The S&P 500 advanced sharply on Thursday, buoyed by renewed trade optimism following remarks from US President Donald Trump. Posting on his Truth Social platform, Trump hinted at a significant trade deal with a ‘big’ country, widely interpreted as the United Kingdom. The announcement spurred a risk-on mood across global markets, propelling US equity futures higher and pushing the S&P 500 to an intraday high of 5678.48.
However, the optimism was tempered by Trump’s clarification that existing tariffs on Chinese imports would remain intact during initial negotiations. This added a layer of caution, as market participants remain sensitive to the risk of deteriorating US – China relations.
On the monetary policy front, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, which was in line with expectations. Chair Jerome Powell struck a careful tone, acknowledging inflationary pressures and a tight labour market, but stressed there is currently no case for rate cuts. Powell also noted that while tariffs pose risks to the outlook, the Fed remains data-dependent and will not act on speculation alone.
Markets responded positively to both the trade headlines and the Fed’s steady hand. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.7%, the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.27%, and the S&P 500 closed 0.43% higher before futures extended gains into the overnight session.
Technical Analysis
The S&P 500 has staged an impressive intraday recovery, rebounding sharply from the 5578 support zone to set a new session high at 5678. The bullish drive was preceded by a brief consolidation phase and a dip toward the 5619 area, where buyers re-emerged with strength. The 5- and 10-period moving averages have realigned upward, signalling renewed bullish structure, while the MACD histogram has flipped firmly positive, with its lines showing a clean bullish crossover.
Picture: S&P 500 rebounds from 5578, surges to 5678 as bullish momentum reclaims control near resistance, as seen on the VT Markets app.
This move clears near-term resistance and suggests continuation potential, especially if momentum sustains above 5670. However, the current push is approaching psychological resistance, and overextension may trigger minor profit-taking. A retracement toward 5640 could act as a healthy retest zone before bulls attempt further upside.
Outlook: Bullish but Cautious
While the technical structure remains supportive of further gains, headline risk looms. A sustained breakout above 5700 is possible if trade optimism continues, but sentiment could reverse swiftly should the proposed UK deal lack substance or US – China trade tensions reignite. Additionally, upcoming labour market data and any signs of economic softening could inject volatility.
Please note that the dividends of the following products will be adjusted accordingly. Index dividends will be executed separately through a balance statement directly to your trading account, and the comment will be in the following format “Div & Product Name & Net Volume”.
Please refer to the table below for more details:
The above data is for reference only, please refer to the MT4/MT5 software for specific data.
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Have you ever heard of a unique financial index called the Volfefe Index?
If you kept up with financial markets during Donald Trump’s presidency, you’re likely aware of his frequent tweeting and the existence of this strange yet real index.
The Volfefe Index is an analytical model created by JPMorgan to measure the impact of Donald Trump’s tweets on US interest rates.
And that’s not all…
Bank of America analysts also concluded that since 2016, the stock market tended to dip on days when Trump tweeted more than 35 times, and rebound on days when he tweeted fewer than five times!
Social Media Posts by Influential Figures Can Shift Market Direction
Social media has transformed how we connect, entertain, learn, and share information. Platforms like X, Facebook, and Reddit have opened up a borderless world to anyone with an internet connection.
But alongside the growing influence of social media in modern society, its power to reshape the financial world in an instant has increased as well, as we saw with Donald Trump and Twitter.
A tweet from a CEO, an endorsement from a celebrity, or advice from an influencer can rattle markets and shake global financial sentiment!
Here, we highlight five incidents where social media activity changed the course of financial markets:
1. Shiba Inu Cryptocurrency Rallies Following Elon Musk’s Tweet
The world’s richest entrepreneur, Elon Musk, is a vocal supporter of Dogecoin. Musk frequently shares his views on Shiba Inu-themed cryptocurrencies through his posts on X.
Recently, Musk joked on X about wanting to serve in the “Department of Government Efficiency” or its acronym, D.O.G.E.
The tweet’s impact on Dogecoin was no joke. It sent the price soaring by 30% to $0.7011 in just minutes!
2. Mark Cuban’s Scepticism On Bitcoin
If you’re familiar with the NBA, you’ll know Mark Cuban as the former owner of the Dallas Mavericks, who won the championship in 2011.
But Cuban’s NBA involvement is just one of his many ventures that paved the way for his billionaire status, including Broadcast.com, HDNet, and MicroSolutions.
So, it’s no surprise that when Cuban tweets, his 8.9 million followers take notice, and often act!
In a now-deleted tweet from early June 2017, Cuban warned that Bitcoin was in a bubble, ready to burst at any moment.
This was just one of many instances of Cuban voicing his scepticism toward Bitcoin. He has argued that Bitcoin will not become a valuable digital currency in the long run.
3. ‘Pump and Dump’ Schemes By Social Media Influencers
A stock fraud case in the US in 2022 stemmed from investors following the recommendations of several social media influencers who manipulated the stock market for personal gain.
The scam, masterminded by eight influencers, ran on the following modus operandi:
1. Selecting a stock to manipulate This group identified small-cap stocks (typically worth only a few million dollars). These are easier to manipulate due to their low trading volume and lack of attention from mainstream investors.
The influencers would first buy shares in these companies at very low prices in preparation for the next step.
2. Promoting the stocks on social media Next, the group would hype these stocks to their followers on platforms like Twitter and Discord, generating positive sentiment in the market.
What was the immediate effect of these promotions?
The stocks would surge dramatically! This is the ‘pump’ phase of the ‘pump and dump’ operation.
3. Selling off the stocks What comes after the pump? The ‘dump’, which is selling the stocks to cash in.
And the victims?
Their unsuspecting followers were left holding rapidly devaluing shares after the influencers had sold out.
This group profited around $114 million from this scheme, which ran from January 2020 to April 2022.
As a result, in December 2022, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) announced charges against all eight influencers for their roles in this securities fraud.
4. Redditors Take On Hedge Funds
The GameStop stock drama was a fascinating episode for Reddit trolls, market watchers, analysts, and GameStop. Not so much for short sellers, who took heavy losses.
In January 2021, struggling video game retailer GameStop found itself at the centre of a Wall Street storm.
Several large hedge funds had heavily shorted GameStop shares, betting the price would continue to fall due to its weakening business model, the rise of digital gaming, and competition from online retailers.
However, a group of retail investors on the subreddit r/WallStreetBets, which often targets heavily shorted stocks, noticed the extreme short interest in GameStop.
The subreddit post that sparked the short squeeze saga of GameStop shares
These Redditors banded together and encouraged each other to buy GameStop shares, aiming to trigger a short squeeze – a rapid price increase that would force short sellers to cover their positions at much higher prices.
This operation gained momentum via posts on Reddit and other platforms like Discord and Twitter. The result? GameStop’s share price skyrocketed.
The story grabbed global headlines, with a narrative of ‘retail investors versus Wall Street’ sparking widespread interest, especially among amateur traders who joined the buying frenzy.
Caught off guard, short sellers were forced to buy back shares to close their positions, adding fuel to the rally.
The GameStop saga is a powerful example of how social media can unite retail traders to shift market trends in unexpected ways.
5. From Reality TV To Crypto Promotion
Who hasn’t heard of Kim Kardashian?
Whether or not you’re a fan of The Kardashians, Kim’s misstep in the crypto world once again brought her name to the headlines.
Remember the ‘pump and dump’ tactic we discussed earlier?
Essentially, the same thing happened here, with Kim K playing the role of the star promoter for a cryptocurrency called EthereumMax, or E-Max.
Just look at this Instagram story from Kim:
In reality, the ‘my friends’ she referred to were E-Max founders who had paid Kim $250,000 to use her name and platform to promote the cryptocurrency.
Although she used the hashtag #ad, the SEC said that disclosure wasn’t sufficient, especially since Kim failed to tell her followers she had been paid to make the post.
As a result, Kim was fined $1.26 million by the SEC and banned from promoting any cryptocurrency for three years.
In addition, she faced a lawsuit from E-Max investors. She was accused, along with the project’s founders, of promoting and selling the cryptocurrency with deceptive intent.
The lawsuit also claimed that E-Max was a classic pump-and-dump scheme, where slick marketing boosted the asset’s price before it was sold to unsuspecting investors for a quick profit.
Final Thoughts
A single social media post can change the world. Or at least the financial markets.
If you want to become a more informed trader, pay attention to high-profile individuals whose social media activity could move the markets.
Or, if you’re taking financial advice from influencers, make sure they have real experience and a solid track record in investing.
Bonus points if they’re licensed by a regulatory body like the Securities Commission of Malaysia.
Above all, ensure your fundamental and technical knowledge is strong enough to guide your trading strategy.
Investor A buys shares of a tech stock surging on AI hype. Her initial target is a 10% gain. When the stock rockets to 15%, greed takes over. “What if this becomes the next Tesla?” she thinks, abandoning her plan. Days later, earnings disappoint, and the stock plummets 30%, erasing her gains. She’s left holding a loss, wondering why she ignored her strategy.
Investor B invests in a stable blue-chip stock, but a minor geopolitical event triggers a 5% market dip. Fear paralyses her. “This could be the start of a crash!” She sells immediately, locking in a loss. Within hours, the market recovers, and the stock rallies 8%. Her fear cost her not just money, but confidence.
These stories aren’t rare. They’re the norm. Fear and greed are primal forces that amplify losses and sabotage gains. But with the right mindset, they can be tamed.
Why Fear and Greed Are Integral to Trading
“The investor’s chief problem, and even his worst enemy, is likely to be himself.”
Benjamin Graham, the father of value investing.
Fear and greed aren’t flaws. They’re embedded in the DNA of financial markets. Here’s how they shape trends:
Greed drives euphoria. In 2021, retail investors piled into meme stocks like GameStop, pushing its price from 18 to 483 in weeks. Many held too long, ignoring fundamentals, and watched gains evaporate.
Markets oscillate between these extremes, creating opportunities for disciplined investors. As Warren Buffett famously said, “Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.” The key is recognising these emotions in yourself and the market.
Fear – When Anxiety Overrides Logic
Fear in investing or trading is the instinctual urge to avoid loss, often leading to impulsive decisions. It’s rooted in the brain’s amygdala, which triggers a ‘fight or flight’ response to perceived threats.
A common situation when primal fear grips the investors’ or traders’ decision-making process is analysis paralysis. It happens when a comprehensive analysis points towards a profitable trade, yet the person chooses to walk away from it due to pessimistic pressure.
Another manifestation of fear is moving stop-losses wider during drawdowns to avoid realising a loss, risking bigger collapses.
Greed – The Double-Edged Sword Of Ambition
Ignoring risk-reward ratios by holding a position for ‘just a little more profit’ despite deteriorating fundamentals demonstrates greed.
Or how about chasing every trend or signal, leading to commission burnout and diluted focus? That’s another case of greed!
Greed is the excessive desire for profit, often blinding investors or traders to risk. It’s fueled by dopamine, the brain’s ‘reward chemical,’ which spikes during winning streaks.
Tips To Keep Fear And Greed In Check Before You Trade
From Emotional Reactivity To Strategic Mastery
Fear and greed aren’t enemies. They’re signals. Fear warns you to check your risk. Greed reminds you to secure profits. The difference between success and failure lies in how you respond.
As psychologist Daniel Kahneman, Nobel laureate, noted, “The emotional tail wags the rational dog.” In trading, you must leash the tail.
Trade with clarity. Master your mind. Profit with purpose.
Please note that the dividends of the following products will be adjusted accordingly. Index dividends will be executed separately through a balance statement directly to your trading account, and the comment will be in the following format “Div & Product Name & Net Volume”.
Please refer to the table below for more details:
The above data is for reference only, please refer to the MT4/MT5 software for specific data.
If you’d like more information, please don’t hesitate to contact [email protected].
Corporate earnings can inspire confidence, and Q1 2025 was no exception, at least on the surface. The S&P 500 reported a 12.8% year-over-year earnings increase, with 76% of companies surpassing EPS expectations. It marked the seventh consecutive quarter of earnings growth and the second straight quarter of double-digit gains. Still, despite these solid figures, caution is starting to creep in.
Roughly 72% of S&P 500 companies have reported so far, and results have exceeded expectations. Profit margins rose to 12.7% from 11.8% a year ago, and revenues posted an 18th consecutive quarter of growth, albeit at a slower pace of 4.8%, below the 5-year average of 7.0%. Standouts included Communication Services and Health Care, with companies like Meta, Alphabet, Microsoft, and Bristol Myers Squibb leading the charge.
Yet not all sectors shared in the success. Energy earnings slumped 14.4% year-over-year, dragged down by low oil prices. Industrials also underperformed, hurt by falling revenues. These weaker areas are significant, as they are most exposed to upcoming macroeconomic challenges.
What To Expect
Analyst sentiment for Q2 is becoming increasingly cautious. Since March 31, earnings expectations have been revised down by 2.4%—a steeper drop than the 5-year and 10-year averages of -1.8% and -1.6%, respectively. The downward shift reflects concerns over shrinking margins, waning demand, and the threat of renewed tariffs. Energy forecasts have been slashed by 14.8%, and Materials by 11.9%, with Industrials also facing pressure.
Only Utilities (+0.8%) and Communication Services (+1.4%) have seen positive revisions, underlining the fragility of growth prospects.
For now, full-year EPS is still projected to grow 9.5%, with Q2, Q3, and Q4 estimates sitting at 5.7%, 7.8%, and 7.1%, respectively. While this points to continued growth, the pace is clearly slowing, adding uncertainty to equity market stability.
Despite mixed guidance, the S&P 500 remains priced for optimism. Its forward P/E ratio is 20.2, which is above the 5-year average of 19.9 and the 10-year average of 18.3, indicating markets still expect resilience through 2025 and into 2026, where EPS growth is forecasted at 11.1%. However, this leaves the index vulnerable to disappointment, especially in sectors tied to global trade.
Analysts remain divided. About 56% have a Buy rating on S&P 500 companies, with Energy, Communication Services, and Technology drawing the most optimism, despite Energy’s weak results. Overall, price targets suggest a 17% upside, but that hinges on companies delivering in an increasingly challenging environment.
Traders should closely monitor the Energy sector, where oil price pressure and geopolitical factors remain key. Consumer-focused and manufacturing firms may also come under strain if tariffs rise and consumer sentiment weakens.
Market Movements This Week
Despite strong Q1 earnings, price action now offers important signals. Markets tend to move ahead of headlines, so technical levels could offer insight into upcoming shifts.
In currency markets, the US Dollar Index (USDX) has extended its climb from the 98.80 area. With current price action hovering near 100.60, we’re watching for a possible consolidation here. If support holds, the index could stretch further to test 102.00. The dollar’s strength adds pressure to risk assets and commodities alike, especially if investors start pricing in higher-for-longer rates or fresh tariff headwinds.
EUR/USD continues to drift lower, with price now pointing toward the 1.1200 support zone. Should it stabilise here, traders will look for direction into 1.0970 next. GBP/USD paints a similar picture, trading lower and approaching 1.3145 as its next key level. If dollar strength persists, these pairs could remain on the defensive for a while longer.
USD/JPY is on the move again, now pushing toward 146.60. If it holds above this level, the next target lies near 149.15. Price action in this pair mirrors broader yen weakness, potentially linked to Japan’s policy divergence and safe haven outflows. The Swiss franc is also weakening—USD/CHF has resumed its upward climb, with 0.8530 now in focus.
AUD/USD, meanwhile, is retesting the 0.6460 area. If price pops higher, bulls may be eyeing resistance near 0.6480 or 0.6520. On the downside, 0.6385 remains the key level to watch. NZD/USD is slightly more active, trading up from the 0.5910 zone. But to see any real momentum, price needs to break above the 0.5986 or 0.6000 levels. If sellers return instead, 0.5870 is the next likely test.
USD/CAD is bouncing off support at 1.3755, a level that’s now acted as a floor more than once. If price turns upward again, traders will be watching 1.3910 or 1.3945 for resistance. If the move doesn’t stick, 1.3710 could be the next magnet. Canadian dollar weakness often rides in tandem with lower oil prices, so the correlation remains in play.
Crude oil remains under pressure. West Texas Intermediate (USOil) continues to trend lower and is approaching the key 58.30 level. A pause or consolidation here could open the door for fresh bearish setups, with 53.00 as the next major downside target if momentum doesn’t stabilise. The decline in oil aligns closely with the earnings contraction seen in the Energy sector, adding further weight to that theme of weakness.
Gold has been quiet, hovering below $3300. If we see a consolidation pattern form, bearish setups could trigger below this level. Gold has struggled to hold higher ground lately, despite global uncertainty and softer central bank rhetoric. This suggests that traders may be rotating out of safe havens in favour of risk assets—or simply waiting for a clearer directional cue.
The S&P 500 climbed higher last week, rising above the 5610 level. This rally echoes the optimism we saw in Q1 earnings, but with forward earnings estimates being revised lower, we’re eyeing this move with a bit more scepticism. If price consolidates here, traders may watch for bullish action near 5490 before making a push toward 5775 or 5830. However, failure to hold the 5610 zone could unwind some of the recent gains quickly, especially if macro headwinds intensify.
Bitcoin keeps grinding higher and is now pressing against the 98,300 level. If this momentum holds, crypto bulls could drive price toward fresh highs. However, if we see a pullback, bullish price action at 94,510 or even 91,500 would be the key areas to reassess long positions. With risk appetite flickering on and off, Bitcoin is still acting as a bellwether for broader speculative sentiment.
Natural gas is sitting tight around the 3.50 mark. Consolidation here could set up for a bullish move if price finds strength at 3.30. But with summer demand still unclear and storage numbers in flux, traders may want to wait for a stronger signal before jumping in.
Key Events This Week
As earnings season wraps up, the spotlight shifts back to macro data and central banks—factors that could sway already fragile sentiment.
Monday, May 5: The US ISM Services PMI is expected to dip slightly to 50.2 from 50.8. A reading below 50 signals contraction. Weak services data could reignite fears of a broader slowdown.
Friday, May 9: The US Non-Farm Payrolls report is projected at 129K, well below the previous 228K. With unemployment expected to hold at 4.2%, a significant miss could reinforce rate cut expectations.
While no single event may tip the scales, taken together, they could shift market direction, especially in vulnerable sectors. With volatility ticking higher, the most critical signals may lie not in the headlines but in the subtleties of tone, data revisions, and price response.
Please note that the dividends of the following products will be adjusted accordingly. Index dividends will be executed separately through a balance statement directly to your trading account, and the comment will be in the following format “Div & Product Name & Net Volume”.
Please refer to the table below for more details:
The above data is for reference only, please refer to the MT4/MT5 software for specific data.
If you’d like more information, please don’t hesitate to contact [email protected].
Oil prices climbed on Friday, buoyed by renewed optimism surrounding US-China relations. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude advanced by 0.8%, closing at $59.74 per barrel, while Brent crude also moved higher, adding 49 cents to finish at $62.62. Both benchmarks continued their upward movement from late Thursday, erasing losses sustained earlier in the week due to OPEC+ supply-related uncertainties.
Crude oil has staged a sharp recovery off the $56.38 low, closing near $59.67. After declining sharply from $60.13, the price stabilised near the lower range before reversing. The moving averages (5, 10, 30) have now flipped into a bullish alignment, with price holding above all three lines and maintaining an upward trajectory.
Oil claws back above $59 after a strong bounce from $56. Momentum slows near resistance, as seen on the VT Markets app.
The MACD (12,26,9) confirms this bullish momentum with a clean crossover and rising green histogram bars, though the slope is beginning to flatten – hinting at short-term exhaustion. Resistance near $59.85–$60.13 is the next key barrier to watch. If breached, this could open the door for a retest of $61.00.
For now, momentum favours bulls, but consolidation may follow after such an aggressive rebound.
US – Iran Fallout
Meanwhile, President Trump stoked fresh geopolitical concerns by warning of possible secondary sanctions against nations continuing to purchase oil from Iran. These comments came after US-Iran nuclear negotiations collapsed, prompting Washington to double down on efforts to halt Iran’s oil exports entirely, a recurring factor that has tended to support higher prices in the past.
Future Output Plan From OPEC+
Despite this, gains may be capped. Reports from Reuters suggest Saudi Arabia is hesitant to maintain current output cuts, even as oil remains below its favoured price range. A key OPEC+ meeting involving eight member countries is scheduled for 5 May, where plans for June output will be finalised. Some participants are reportedly pushing for a second straight production increase. In the meantime, rising output from non-OPEC nations continues to pressure the group’s efforts to manage global supply.
As Beijing’s trade stance evolves and OPEC+ debates its next move, oil markets are expected to remain highly sensitive to breaking news. While the rebound has cleared short-term hurdles, any further rally depends on clarity from the US and Saudi leadership. For now, traders should closely watch the $60.13 level as a key indicator of continued bullish momentum.
Please note that the dividends of the following products will be adjusted accordingly. Index dividends will be executed separately through a balance statement directly to your trading account, and the comment will be in the following format “Div & Product Name & Net Volume”.
Please refer to the table below for more details:
The above data is for reference only, please refer to the MT4/MT5 software for specific data.
If you’d like more information, please don’t hesitate to contact [email protected].
Please note that the dividends of the following products will be adjusted accordingly. Index dividends will be executed separately through a balance statement directly to your trading account, and the comment will be in the following format “Div & Product Name & Net Volume”.
Please refer to the table below for more details:
The above data is for reference only, please refer to the MT4/MT5 software for specific data.
If you’d like more information, please don’t hesitate to contact [email protected].
Insights 
VT 
