US stocks declined lower on Thursday, continuing their downside momentum and dropping for a second day as Federal Reserve officials are likely to remain persistent in their fight against inflation and warned of more pain to come. Fed speakers in recent days have emphasized that they need to go further to extinguish price pressures.

Moreover, the renewed concerns related to the Ukraine-Russia war and the worsening coronavirus outbreak in China both weighed on investors’ moods. The country reports increased cases daily, which raised potential supply-chain issues for the global economy.

On the economic data, the US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims declined to 222K, which came in slightly better than the market expectation of 225K.

On the Eurozone side, the negative sentiment could be due to recent events in Polonia, as NATO believes Russia was responsible for the missile strike that targeted a Polish city, despite the missile presumably originating from Ukraine’s defence.

The benchmarks, S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average both edged lower on Thursday as the S&P 500 declined for the second straight session amid the souring market mood. The S&P 500 was down 0.3% daily and the Dow Jones Industrial Average was little changed with a 0.1% loss for the day. Eight out of eleven sectors in the S&P 500 stayed in negative territory as the Utility sector and the Consumer Discretionary sector are the worst performing among all groups, losing 1.79% and 1.27%, respectively. The Nasdaq 100 meanwhile retreated slightly with a 0.2% loss on Thursday and the MSCI World index was down 0.8% for the day.

Main Pairs Movement

The US dollar advanced higher on Thursday, regaining some upside traction and recovering some of the ground lost earlier in the week in the late US trading session as the market mood remained sour. Despite the latest second-tier data from the United States coming in mixed, the Federal Reserve policymakers’ resistance to reiterate the statements favouring the 50 bps rate hike in December helped the US Dollar to find demand.

GBP/USD declined lower on Thursday with a 0.42% loss as the cable witnessed fresh selling and retreated towards the 1.1780 mark after the UK budget and US data. On the UK front, the UK government presented a fiscal plan, which presented an increase in taxes of £55 billion and spending cuts to restore the UK’s fiscal reputation. Meanwhile, EUR/USD retreated slightly from a daily high and finished the day in the 1.0360 price zone amid a stronger US dollar across the board. The pair was down almost 0.32% for the day.

Gold declined lower with a 0.76% loss for the day after extending the intra-day slide towards a daily low around the $1758 area during the US trading session, as Federal Reserve talks, Russia-Ukraine tussles and Covid woes both favoured the greenback. Meanwhile, WTI Oil dropped sharply with a 4.62% loss for the day.

Technical Analysis

EURUSD (4-Hour Chart)

The EURUSD continued to edge lower and traded deep in negative territory slightly above the 1.0300 level as of writing. As the market sentiment keeps undermining, helping the safe-haven greenback gather strength on Thursday and weighing on the euro. Geopolitical tensions and concerns about global economic setbacks came back to fashion this week, and weight on stock markets. The US Dollar is showing signs of responding to risk-off flows, although its gains are limited, as US Treasury yields are seeing limited activity. The 10-year Treasury yields note hovers around 3.73%, roughly 50 bps below its year’s peak, while that on the 2-year note stands at 4.38%. In data-wise, the European Area released September Construction Output, which rose 0.1% MoM as anticipated. The Union’s Consumer Price Index was revised to 10.6% YoY in October, slightly below the preliminary estimate of 10.7%. The United States Initial Jobless Claims for the week printed 222K, a little lower than the estimate of 225K, and Building Permits in October reads 1.526M, compared to the consensus of 1.512M, which provides some support for the US Dollar.

From the technical perspective, the four-hour scale RSI indicator further declined to 54 figures as of writing, suggesting that the pair was confronting a corrective pullback. As for the Bollinger Bands, the EURUSD was pricing below the 20-period moving average and the size between upper and lower got closer, which is a signal that the pair move with small volatility. As a result, we think the pair would be put into sideway shortly.

Resistance: 1.0475, 1.0604

Support: 1.0298, 1.0167, 0.9953

GBPUSD (4-Hour Chart)

The GBPUSD stayed deep in red and traded below the 1.1780 level as of writing, as investors assess the UK’s Autumn Budget and the US Dollar managed to regather strength from the deteriorated market mood. While testifying before the UK Treasury Select Committee, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said that they are likely to raise interest rates further. However, this comment failed to provide a boost to the Pound Sterling as Bailey also acknowledged they were seeing signs that the supply chain shock was starting to fade. Also, the Chancellor of the Exchequer, Jeremy Hunt presented the Autumn Statement, the budget of Prime Minister Rishi Sunak on Thursday. The budget was large as expected by analysts. Hunt presented an increase in taxes of £55 billion and spending cuts to restore the UK’s fiscal reputation after a chaotic September and October. On the data side, economic data from the US showed an unexpected decline in the Philly Fed to -19.4 in November from -8.7. Continuing Jobless Claims rose to the highest level since April. The US dollar initially dropped after the reports, but immediately rebounded sharply and reached a fresh daily high.

From the technical perspective, the four-hour scale RSI indicator retreated further to 53 figures as of writing, suggesting that the short-term upside traction faded. As for the Bollinger Bands, the price was priced in the lower area and close to the 20-period moving average, indicating that the price now has no clear direction. Hence, we think the cables were likely getting into the consolidation phase in the near term.

Resistance: 1.2028, 1.2145

Support: 1.1742, 1.1633, 1.1365

XAUUSD (4-Hour Chart)

The XAUUSD extended its losses and eyeing a test of the weekly lows around $1753 marks, following hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) commentary and a tranche of United States economic data released that underpinned the US Dollar. The risk sentiment shifted sour as Fed policymakers emphasized the need to tackle inflation, led by the St. Louis Fed President James Bullard. Bullar said that rates might be “sufficiently restrictive” at around 5% to 7% and called his colleagues to raise rates further if they’re to achieve the Fed’s 2% goal. On the data side, a busy economic calendar in the United States would entertain Gold traders, led by unemployment claims and housing data. Initial Jobless Claims for the week dropped to 222K, below estimates of 225K and the previous week’s 226K. Contrarily Continuing Claims rose 13K, to 1.51 million, increasing for the fifth straight week, an uptrend signing that Americans are out of work for longer. Furthermore, a jump in US Treasury bond yields weighed on the yellow metal. The US 10-year Treasury bond yield jumps 9 bps to 3.781%, acting as a headwind for the non-yielding yellow metal.

From the technical perspective, the four-hour scale RSI indicator dropped deeper to 50 figures as of writing, suggesting that the gold was confronting a corrective pullback. As for the Bollinger Bands, XAUUSD was pricing below the 20-period moving average with low volatility. As a result, we think the pullback is to store the strength for the next rally, and the pair was more favoured to move with low volatility in the near term.

Resistance: 1800

Support: 1748, 1704, 1670

Economic Data

US stocks declined lower on Wednesday, failing to preserve their upside momentum and witnessing selling pressure after strong retail sales data and comments from at least two Federal Reserve speakers recast bets that the central bank’s policy tightening regime is nearing an end.

The US Retail Sales rose by 1.3% in October, which came in better than the market expectation for an increase of 1% and indicated the economy can withstand additional Fed hikes. The figure weighed on equity markets amid speculation that inflation may resume its advance and the US Federal Reserve could maintain the aggressive tightening path.

Moreover, former President Donald Trump announced he will seek another term in the office, launching his Presidential run for 2024. The news lifted concerns amid his views on the US relationship with China.

On the Eurozone front, European Central Bank (ECB) Vice President Luis de Guindos said that the ECB would continue with policy normalisation and continue the restrictive monetary policy.

The benchmarks, S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average both declined lower on Wednesday as the S&P 500 fell after a report showed retail sales posted the biggest increase in eight months in October. The S&P 500 was down 0.8% on a daily basis and the Dow Jones Industrial Average also dropped slightly with a 0.1% loss for the day. Nine out of eleven sectors in the S&P 500 stayed in negative territory as the Energy sector and the Consumer Discretionary sector are the worst performing among all groups, losing 2.15% and 1.46%, respectively. The Nasdaq 100 meanwhile retreated the most with a 1.4% loss on Wednesday and the MSCI World index was up 1.1% for the day.

Main Pairs Movement

The US dollar edged lower on Wednesday, gathering some strength in the late US trading session and ended the day mixed amid a worsening sentiment following Tuesday’s developments in the Ukraine-Russia war. On top of that, tensions arose in China as the country keeps reporting increased coronavirus contagions and Regional lockdowns spread across the country are worsening the situation. The US Retails Sales also smashed forecasts and pressured the Federal Reserve.

GBP/USD advanced higher on Wednesday with a 0.41% gain after the cable rebounded towards the 1.1920 mark and recovered some of its daily gains as UK inflation surged. On the UK front, the significant jump in the UK inflation rate has triggered chances of further policy tightening by the BOE in the upcoming monetary policy announcements. Meanwhile, EUR/USD remains sidelined around a 4.5-month high and paused a two-day uptrend below the 1.0400 mark amid mixed market sentiment. The pair was up almost 0.44% for the day.

Gold retreated lower with a 0.29% loss for the day after testing the weekly high around the $1786 mark during the European session, as the mixed data from the US spurred a risk-off impulse and provided support to the US dollar. Meanwhile, WTI Oil dropped sharply with a 1.53% loss for the day as the Druzhba pipeline, which carries Russian oil into Europe, is said to have been restored.

Technical Analysis

EURUSD (4-Hour Chart)

The EURUSD has erased it’s daily and declined below 1.0400 in the American session on Wednesday, as the negative shift witnessed in the risk sentiment despite the upbeat US Retail Sales data seemed to be helping the US Dollar find demand and weighing on the pair. The US core Retail Sales MoM, which measures the change in the total value of sales at the retail level in the U.S., printed surprisingly 1.3% compared to the forecast of 0.4% and the previous 0.1%. The better-than-expected sale data drew support for the safe-haven greenback in the early US trading session. Apart from this, concerns arose late on Tuesday, when supposed Russian missiles hit a Poland city near Ukraine’s border, killing two civilians. Moscow denied responsibility and initial findings suggest it could be part of Ukraine’s air defences. Nevertheless, NATO and Poland are on alert and further investigating the situation. In the meantime, the political developments in the United States take centre stage. Former US President Donald Trump announced he will run for president in 2024. Additionally, Republicans are close to winning control of the House of Representatives, adding 8 seats to a total of 217, just one short of the total needed to create a majority.

From the technical perspective, the four-hour scale RSI indicator slid to 60 figures as of writing, which suggested that the pair’s upside traction has been softer. As for the Bollinger Bands, the euro was hovering in the higher area. Therefore, we think the euro has no direction and would be put sideway.

Resistance: 1.0606, 1.0349

Support: 1.0280, 1.0167, 0.9953

GBPUSD (4-Hour Chart)

The GBPUSD edged high following the release of mixed US economic data from the United States, while also a slew of Bank of England (BoE) governors crossed the newswires after a red-hot UK CPI report. At the time of writing, the British pound was trading at 1.18886 with a 0.22% gain on a daily basis. The US Department of Commerce (DoC) reported that sales grew the most in eight months, with readings hitting 1.3% MoM vs. 1% estimated by analysts. Digging deep into the report, Retail Sales in the control group, used to calculate Gross Domestic Product (GDP), expanded by 0.7% MoM vs. 0.3% foreseen. Even though inflation data in the United States showed signs that an era of elevated prices could end, consumer resilience proves otherwise. In the domestic, the Consumer Price Index for October jumped 11.1% YoY, smashing estimates of 10.7%, reported the Office for National Statistics (ONS). Notably, the inflation report comes one day before Chancellor Jeremy Hunt unveils the Autumn Budget, which is expected to show a “fiscally responsible” government under new Prime Minister Rishi Sunak. After the release of the UK inflation readings, the BoE Governor Andrew Baily said that inflation is reflecting a series of supply shocks. However, he added that those shocks are starting to fade and noted that the central bank would raise rates further.

From the technical perspective, the four-hour scale RSI indicator remained at 62 figured as of writing, suggesting that the pair’s bullish momentum turned mild. As for the Bollinger Bands, the cables were wandering in the upper area, which is a signal that there is no clear tendency and gets into a consolidation phase.

Resistance: 1.2028, 1.2143

Support: 1.1744, 1.1639, 1.1358, 1.1141

XAUUSD (4-Hour Chart)

The gold price climbed to a daily high of $1785 during the European session but reversed its direction in the second half of the day on Wednesday, as the US Dollar benefited from safe-haven flows. The XAUUSD was trading at $1774 marks at the time of writing. The yellow metal is looking for more clarity on Russian military attacks on Poland as statements from US President Joe Biden and Polish President Andrzej Duda have created confusion. In early Asia, Biden noted that “based on the trajectory, it is unlikely that the missile is fired from Russia.” Also, Duda confirmed that what happened was a one-off incident, adding that there were no indications that there will be a repeat of today’s incident. This year, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has already brought significant volatility in the global markets. An extension of Russian military attacks on members of NATO would accelerate it further. This might also impact gold prices significantly. Meanwhile, the returns on the United States government bonds have been a major victim of a significant decline in US inflation figures. The 10-year United States Treasury has dropped sharply from a high of 4.34% to a low near 3.76%.

From the technical perspective, the four-hour scale RSI indicator dropped to 59 figures as of writing, suggesting that the gold was confronting a corrective pullback. As for the Bollinger Bands, XAUUSD was pricing around the 20-period moving average with low volatility. As a result, we think the pullback is to store the strength for the next rally, and the bullish path is more favoured in the near future.

Resistance: 1800

Support: 1748, 1704, 1670

Economic Data

US stocks rebounded higher on Tuesday, ending their previous slide and regaining upside momentum as fresh data added to evidence that inflation may have peaked. The Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand in the US declined to 8% on a yearly basis in October, which decelerated compared to last month’s 8.2% and strengthened the case for the Federal Reserve to moderate its pace of interest-rate hikes.

The market sentiment improved following the release of the US Producer Price Index and acted as a tailwind for the equity markets. Moreover, some Fed speakers in recent days also indicated that officials could slow their tempo and emphasized the central bank has more work to do to tame inflation. On the Eurozone front, geopolitical tensions arose as the latest news reported that two Russian missiles landed in Poland and killed two Polish. After the incident, Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki called an urgent meeting and things could escalate fast as Poland is a NATO member.

The benchmarks, S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average both advanced higher on Tuesday as the S&P 500 soared for most of Tuesday’s session, giving back some of its gains after the latest news showed that Russian missiles landed in NATO-member Poland. The S&P 500 was up 0.9% on a daily basis and the Dow Jones Industrial Average also climbed slightly with a 0.2% gain for the day. Nine out of eleven sectors in the S&P 500 stayed in positive territory as the Communication Services sector and the Consumer Discretionary sector are the best performing among all groups, rising 1.78% and 1.24%, respectively. The Nasdaq 100 meanwhile advanced the most with a 1.5% gain on Tuesday and the MSCI World index was down 0.6% for the day.

Main Pairs Movement

The US dollar retreated lower on Tuesday, failing to preserve upside traction and dropped to fresh monthly lows against most major rivals but then posted a nice comeback ahead of the close amid a mixed market mood. The headlines surrounding Russia and the market’s cautious sentiment ahead of the US Retail Sales for October have provided some support to the safe-haven greenback. Downbeat prints of US Retail Sales could weigh on prices amid talks of the Fed’s pivot.

GBP/USD advanced higher on Tuesday with a 0.93% gain after the cable retreated back towards the 1.1800 mark and surrendered its daily gains following the release of US PPI data. On the UK front, the UK’s Chancellor of the Exchequer, Jeremy Hunt, gave some clues regarding the Autumn Budget. Meanwhile, EUR/USD failed to extend the upside traction and retreated from the highest levels since early July around to 1.0300 area amid mixed market sentiment. The pair was up almost 0.20% for the day.

Gold advanced higher with a 0.43% gain for the day after climbing steadily to the $1,780 mark during the US session, as Federal Reserve’s case for diminishing interest-rate size increases has helped the yellow metal to find demand. Meanwhile, WTI Oil advanced sharply with a 1.22% gain for the day amid geopolitical worries from Europe.

Technical Analysis

EURUSD (4-Hour Chart)

The EURUSD has lost its bullish momentum and slid below the 1.0400 level following a sharp spike in the early US trading session, as the US Dollar Index, which dropped to multi-month lows after soft US PPI data, managed to recover some grounds and climb above 106.00 level at the time of writing, capping the pair’s upside. The US. Producer Price Index (PPI), which measures the change in the price of goods sold by manufacturers, rose by 0.2% in October, compared to market expectations and the previous month of 0.4%. The softer-than-expected data weighed on the greenback, which, in turn, drew support for the European currency. Apart from this, the Euro Area Gross Domestic Product was confirmed at 0.2% QoQ in the third quarter of the year, as previously estimated. The German ZEW survey showed that the Economic Sentiment improved in November but also that it remains within negative levels.

From the technical perspective, the four-hour scale RSI indicator dropped sharply to 61 figures as of writing, which suggested that the pair witnessed huge selling transactions. As for the Bollinger Bands, the euro was pricing in the higher area, close to the 20-period moving average. Therefore, we think the pullback is good news for the pair, it’s a healthy pullback to store the upside strength.

Resistance: 1.0606, 1.0349

Support: 1.0272, 1.0163, 0.9955

GBPUSD (4-Hour Chart)

The GBPUSD has erased a portion of its gains after having jumped above 1.2000 earlier in the day. Nevertheless, the pair is still up more than 1% on the day, supported by the improving market mood following weaker-than-expected US producer inflation data, and the British pound was pricing at 1.1810 level as of writing. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Producer Price Index for October, printing 0.2% compared to the market estimates and the previous 0.4%, ahead of the American trading session. Although the data hurt the safe-haven greenback heavily in the early American trading session, the US Dollar regathered strength in the second half. The DXY index, which tracks the greenback vs. a basket of its main rivals, rebounded from multi-month lows to above 106.5 level at the moment of writing, as the market is amid worsening risk sentiment. In the domestic, the ONS reported that the ILO Unemployment Rate edged higher to 3.6% in three months to September from 3.5%, and the further details of the publication revealed that the annual wage inflation, as measured by the Average Earnings Excluding Bonus, rose to 5.7% from 5.5%.

From the technical perspective, the four-hour scale RSI indicator retreated to 62 figures as of writing, suggesting the upbeat market mood has been calm down. As for the Bollinger Bands, the pair was priced in the upper area and close to the 20-period moving average. Hence, our view of this kind of movement is a great pullback to consume the overbuying orders, and the pair is more favoured to upside movement in the near term.

Resistance: 1.1901, 1.2157

Support: 1.1639, 1.1353, 1.1140

XAUUSD (4-Hour Chart)

The gold was headed higher on the day and trading at $1774 as of writing, with the undermining market mood on Poland news. The XAUUSD surged with a 0.3% gain on the news that at least two are dead after Russian missiles landed in NATO state Poland on the Ukraine border, according to the Express. Poland has convened a national security committee meeting according to a spokesman. The US Dollar had been pressured on Monday following Producer Price Index data that mirrored last week’s Consumer Price Index. However, the DXY index recovered some ground and climbed back above the 106.5 level as of writing. Meanwhile, the US 2-year yield is trading near 4.37%, just above the recent low near 4.29% last Thursday. The 10-year yield is trading near 3.80%, below the recent low near 3.81% last Thursday, which drew support for the non-yielding yellow metal. Equity markets had latched onto the PPI data as confirmation of the CPI data but flaked out on the day and started to melt towards the lowest point of the day, as risk-off outflow caused by sudden geopolitical disruption.

From the technical perspective, the four-hour scale RSI indicator remained above 70 figured three days in a row, suggesting that the gold’s upside momentum is strong enough to confront the short-term corrective pullback. As for the Bollinger Bands, the yellow metal kept moving above the 20-period moving average, targeting the $1800 marks psychological level. Therefore, we think an upside movement in the near future could be expected.

Resistance: 1800

Support: 1748, 1704, 1670

Economic Data

US stocks declined lower on Monday, surrendered their early gains and ended a choppy session lower after two Federal Reserve officials highlighted the central bank’s resolve to be persistent until it brings inflation down meaningfully. Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard said that it would be appropriate soon for the central bank to slow its pace of interest-rate hikes, which provided some support to the market sentiment. However, she further emphasized that the Fed had additional work to do to bring inflation down, keeping some investors on the edge.

Meanwhile, market players struggled to digest negative news coming from China,  as the country keeps reporting record coronavirus contagions in Beijing and other big cities. The concerns about stricter lockdowns and the interruption of global shipments exerted bearish pressure on equity markets.

On the Eurozone front, the data released on Monday showed a bigger-than-expected increase in Industrial Production. The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data today will also be important as the economy is facing the turbulence of soaring inflation, energy crisis, and supply chain bottlenecks due to Russia-Ukraine tensions.

The benchmarks, S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average both retreated lower on Monday as the S&P 500 snapped a two-day rally and treasury yields climbed. The S&P 500 was down 0.9% on a daily basis and the Dow Jones Industrial Average also dropped slightly with a 0.6% loss for the day.

Ten out of eleven sectors in the S&P 500 stayed in negative territory as the Real Estate sector and the Consumer Discretionary sector are the worst performing among all groups, losing 2.65% and 1.71%, respectively. The Nasdaq 100 meanwhile dropped the most with a 1.0% loss on Monday and the MSCI World index was up 1.8% for the day.

Main Pairs Movement

The US dollar advanced higher on Monday, regaining upside momentum and enjoyed some temporal demand at the beginning of the week amid mixed market sentiment. The anxiety ahead of the US midterm elections is providing some support to the safe-haven greenback, but the upside is restricted due to rising odds for a slowdown in the pace of rate hikes by the Federal Reserve (Fed). Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard also supported the view of reducing the pace of policy tightening.

GBP/USD retreated lower on Monday with a 0.63% loss after the cable faced barricades around the 1.1800 level and dropped towards 1.1750 ahead of UK Employment/Autumn Statement. On the UK front, the contents of the UK Autumn Budget Statement from Chancellor Jeremy Hunt will be watched closely by investors. Meanwhile, EUR/USD remained under pressure and struggle around the 1.0330 area amid a stronger US dollar across the board. The pair was down almost 0.20% for the day.

Gold was nearly unchanged with a 0.01% gain for the day after climbing higher to a fresh three-month high around the $1,774 mark during the US session, as the yellow metal continues to garner demand as investors expect the Fed would ease off on a big interest rate hike.

Meanwhile, WTI Oil declined sharply with a 3.47% loss for the day amid negative Chinese news.

Technical Analysis

EURUSD (4-Hour Chart)

The EURUSD pair eases from a three-month high of 1.0363 on Monday as risk appetite cooled at the beginning of the new week. The pair was trading at the 1.0330 area at the time of writing, as investors keep a close eye on comments from central bankers, which, in turn, allows the US Dollar to hold its ground and limits the pair’s upside. In the Eurozone, Industrial Production was up by 0.9% MoM in September, also rising by 4.9% compared to a year earlier and beating market expectations. Moreover, there are growing hopes tensions between Russia and Ukraine could soon ease after Moscow retreated and Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy noted the country is ready for peace. However, the news should be taken with a pinch of salt, as it seems quite unlikely Russia will back from the separatist regions.

From the technical perspective, the four-hour scale RSI indicator remained above 70 figured as of writing, which suggested that the pair was still amid strong upside traction, but needed to be cautious about the corrective pullback. As for the Bollinger Bands, the euro was pricing in the higher area, above the 20-period moving average. Therefore, we think the positive buying would persist unless the price dropped below the 20-period moving average or the 1.0163 support.

Resistance: 1.0610, 1.0368

Support: 1.0163, 0.9951, 0.9730

GBPUSD (4-Hour Chart)

The GBPUSD has lost its recovery momentum after reaching above 1.1800 earlier in the day and retreated below 1.1750, with investors taking a step back and reassessing the market situation following last week’s risk rally. While commenting on the market reaction to the soft October Consumer Price Index data, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller pushed back against optimism by saying that markets were “way out in front.” Waller added that the 7.7% annual CPI was still “enormous.” In the absence of high-impact macroeconomic data releases, market participants will pay close attention to what Fed officials say. In case safe-haven flows return to markets and Wall Street’s main indices turned south after last week’s impressive upsurge, the US Dollar could keep its footing and limit the British pound’s upside room and vice versa. In the domestic, investors could refrain from making large bets while waiting for the UK government to unveil its budget plan on Thursday. Chancellor Jeremy told the BBC on Sunday that he has been completely explicit that taxes are going to go up.

From the technical perspective, the four-hour scale RSI indicator slightly edged lower to 62 figured as of writing, suggesting that the pair witnessed less buying than last week. As for the Bollinger Bands, the pair was still pricing above the 20-period moving average, which is a signal that the pair was more favoured to the upside path. As a result, the price remained the positive tendency but the strength is mild unless there are any surprising events or breaking through the critical resistance/ support levels.

Resistance: 1.1901, 1.2157

Support: 1.1639, 1.1353, 1.1140

XAUUSD (4-Hour Chart)

The gold started the day with a soft tone and declined to an intraday low of $1753 and was trading at $1775 at the moment of writing, as the American Dollar recovered some ground on Monday but quickly resumed its decline ahead of the US opening as investors keep moving away from it. The financial markets are quieter following two days of wild price action spurred by signs of easing inflation in the United States. The October Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose at an annual pace of 7.7%, much lower than the 8% anticipated by the market or the record peak of 9.1% from last June. Investors rushed to drop the US Dollar amid the mounting speculations that the Federal Reserve will pivot on the monetary policy in their upcoming December meeting. Apart from this, US President Joe Biden met with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping. The versions of the outcome differ by country. On the one hand, Biden said that they are not looking for conflict and that there will not be a new Cold War. On the other hand, Chinese media reported that President Xi warned the US about crossing a “red line” in Taiwan.

From the technical perspective, the four-hour scale RSI indicator remained above 70 figured as of writing, suggesting that the gold has preserved its upside strength, but market anticipants needed to be cautious of a corrective pullback. As for the Bollinger Bands, the yellow metal was pricing in the upper area. Therefore, we think an upside movement in the near future could be expected.

Resistance: 1802, 1857

Support: 1748, 1704, 1658

Economic Data

US stocks advanced higher on Friday, preserving their upside momentum and extending the rally amid a slowdown in inflation and the upbeat market mood on the last trading day of the week. The risk-on sentiment is mainly supported by the soft inflation data from the US and news of China easing the Covid-related restrictions, as the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) declined to 7.7% yearly in October.

The probability of a 50 basis points Fed rate hike in December jumped above 80% from 50% earlier in the week after the readings came in below market expectations. On top of that, China’s National Health Commission announced that they have decided to reduce the required quarantine times for travellers and people who had close contact with identified Covid cases, supporting the risk-positive market environment. On the Eurozone front, the hawkish stance from European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers acted as a tailwind for the Euro, as ECB member Robert Holtzman said he would vote for a 50 or 75 bps hike at the December meeting.

The benchmarks, S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average both advanced higher on Friday as the S&P 500 closed near session highs in the biggest weekly gain since June. The S&P 500 was up 0.9% daily and the Dow Jones Industrial Average also advanced slightly with a 0.1% gain for the day. Six out of eleven sectors in the S&P 500 stayed in positive territory as the Energy sector and the Communication Services sector are the best performing among all groups, rising 3.06% and 2.47%, respectively. The Nasdaq 100 meanwhile climbed the most with a 1.8% gain on Friday and the MSCI World index was up 1.9% for the day.

Main Pairs Movement

The US dollar tumbled sharply on Friday, extending its previous slide and dropped to a daily low below 106.5 in the late US trading session as the upbeat market mood continue to dominate financial markets. The expectations for a slowdown in the Federal Reserve (Fed) tightening cycle following the CPI release continued to exert bearish pressure on the greenback, which extended its losses to four consecutive weeks. Investors are beginning to price in a less hawkish Fed and a 50 bps rate hike in December.

GBP/USD advanced higher on Friday with a 0.97% gain after the cable appreciated to fresh multi-month highs above the 1.1850 mark amid upbeat UK data. On the UK front, the UK’s GDP contracted less than expected in Q3 and allowed the pair to extend its sharp two-day rally. Meanwhile, EUR/USD finished the week on a higher note and surged above the 1.0350 mark amid a weaker US dollar across the board. The pair was up almost 1.35% for the day.

Gold climbed higher with a 0.90% gain for the day after refreshing its two-month high and extended its rally towards the $1,770 mark during the late US session, as the release of a soft US Consumer Price Index in October weighed on the US Dollar and provided support for the precious metal. Meanwhile, WTI Oil advanced sharply with a 2.88% gain for the day following China’s easing Covid-19 restrictions.

Technical Analysis

EURUSD (4-Hour Chart)

The EURUSD has extended its rally and climbed to its highest level in three months above 1.0320 as of writing following the impressive gains on Thursday. The safe-haven US Dollar remains in its post-CPI downtrend as risk flows continue to dominate the financial markets ahead of the weekend. After the data from the US showed on Thursday that the annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) declined to 7.7% in October from 8.2% in September, the USD suffered heavy losses against its major rivals. The US Dollar Index dropped 2.3% on Thursday, registering one of the largest one-day losses of 2022.  Now, investors continued to scale back 75 basis points (bps) Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike bets in December on soft inflation report and the benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield fell more than 10%. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are currently pricing in an 80% chance of a smaller, 50 bps, rate hike at the last FOMC meeting of the year.

From the technical perspective, the four-hour scale RSI indicator dramatically extended advanced to the overbought zone 75 figured as of writing, suggesting that the pair was surrounded by strong upside traction and investors need to be cautious about any possible pullback soon. As for the Bollinger Bands, the pair was surging along with the upper band and the size between upper and lower bands became larger, signalling the pair amid a strong bullish tendency.

Resistance: 1.0615, 1.0774

Support: 1.0167, 0.9961, 0.9730

GBPUSD (4-Hour Chart)

The GBPUSD has preserved its bullish momentum and advanced toward the 1.1800 level as of writing, with risk flows continuing to impact asset valuations, the pair looks to extend its rally despite having turned overbought in the short term. The data published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics revealed on Thursday that the Consumer Price Index declined to 7.7% yearly in October from 8.2% in September. Moreover, the Core CPI, which excluded food and volatile energy price, edged lower to 6.3% from 6.6%, coming in below the market expectation of 6.5%. The safe-haven greenback tumbled by more than 2% on Thursday, as investors assessed the soft inflation data as an opportunity to unwind USD longs. Apart from this, the UK’s Office for National Statistics reported that the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expanded at an annualized rate of 2.4% in the third quarter. This print came in better than the market forecast of 2.1% and helped the Pound Sterling, which has already been benefiting from the improving market mood, gather more strength.

From the technical perspective, the four-hour scale RSI indicator dramatically extended and rallied to 70, the overbought area, figured as of writing. Is suggests that the pair was surrounded by a strong upside tilt and investors need to be careful about the expected pullback soon. As for the Bollinger Bands, the pair was moving upward along with the upper band and the size between the upper and lower bands became larger, signalling the pair amid strong upward momentum.

Resistance: 1.1438, 1.1623

Support: 1.1634, 1.1334, 1.1123

XAUUSD (4-Hour Chart)

Gold continues to push higher and traded above the $1760 mark for the first time in nearly three months on Friday, as investors cheer the soft US inflation report. The Consumer Price Index in the United States rose 7.7% YoY, down from 8.2% in September and clearly below the 8.0% consensus forecast. The CPI accelerated by only 0.4% on the month, down from 0.6% in September and core figures rose 0.3%, rather than the 0.5% expected. The highly anticipated economic release from the United States triggered a massive risk rally on increased expectations of a smaller rate hike by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) in December. Markets now price roughly an 81% probability of a 50 bps December Fed rate hike vs. odds of about 55% at the start of the week. Furthermore, the slump in the US Treasury bond yields and the dovish comments from the Federal Reserve policymakers on Thursday further exacerbated the pain in the greenback. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yields plunged over 30 bps to 3.811%, falling below the psychological 4% level on the US CPI release. The sell-off in the US Treasury yields boded well for the non-interest-bearing Gold price.

From the technical perspective, the four-hour scale RSI indicator remained in the overbought zone of  78 figures as of writing, suggesting that the XAUUSD is amid crazily bullish momentum and investors need to notice any possible pullback. As for the Bollinger Bands, the gold was pricing along with the upper band, which is a signal that the yellow metal in the near-term would persist the positive traction.

Resistance: 1802, 1857

Support: 1748, 1702, 1660

The US Federal Reserve will weigh this week’s Retail Sales and PPI data against last week’s lower-than-expected inflation figures as it determines whether to raise its benchmark interest rate by 50bps or 75bps at its December meeting.

Here are the highlights for the week ahead:

RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (15 November)

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) increased its cash rate to 2.85% at its November meeting, the sixth consecutive increase.

RBA reiterated its commitment to bringing inflation back to target levels and stated that it would do everything in its power to accomplish it. The incoming data will affect the size and timing of rate hikes.

US Empire State Manufacturing Index (15 November)

October’s NY Empire State Manufacturing Index dropped 7.6 points to -9.1, a third consecutive month of negative growth.

Industry experts believe that business conditions will remain the same over the next six months. Meanwhile, this month, data is projected to decrease to -12 points.

US Producer Price Index (15 November)

US PPI for final demand rose 0.4% month-on-month in September 2022, reversing three consecutive months of decline.

Analysts expect that the index will increase by another 0.3% in October.

UK Consumer Price Index (16 November)

In September, the UK’s inflation rate rose to 10.1% from 9.9% in August, returning to 40-year highs seen in July.

According to analysts, they can foresee October’s annual CPI to be higher than 10.4%.

Canada Consumer Price Index (16 November)

According to the latest data, the Consumer Price Index in Canada increased by 0.10% in September 2022 over the previous month. 

Further increases are predicted for October.

US Retail Sales (16 November)

In September 2022, retail sales in the US held steady as high inflation and rising borrowing costs dampened consumer demand.

Retail sales are projected to increase by 0.8% in October.

Australia Employment Data (17 November)

Employment in Australia increased by 900 in September to a record high of 13.59 million. The unemployment rate held steady at 3.5%. Analysts expect employment to rise by 32,000 in October.

Analysts predict that employment will rise by 32,000 in October, and the unemployment rate will be 3.4%.

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US stocks rebounded sharply on Thursday, regaining upside momentum and surged in a buy-everything relief rally as market participants rushed to price in a pivot in the US Federal Reserve monetary policy as soon as next December.

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Thursday that inflation in the US, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), declined to 7.7% on a yearly basis in October from 8% in September. The CPI data came in below the market forecast of 8% and spurred bets the Federal Reserve can downshift its aggressive rate-hike path. Therefore, risk-on flows came back to life and provided strong support to the equity markets. Markets are now pricing in an 80% probability of a 50 basis points rate hike in December following the upbeat US CPI report.

On the Eurozone front, the European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers remained hawkish amid rising recession fears, as they said on Thursday that there is no time for monetary policy to pause and the central bank needs to raise rates into restrictive territory.

The benchmarks, S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average both surged higher on Thursday as the S&P 500 performed its best first-day reaction to a CPI report since at least 2003 when records began. The S&P 500 was up 5.5% on a daily basis and the Dow Jones Industrial Average also advanced sharply with a 3.7% gain for the day. All eleven sectors in S&P 500 stayed in positive territory as the Information Technology sector and the Real Estate sector are the best performings among all groups, rising 8.33% and 7.74%, respectively. The Nasdaq 100 meanwhile surged the most with a 7.5% gain on Thursday and the MSCI World index was up 4.5% for the day.

Main Pairs Movement

The US dollar suffered heavy losses on Thursday, plummeted lower against all of its major rivals and extended its slide to the 108.00 area during the US trading session amid expectations for the US Federal Reserve to pivot. Optimism returned and the risk-on market mood exerted bearish pressure on the safe-haven greenback as the US Treasury yields shed over 20 bps. Increasing speculations that the Fed might slow the pace of rate hikes were further confirmed by investors’ reactions following the CPI data.

GBP/USD soared sharply on Thursday with a 3.15% gain after the cable touched a two-month high at around 1.1680 level following a cooler-than-expected US inflation report. On the UK front, the UK’s GDP for the third quarter is scheduled to release on Friday, which would shed some light on the status of the British economy. Meanwhile, EUR/USD staged a goodish rebound and surged above the 1.0200 mark amid a weaker US dollar across the board. The pair was up almost 2.00% for the day.

Gold rallied higher with a 2.85% gain for the day after shrugging off the soft tone and surged to a two-week high above the $1,755 mark during the late US session, as the broad-based US Dollar weakness acted as a tailwind for the precious metal. Meanwhile, WTI Oil edged higher with a 0.75% gain for the day amid mixed demand-supply concerns.

Technical Analysis

EURUSD (4-Hour Chart)

The EURUSD has gathered bullish momentum and climbed to its highest level in nearly two months above 1.018 level as of writing on Thursday, as the data from the US inflation data showed better-than-expected figures. Tuesday’s US economic docket highlights the release of the critical US consumer inflation for October. On a monthly basis, the headline CPI rose by 0.4% during the reported month as compared to the market’s expected 0.6%. The yearly rate, however, rose by 7.7% and is expected to ease to 8.0% in October. EURUSD regains upside traction on the back of the collapse in the dollar after US inflation figures advanced less than estimated in October, which the speculations that the Fed will slow down the pace of hiking rates mounted. In the meantime, the greenback fell sharply below the 109.00 support level and traded in levels last seen back in mid-September in the 108.50 bands.

From the technical perspective, the four-hour scale RSI indicator surged to 67 as of writing, suggesting that the pair was surrounded by strong positive traction. As for the Bollinger Bands, the euro was priced above the upper band and the size became larger, which is a signal that the bullish momentum would persist and had the chance to challenge the highest level since mid-September, 1.0198,  in the near term.

Resistance: 1.0198

Support: 0.9996, 0.9961, 0.9741

GBPUSD (4-Hour Chart)

GBPUSD surged in the second half of the day on Thursday and reached its highest level since mid-September above 1.16650 following the release of the softer-than-expected, the pair was pricing at 1.16670 level as of writing.  The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the headline CPI rose 0.4% in October and the yearly rate eased to 7.7% from 8.2% in September, both missing expectations. Additional details revealed the core inflation, which excluded food and energy prices, decelerated more than anticipated to a 6.3% YoY rate from 6.6% previous. The data adds to the bets that the Federal Reserve will slow the pace of its policy tightening and drags the US Dollar to a fresh multi-week low. This, in turn, is seen as a key factor behind the GBPUSD pair’s sharp rally during the early US trading session. However, a bleak outlook for the UK economy might continue to undermine the British Pound. As a result, the focus now shifts to the Preliminary UK Q3 GDP report, due on Friday. The key UK macro data should provide a fresh directional impetus to the GBPUSD pair.

From the technical perspective, the four-hour scale RSI indicator dramatically rallied to 65 figures as if writing, suggesting that the pair amid strong bullish momentum. As for the Bollinger Bands, the pair was pricing around the upper band and the size between upper and lower bands get larger, indicating that the pair was more favoured to the upside movement in the near future to challenge the highest level since mid-September 1.1738.

Resistance: 1.1438, 1.1623

Support: 1.1146, 1.0953, 1.0797

XAUUSD (4-Hour Chart)

Gold has shrugged off the soft tone seen earlier today to rally $40 higher and reach the mid-range of the $1700s and had been boosted by the broad-based US Dollar weakness following the release of US inflation data. Consumer inflation rose at a slower-than-expected pace in the US, which has set the scene for the US Federal Reserve to ease its aggressive monetary policy path. Tish has spurred risk appetite, hammering the US Dollar and pushing yellow metal higher. US CPI increased by 0.4% in October, unchanged from the previous month, against the market expectations of a 0.6% reading, according to data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. Year on year, the CPI cooled down to a 7.7% rate, beyond the consensus of 8%, and after an 8.2% increase in September. As for the core part, the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge for inflationary trends has eased to 0.3% in October, from 0.6% in September, against expectations of a 0.5% increase. Year on year, the core CPI has retreated to 6.3% from 6.6% in September.

From the technical perspective, the four-hour scale RSI indicator hugely advanced to 78 figures as of writing, suggesting that the XAUUSD has entered into the overbought zone, and a downward correction could be expected.  As for the Bollinger Bands, the gold was priced around the upper band and the size between upper and lower got larger, which is a signal that the pair remain strong upside tilt. Therefore, we think the gold would move up to challenge the $1765 mark, then correctively rebound to the $1700 to $1710 area in the near term.

Resistance: 1765, 1802

Support: 1703, 1667, 1642

Economic Data

US stocks tumbled heavily on Wednesday, failing to preserve their upside traction and witnessing heavy selling pressure as renewed selling in cryptocurrencies and disappointing earnings weighed on risk sentiment ahead of a key US inflation report.

Global equity markets sensed an intense sell-off amid headwinds of the US mid-term elections outcome and upside risks from the inflationary pressures. Investors’ attention now shifts toward the closely watched US inflation report due Thursday after midterm elections failed to deliver a Republican sweep.

The headline US CPI is expected to decline to 8.0% meanwhile providing clues on the path of Federal Reserve policy tightening. on the Eurozone front, the European Central Bank (ECB) has conducted a survey of consumer expectations for inflation, which indicated that Consumers still see inflation at 3% in 3 years and 5.1% over the next 12 months. The higher inflation is hurting the households’ sentiment.

The benchmarks, S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average both declined lower on Wednesday as the S&P 500 ended its three-day rally and Bitcoin dropped below $16,000 to a level not seen since 2020 amid a deepening selloff in cryptocurrencies. The S&P 500 was down 2.1% daily and the Dow Jones Industrial Average also dropped lower with a 1.9% loss for the day. All eleven sectors in S&P 500 stayed in negative territory as the Energy sector and the Consumer Discretionary sector is the worst performing among all groups, losing 4.88% and 3.12%, respectively. The Nasdaq 100 meanwhile slumped the most with a 2.4% loss on Wednesday and the MSCI World index was down 1.6% for the day.

Main Pairs Movement

The US dollar advanced higher on Wednesday, regaining upside momentum and rebounded firmly to the 110.50 area during the US trading session amid an improvement in safe-haven’s appeal. However, the 10-year US Treasury yields witnessed a steel fall below 4.10% as odds are favouring a rate hike of 50 basis points (bps) by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in its December monetary policy meeting. On Thursday, the US inflation figures will remain in the spotlight.

GBP/USD was sharply down on Wednesday with a 1.61% loss after the cable extended its intra-day slide to the 1.1340 mark amid the market’s anxiety ahead of the US inflation report. On the UK front, Prime Minister (PM) Rishi Sunak will become the first British prime minister in 15 years to attend the British-Irish Council summit on Thursday. Meanwhile, EUR/USD remained under pressure and retreated towards the 1.0000 mark amid a stronger US dollar across the board. The pair was down almost 0.63% for the day.

Gold dropped with a 0.33% loss for the day after surrendering its entire Wednesday’s gains near the $1,714 mark with the risk sentiment turning sour heading to the close, as the recovering US dollar undermined the precious metal. Meanwhile, WTI Oil was sharply down with a 3.46% loss for the day amid rising odds for the higher peak of the Federal Reserve (Fed)’s terminal rate.

Technical Analysis

EURUSD (4-Hour Chart)

The EURUSD remains on the back foot and trades below 1.0050 in the early American session, as the US Dollar benefits from safe-haven flows mid-week with investors awaiting the outcome of the US Midterm Elections. The results of the midterm elections, which are yet to be completed, are showing Democrats doing better than anticipated, taking one more seat in the Senate, lost by the GOP. However, the ruling party lost two seats in the House, securing so far 172 vs 199 for the opposition. On the other hand, the stock market edged lower and struggled for a clear direction. Most European indexes trade in red, although losses are limited. Meanwhile, Wall Street is set to open little changed from Tuesday’s closing levels. Apart from this, investors were keeping their eyes on the US Consumer Price Index to be out on Thursday. Inflation is expected to have risen at an annual pace of 8% in October, easing from 8.2% in the previous month.

From the technical perspective, the four-hour scale RSI indicator edged lower to 61 figured as of writing, suggesting that the positive traction has turned weaker. As for the Bollinger Bands, the pair was pricing in the upper area and found support near the 20-period moving average with a smaller size between upper and lower bands, signalling that the price has not found a clear direction and tends to put into sideway in the near-term.

Resistance:  1.0095, 1.0198

Support: 0.9996, 0.9852, 0.9730

GBPUSD (4-Hour Chart)

The GBPUSD extended its losses and dropped to a fresh daily low below 1.1400 in the second half of the day on Wednesday. The risk-averse market environment provides a boost to the safe-haven US dollar as investors await the outcome of the US Midterm Elections. Investors seem to be staying on the sidelines while awaiting the outcome of the US Midterm Elections. The latest news has shown better-than-expected results for the Democrats as the “red wave” announced by the media has not crystallized, and according to Associated Press, Democrats and Republicans have 46 and 47 Senate seats, respectively, with 5 seats remaining out of 35 called up for election. The final results, however, might still take some time, and key issues like the control of Congress and Biden’s next year agenda are still uncertain. Apart from this, the Consumer Price Index data, due on Thursday, might provide further insight into the size of the Federal Reserve’s next interest rate hike. Any surprise in these readings might boost Dollar volatility.

From the technical perspective, the four-hour scale RSI indicator slid to 44 figures as of writing, suggesting that the pair was surrounded by bearish transactions. As for the Bollinger Bands, the pounds were priced below the 20-moving average and the size between upper and lower bands get smaller, which is a signal that the pair was more favoured to the downside path.

Resistance: 1.1438, 1.1623

Support: 1.1146, 1.0953, 1.0797

XAUUSD (4-Hour Chart)

Gold edged lower for the day and was trying to stabilise above the $1710 mark as of writing, as the American Dollar regather strength during the US trading session as investors turn cautious amid growing worries about a deeper global economic downturn and uncertainty over the release of US Consumer Price Index and the outcome of the US Midterm Election. The US Dollar attracts some buying and moves away from its lowest level since September 20 touched the previous day, which, in turn, is seen as a key factor weighing on the dollar-denominated gold. Despite rising bets for a less aggressive policy tightening by the Fed, the markets are still pricing in the possibility of at least a 50 bps rate hike in December. This remains supportive of the elevated US Treasury bond yield and offers some support for the greenback. That said, the cautious market mood underpinned the safe-haven gold and might limit further losses, at least for the time being.

From the technical perspective, the four-hour scale RSI indicator slightly fell back to 64 figured, suggesting that the strong bullish momentum has been softer. As for the Bollinger Bands, the yellow metal was pricing between the upper band and 20-period moving average and put into sideway, which is a signal that the upside tendency is mild and weak. Therefore, if there are any surprising events, the direction would easily change downwardly.

Resistance: 1715, 1725, 1745

Support: 1675, 1641, 1615

Economic Data

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