earlier UAW strike, which has since been resolved. On a positive note, the JOLTS report revealed an unexpected tightening of the labor market, with an increase in job openings and a decrease in layoffs to a 9-month low. These developments, combined with Tuesday’s data from the NY Fed’s MCTI, indicating persistent inflation, raised questions about whether the drop in Treasury yields was an overreaction, especially considering the Treasury’s refunding announcement showed a slower pace of issuance increases.
In the context of global currency dynamics, the USD/JPY pair experienced a 0.47% decline following a post-BoJ meeting surge that fell short of the 32-year peak reached in 2022 due to Japanese intervention warnings. The euro (EUR/USD) saw a 0.3% decrease, with the lower 10-day Bolli and last week’s low putting pressure on it, regardless of the fall in Treasury yields. This decline was triggered by downbeat Chinese manufacturing data, which raised concerns for the eurozone, particularly Germany, given its reliance on Chinese business. The British pound (GBP) also fell by 0.16%, remaining close to October’s lows as policymakers faced a dilemma ahead of the Bank of England (BoE) meeting. The BoE is grappling with the challenge of managing the UK’s high inflation rate of 6.7% alongside indications of economic stress. On a positive note, the Australian dollar (Aussie) saw a 0.7% rise, benefiting from higher equities. Looking ahead, Thursday is expected to bring additional economic data, including Challenger layoffs, jobless claims, unit labor costs, and durable orders, with Friday’s jobs data and ISM non-manufacturing figures on the horizon. These factors collectively shaped the currency market’s landscape, with the US dollar’s resilience against various headwinds being a notable highlight.
EUR/USD Faces Uncertain Outlook as ECB Maintains Rates and Eurozone Economic Indicators Signal Recession Risks
The European Central Bank (ECB) opted to keep interest rates steady last week, but expectations of rate cuts in Q2 next year persist due to disinflationary pressures resulting from sluggish GDP growth and concerning PMI data. In addition, recent economic indicators in the Eurozone, such as the preliminary HICP and GDP figures, painted a challenging picture with lower-than-expected readings, raising concerns about the possibility of a recession. Traders are keeping an eye on upcoming data releases and ECB communications, while the US Nonfarm Payrolls report on Friday is poised to influence the direction of the EUR/USD pair, with an estimated 180K job additions in October.
According to technical analysis, the EUR/USD moves higher on Wednesday, approaching the middle band of the Bollinger Bands. Currently, the EUR/USD is trading above the middle band, indicating the potential for a slightly higher movement to reach the upper band. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 54, signaling that the EUR/USD is in neutral bias.
Resistance: 1.0616, 1.0705
Support: 1.0500, 1.0405
XAU/USD Faces Mixed Signals Amid Weaker Chinese Data and Upcoming US Employment Figures
In the gold market, the weaker Chinese economic data poses a potential challenge, as the world’s largest gold producer and consumer experiences a drop in manufacturing PMI. However, the focus is now shifting to the upcoming US employment data, with initial jobless claims expected to rise and the Nonfarm Payrolls report on Friday projected to add jobs in October. These events hold the key to determining the direction of gold prices in the near term.
According to technical analysis, XAU/USD is moving in consolidation on Wednesday and was able to reach the narrow lower band of the Bollinger Bands. Presently, the price of gold is consolidating near the middle band, creating a possibility to push back lower. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 50, indicating a neutral bias for the XAU/USD pair.
Resistance: $1,992, $2,007
Support: $1,977, $1,962
| Currency | Data | Time (GMT + 8) | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| CHF | CPI m/m | 15:30 | 0.1% |
| GBP | BOE Monetary Policy Report | 20:00 | |
| GBP | Monetary Policy Summary | 20:00 | |
| GBP | MPC Official Bank Rate Votes | 20:00 | 2-0-7 |
| GBP | Official Bank Rate | 20:00 | 5.25% |
| USD | Unemployment Claims | 20:30 | 210K |
In the stock market, October witnessed surging interest rates, leading to a challenging month for investors, but there was a modest recovery on Tuesday as major indices rebounded. Real estate and financial sectors outperformed, while some tech giants faced declines. Despite recent gains, it marked the third consecutive losing month for major stock indices, driven by rising Treasury yields. The currency market saw the US dollar strengthen, particularly against the yen, influenced by central bank policies and economic data. As the markets watch for signals from the Federal Reserve and other central banks, investors remain cautious yet hopeful for a year-end rally, with an eye on currency pairs, such as USD/JPY and EUR/USD.
In the stock market, October was marked by surging interest rates, leading to a challenging month for investors. However, on Tuesday, there was a modest recovery as the major indices rebounded. The S&P 500 climbed 0.65% to 4,193.80, and the Nasdaq Composite added 0.48% to 12,851.24, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.38% to 33,052.87. Notably, real estate and financial sectors outperformed, with gains of 2% and 1.1%, respectively, while some mega-cap tech stocks, such as Alphabet and Meta Platforms, faced declines. The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) dropped below its long-term average, indicating reduced market uncertainty. Earnings reports also played a role in market movements, with Caterpillar’s stock sliding more than 6% due to a modest fourth-quarter revenue outlook, and JetBlue shares dropping over 10% as the airline’s third-quarter results fell short of expectations.
Despite the recent gains, October marked the third consecutive losing month for major stock indices. The Dow and S&P 500 fell 1.4% and 2.2%, respectively, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq declined by 2.8%. These losses were driven by a rapid increase in Treasury yields, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield reaching a significant 5% level, last seen in 2007. Market participants attribute this rise to concerns that the Federal Reserve may maintain higher interest rates for an extended period. The Fed’s upcoming decision on interest rates is eagerly anticipated, with expectations that the central bank will likely keep rates unchanged. Investors are looking for signals of a more dovish stance from the Fed to relieve downward pressure on rates and support a sustainable stock market rebound. Additionally, traders are hopeful for seasonal tailwinds in November, historically a strong month for markets, but they believe that a peak in bond yields will be necessary for a year-end rally.
Data by Bloomberg
On Tuesday, the overall market showed a positive trend, with all sectors collectively gaining 0.65%. Among the sectors, Real Estate led the way with an impressive increase of 2.04%, followed by Financials at 1.09% and Utilities at 0.86%. Other sectors, such as Industrials, Consumer Discretionary, and Health Care, also experienced gains ranging from 0.63% to 0.77%. However, Information Technology, Materials, Consumer Staples, Energy, and Communication Services had more modest increases, ranging from 0.18% to 0.56%.
In recent currency market developments, the US dollar demonstrated strength as the dollar index saw a 0.6% increase, primarily driven by a remarkable 1.6% surge in USD/JPY, nearing its 2022 peak. This surge was attributed to the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) shift away from ultra-easy monetary policies, perceived by many as too little and too late in comparison to substantial rate hikes by other major central banks worldwide. Additionally, the US dollar gained broader traction following positive economic data from the United States. The U.S. employment cost index, home prices, and consumer confidence all exceeded expectations, leading to a 7-basis-point rise in 2-year Treasury yields, a 4-basis-point increase on the day. Conversely, the euro lost ground against the US dollar, falling 0.4%, as euro zone inflation and GDP figures came in slightly weaker than forecasts. This decline was further exacerbated by a narrowing of 2-year bund-Treasury yield spreads. Looking ahead, the currency market is keeping a watchful eye on developments like the ECB’s potential rate cuts, as well as any hints of changes in the Federal Reserve’s stance, which could impact the future direction of the EUR/USD pair.
In particular, USD/JPY made a remarkable 1.66% jump, reaching new highs for 2023 at 151.715, approaching the 32-year peak from October 21, 2022, at 151.94. This upward momentum raised concerns of potential pullback risks, particularly due to the narrowing of Treasury-JGB yield spreads as USD/JPY hit new highs. Traders may consider taking profits if the currency pair fails to close above the 2022 high. However, an unobstructed breakout could lead to a potential target at 155.19, representing the 161.8% Fibonacci retracement off the base from 2023 and exacerbating Japan’s imported inflation concerns. Meanwhile, USD/CAD rose by 0.4% to reach new highs for 2023, primarily influenced by recessionary GDP data. The Australian dollar fell by 0.6%, partially due to disappointing factory data from China, which also pushed USD/CNH close to October’s highs. Finally, the global market experienced lower prices for oil and copper, reflecting concerns about global economic growth risks. These factors collectively indicate an evolving landscape in the currency market, with central bank policies, economic data, and geopolitical factors playing significant roles in shaping the future direction of major currency pairs.
EUR/USD Retreats as Eurozone Data Misses Expectations, Eyes Turn to FOMC Meeting and US Employment Figures
The EUR/USD pair experienced a shift as it initially reached weekly highs before turning downward, driven by a stronger US Dollar in anticipation of US employment data and the FOMC meeting. Disappointing inflation and growth figures from the Eurozone, along with an impending ECB hold in December, contrasted with mixed US data on Tuesday. The focus now turns to the upcoming FOMC meeting and US employment reports, with the US Dollar’s support stemming from solid fundamentals, while market sentiment helps keep the EUR/USD pair away from recent lows.
According to technical analysis, the EUR/USD moves lower on Tuesday, approaching the middle band of the Bollinger Bands. Currently, the EUR/USD is trading below the middle band, indicating the potential for a slightly lower movement. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 46, signaling that the EUR/USD is in neutral bias.
Resistance: 1.0616, 1.0705
Support: 1.0500, 1.0405
XAU/USD Fluctuates Amidst Mixed Economic Data and USD Demand Ahead of Fed Announcement
In the first half of the day, the XAU/USD saw a surge, reaching $2,007.91 per troy ounce, buoyed by optimism in European financial markets due to softer Euro Zone inflation figures. However, the American session witnessed a downturn as dismal US data spurred demand for the US Dollar. The US Consumer Confidence index dipped slightly in October, and Wall Street’s early gains were erased, contributing to USD strength. The Bank of Japan’s conservative stance on yield-curve control also impacted the currency market. Now, market participants await the US Federal Reserve’s November meeting with uncertainties surrounding the end of the tightening cycle.
According to technical analysis, XAU/USD is moving lower on Monday and able to reach the narrow lower band of the Bollinger Bands. Presently, the price of gold is consolidating near the lower band, creating a possibility to push lower and create a wider band. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 42, indicating a neutral bias for the XAU/USD pair.
Resistance: $1,992, $2,007
Support: $1,977, $1,962
| Currency | Data | Time (GMT + 8) | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| USD | ADP Non-Farm Employment Change | 20:15 | 149K |
| USD | ISM Manufacturing PMI | 22:00 | 49.0 |
| USD | JOLTS Job Openings | 22:00 | 9.34M |
On Monday, the stock market experienced a significant rally, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average surging by over 500 points, pulling itself out of correction territory, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite also made substantial gains. The positive sentiment was attributed to the anticipation of the Federal Reserve’s rate decision and hopes of a pause in rate hikes. The US dollar declined as investors moved away from safe-haven assets. In the currency market, the Euro appreciated, while the British pound remained above recent lows, and the Australian dollar saw a notable rise. Market participants are closely watching central bank meetings and economic data releases that will shape currency market dynamics in the coming days.
Stocks rallied on Monday, with the S&P 500 making significant gains and ending the day out of corrected territory. The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged by 511.37 points, or 1.58%, to reach 32,928.96, marking its best day since June 2. The S&P 500 also performed well, jumping 1.2% to 4,166.82, its best performance since late August. The Nasdaq Composite rose by 1.16% to 12,789.48. Communication services were the top-performing S&P 500 sector, gaining over 2%, with mega-cap tech stocks like Amazon and Meta Platforms rising by 3.9% and 2%, respectively. These gains followed a recent dip in the S&P 500 into correction territory, shedding 2.5% for the week, and it was down more than 10% from its 2023 closing high. The positive market sentiment on Monday was attributed to a lack of new negative developments over the weekend and a perception that bad news might have already been priced into the market.
Investors were eagerly anticipating the upcoming Federal Reserve rate decision, set for Wednesday, where it was widely expected that the central bank would maintain its benchmark interest rate at the current level. With surging interest rates being a key factor behind the recent market correction, investors hoped that the Fed would signal a pause in its rate-hiking cycle. This pause could provide some relief and potentially halt the rapid rise in Treasury yields. The 10-year Treasury yield, which had previously spiked above 5%, traded around 4.89% on Monday. Additionally, investors were looking forward to the October jobs report on Friday, with hopes that any signs of a slowing labor market could persuade the Fed to keep interest rates on hold for the remainder of the year. Furthermore, Apple was set to report its earnings on Thursday, and the stock was in correction territory, down 14% from its 52-week high. Overall, the market appeared to be responding positively to the potential for stability and improved economic conditions.
Data by Bloomberg
On Monday, the overall market showed a positive trend with a gain of 1.20%. Among the sectors, Communication Services saw the highest increase at 2.06%, followed by Financials at 1.71%, and Consumer Staples at 1.55%. The sectors of Energy and Real Estate had the lowest gains at 0.31%, while Health Care and Utilities also saw relatively modest increases at 0.55% and 0.68%, respectively.
In the currency market, the US dollar experienced a 0.4% decline, driven by a resurgence in risk sentiment that prompted investors to move away from the safe-haven US currency. This decrease in the dollar index occurred as market participants prepared for upcoming central bank meetings, including those of the Bank of Japan (BoJ), the Federal Reserve (Fed), and the Bank of England (BoE). Additionally, traders were bracing for a barrage of critical economic data releases, with the eagerly awaited US employment report scheduled for Friday. The most intriguing event in this lineup is the BoJ’s announcement, particularly if it entails an increase in the current 1% yield cap on 10-year Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) and a potential shift away from aggressive JGB purchases. Such a move, if implemented, could reduce the need for aggressive quantitative easing (QE) and provide support to the Japanese yen. If the USD/JPY exchange rate breaches a key support level at 149.04, it could test the lows observed during the flash-crash on October 3, ranging from 150.165 to 147.30. Market participants are also keenly watching for the Ministry of Finance (MoF) intervention report on Tuesday to ascertain if the MoF was responsible for the sudden dive in the yen on October 3. It’s noteworthy that, among major central banks like the Fed, European Central Bank (ECB), and BoE, the BoJ is currently considered the most likely to raise interest rates next year, as it does not face expectations of cutting rates in 2024.
Meanwhile, in other currency movements, the Euro (EUR) appreciated by 0.47% against the US dollar, reaching a high of 1.0625. This upward correction followed a period of oversold conditions in October and will need to overcome the 55-day moving average at 1.0675, which had previously capped the highs in the last week of October. The German economy, however, faced a setback with a 0.1% contraction in Q3 compared to Q2, defying expectations of a 0.3% drop. Moreover, October’s inflation rate in the Eurozone came in at 3.0% year-on-year, slightly below the anticipated 3.3% and a decrease from the 4.3% rate recorded in September.
In the British pound (GBP) market, the sterling appreciated by 0.3%, remaining above the lows observed in October but staying below the downtrend line from July. This movement occurred against the backdrop of a mostly discouraging streak of economic data. The Australian dollar (AUD) also witnessed a notable 0.67% rise, benefiting from strong retail sales and a broader reduction in US dollar long positions amid decreasing risk aversion.
Looking ahead, the market’s attention is focused on key data releases, including euro zone inflation and GDP figures, followed by US data on the Employment Cost Index (ECI), home prices, and consumer confidence. Additionally, the schedule includes reports on Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) data, the ADP employment report, ISM manufacturing data, and the JOLTS report, leading up to the post-meeting press conference by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Wednesday. These developments are expected to further shape the dynamics in the currency market in the coming days.
EUR/USD Climbs Above 1.0600 as Dollar Weakens Ahead of FOMC Meeting and Key Data
The EUR/USD pair surged above 1.0600 during the American session, driven by a weakened US Dollar in anticipation of the upcoming FOMC meeting and crucial jobs data. The Euro received additional support from positive Eurozone economic data. Notably, Germany’s economic contraction in the third quarter was less severe than anticipated, and inflation rates in October eased below expectations. These factors support the expectation that the European Central Bank (ECB) will maintain its current stance. While the Federal Reserve (Fed) is set to keep rates unchanged, strong economic performance in the US allows for potential rate hikes in the future. Key US data releases throughout the week will influence the US Dollar’s momentum.
According to technical analysis, the EUR/USD moved higher on Monday, approaching the upper band of the Bollinger Bands. Currently, the EUR/USD is trading around the upper band, indicating the potential for a slightly lower movement. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 58, signaling that the EUR/USD is in neutral bias.
Resistance: 1.0616, 1.0705
Support: 1.0500, 1.0405
XAU/USD Dips Below $2,000 Amidst Global Uncertainty and Central Bank Speculation
Gold (XAU/USD) is struggling to maintain the $2,000 mark after reaching a high of $2,009.34 last Friday, the highest level since mid-May. The demand for safe-haven assets has waned at the start of the week, impacting both Gold and the US Dollar. Global attention is focused on Middle East developments, including Israel’s ground offensive in the Gaza Strip, and anticipation is building for key central bank decisions, with the Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, and Bank of England set to announce their monetary policies this week. Additionally, the US employment situation and upcoming economic reports are expected to influence Gold’s performance, while stock markets remain positive and Treasury yields rise, albeit not providing strong support for the US Dollar.
According to technical analysis, XAU/USD is consolidating on Monday and has the potential to reach the middle band of the Bollinger Bands, which is currently squeezing. Presently, the price of gold is consolidating near the middle band, implying a possible downward consolidation. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 58, indicating a neutral bias for the XAU/USD pair.
Resistance: $2,007, $2,020
Support: $1,993, $1,977
| Currency | Data | Time (GMT + 8) | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| JPY | BOJ Policy Rate | Tentative | -0.10% |
| JPY | BOJ Outlook Report | Tentative | |
| JPY | Monetary Policy Statement | Tentative | |
| JPY | BOJ Press Conference | Tentative | |
| CAD | GDP m/m | 20:30 | 0.1% |
| USD | Employment Cost Index q/q | 20:30 | 1.0% |
| USD | CB Consumer Confidence | 22:00 | 100.5 |
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This week, traders are primarily focused on the rate decisions of major central banks, such as the Federal Reserve and Bank of England. Alongside these, the US Jobs Report is slated for release, serving as a critical indicator for the US’ economic health. Traders and investors are advised to be cautious, as these events could drive market fluctuations.
In its September meeting, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) unanimously voted to keep its key short-term interest rate at -0.1% and the 10-year bond yields at 0%.
Analysts predict that the central bank will keep these interest rate levels in its upcoming meeting on 31 October.
Canada’s economy showed stagnation in July, following a 0.2% decline in June.
Analysts expect a 0.1% growth for Canada’s GDP in August, with the figures set to be released on 31 October.
During its meeting in September, the Federal Reserve (Fed) maintained the target range for its funds rate at a 22-year high of 5.5%.
Analysts predict that the Fed will keep interest rates steady at 5.5% in the upcoming meeting on 2 November.
In its September meeting, the Bank of England held its policy interest rate at 5.25%, the highest level since 2008. This was influenced by the latest inflation and labour data.
As the next meeting approaches on 2 November, analysts predict that the central bank will maintain the rate at 5.25%.
The Canadian economy added 63,800 jobs in September 2023, the highest in eight months. However, the unemployment rate held steady at 5.5% for the third consecutive month.
Looking ahead, analysts forecast an addition of 24,600 jobs for October. These figures, due for release on 3 November, are also expected to show a slight rise in the unemployment rate to 5.6%.
The US nonfarm payrolls saw a increase of 336,000 in September, while the unemployment rate stayed steady at 3.8%.
For October 2023, the data set to be released on 3 November is anticipated to report an addition of 172,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate projected to remain at 3.8%.
