The S&P 500 experienced a 0.3% decline driven by concerns over rising Treasury yields and upcoming remarks from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. The decline was also impacted by a drop in banking and retail shares. The Dow Jones Industrial Average followed suit, slipping by 0.5% to 34,288.83, while the Nasdaq Composite managed a small gain at 13,505.87. Notably, Nvidia’s stock dipped 2.9%, offsetting an earlier increase.

Bank ratings adjustments and challenging operating conditions caused several banks, both regional and larger, to witness declines. Consequently, the financial sector saw a 0.9% drop, making it the day’s poorest-performing sector within the S&P 500. Major banks like KeyCorp, Comerica, and JPMorgan Chase faced declines of 4.1% and 2.1% respectively. Meanwhile, Dick’s Sporting Goods and Macy’s tumbled by 24% and 14%, leading to a downward trajectory for the SPDR S&P Retail ETF. Nike also recorded over a 1% slide, marking its ninth successive daily loss. Wall Street’s attention has been on the bond market, particularly the 10-year Treasury yield, which reached its highest point since 2007 during the week. The yield dipped slightly to 4.33% on Tuesday.

Market analysts anticipate a continued market pullback. They point to the influence of climbing yields and a cautious consumer sentiment as drivers of this trend. Investors are eagerly awaiting Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole economic symposium on Friday, which is expected to provide insights into the central bank’s future monetary policy decisions.

Data by Bloomberg

On Tuesday, most sectors experienced a slight decline, with the overall market slipping by 0.28%. The Real Estate sector managed a 0.28% gain, while Utilities and Communication Services saw increases of 0.26% and 0.18% respectively. On the positive side, Consumer Discretionary showed a marginal uptick of 0.09%. However, several sectors faced losses, including Energy and Financials, which saw declines of 0.77% and 0.88% respectively. The Consumer Staples sector had the largest drop at 0.53%, followed by Health Care at 0.37%, Information Technology at 0.24%, and Industrials at 0.20%.

Major Pair Movement

The dollar index exhibited a 0.24% increase, led by a 0.36% decline in EUR/USD, pushing the euro close to breaking its pivotal lows from July. The possibility of this break is tied to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s upcoming speech at Jackson Hole and the potential for its content to align with statements from Richmond Fed President Barkin. Despite a temporary alleviation from recent events that might have contributed to the Treasury yield’s retreat from post-GFC highs, the 2-year bund-Treasury yield spreads hit new lows for 2023. This shift coincided with the Treasury curve inverting further due to the attraction of high 10-year yields and short-covering. Barkin’s comments, which deviated from his generally dovish stance, introduced the risk that Powell could emphasize relative U.S. economic strength and the importance of achieving the Fed’s 2% inflation mandate.

The uncertainty centers on the potential length of elevated interest rates by the Fed and the implications for inflation. The conversation also includes evaluating the impact of China’s economic challenges. Jens Eskelund, President of [unspecified institution], weighed in on these matters. Despite the Fed’s stance based on strong economic growth and a tight labor market, both S&P and Moody’s have expressed concerns, leading to a market prediction of almost 100 basis points of Fed rate cuts next year, coinciding with one of the most rapid rate increases in decades. The USD/JPY pair dropped by 0.25%, reflecting a retreat in Treasury yields, while sterling faced a 0.13% decline due to factors including the dollar’s broader rebound from Barkin’s comments and an equities pullback. USD/CNH saw a 0.22% rise, in contrast to USD/CNY’s 0.09% gain. The focus now shifts to the global PMIs scheduled for Wednesday and Powell’s upcoming presentation on Friday.

Picks of the Day Analysis

EUR/USD (4 Hours)

EUR/USD Hits Mid-June Lows Amidst Dollar’s Strength and Economic Concerns

The EUR/USD currency pair experienced a significant drop, marking its lowest daily close since mid-June. The decline came after a brief two-day recovery, highlighting the persistent pressure on the pair driven by a strong US Dollar. The Eurozone’s current account surplus of €35.8 billion in June, attributed to reduced imports due to lower energy prices, is juxtaposed against expectations of a slight dip in the August PMI composite index. The Eurozone’s economic concerns are further fueled by a cautious market atmosphere, contrasting the robustness of the US economy. As the US Dollar Index (DXY) surged above 103.50 and US Treasury yields rose, data from the US housing market added to the narrative. Attention now turns to the forthcoming Jackson Hole Symposium, where addresses by Federal Reserve Chair Powell and European Central Bank President Lagarde are eagerly anticipated.

Chart EURUSD by TradingView

According to technical analysis, the EUR/USD moved lower on Tuesday and managed to reach the lower band of the Bollinger Bands. Currently, the price is slightly above the lower band of the Bollinger Bands. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently stands at 39, indicating that the EUR/USD is currently back in a bearish mode.

Resistance: 1.0935, 1.1038

Support: 1.0837, 1.0789

XAU/USD (4 Hours)

XAU/USD‘s Volatile Rally Amidst Dollar’s Rebound and Market Uncertainty

The XAU/USD currency pair experienced a fluctuating rally, surging to $1,904.44 in London trading before reversing due to renewed US Dollar demand, prompted by S&P Global Ratings’ downgrade of US bank ratings following a similar move by Moody’s. Equities maintained a bullish tone as Wall Street and European indexes held onto gains despite retracements from intraday highs, and XAU/USD recovered from its low of $1,889.12. The Dollar’s performance was influenced by rising government bond yields, with the 10-year Treasury note hitting 4.366% and the 2-year note reaching 5.01%. Market unease prevailed ahead of the Jackson Hole Symposium, where speeches by US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde are anticipated.

Chart XAUUSD by TradingView

Based on technical analysis, the XAU/USD moved higher on Tuesday and was able to reach the upper band of the Bollinger Bands. Currently, the price is moving just below the upper band of the Bollinger Bands. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 55, indicating that the XAU/USD pair is now in a neutral stance with a slight bull mode.

Resistance: $1,907, $1,916

Support: $1,896, $1,885

Economic Data

U.S. stock futures held steady after a month marked by losses across major indices, as the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 finally halted their four-day negative streak. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped slightly by 0.1%, while S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures also saw marginal declines of the same magnitude. During the main trading session, the Nasdaq Composite posted its most significant gain of the month, surging by 1.6%, and the S&P 500 recorded a nearly 0.7% increase. Impressively, these advances occurred even as the 10-year Treasury yield reached its highest level since November 2007, climbing by around 9 basis points to 4.34%. This simultaneous rise of tech-heavy stocks and yields drew attention in Wall Street, where the historically challenging relationship between tech shares and higher interest rates was defied. Despite the current optimism, analysts remain cautious, highlighting potential vulnerabilities associated with the recent Treasury yield surge, including impacts on refinancing and concerns for tech and growth stocks with high price-to-earnings ratios.

Looking ahead, market watchers await crucial corporate earnings releases from prominent retail giants Lowe’s and Macy’s, as well as Nvidia, a significant tech gainer that plays a pivotal role in gauging sentiment within the AI sector. Economic data releases, such as the Philadelphia Fed’s nonmanufacturing survey, Richmond Fed’s manufacturing survey results, and July’s existing home sales data, will also be scrutinized for insights into the health of the economy. Additionally, all eyes are on Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s forthcoming remarks at Jackson Hole, expected to provide further clarity on the central bank’s perspective regarding inflation trends. This context underscores the delicate balancing act investors face as they assess the interplay between market performance, interest rates, and economic indicators in the months ahead.

Data by Bloomberg

On Monday, the overall market displayed a positive trend with all sectors collectively gaining 0.69%. The Information Technology sector led the way with an impressive surge of 2.26%, followed by Consumer Discretionary at 1.15% and Communication Services at 0.80%. Health Care experienced a marginal uptick of 0.09%, while Materials and Financials saw minimal gains of 0.02% and -0.09% respectively. On the other hand, Industrials and Utilities witnessed slight declines of -0.14% and -0.60%, while Energy, Consumer Staples, and Real Estate faced more substantial decreases, sliding by -0.62%, -0.64%, and -0.88% respectively.

Major Pair Movement

On Monday, the US Dollar faced a slight decline as major currency pairs remained relatively stable due to a lack of significant macroeconomic events. Market sentiment stayed negative, causing government bond yields to rise. The US Treasury yield reached its highest point since 2007, reflecting concerns that global central banks might extend monetary tightening measures to control inflation.

China continued to face challenges, with reports showing a continued decline in government land sales revenue for the 19th consecutive month in July. The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) made a minor expected adjustment by reducing the one-year Loan Prime Rate by 10 basis points to 3.45%. However, this fell short of more aggressive expectations, causing the Yuan to weaken. UBS also lowered China’s 2023 real GDP growth forecast from 5.2% to 4.8%.

The German Bundesbank’s monthly report indicated that inflation might persist above central bank targets for a while, while Q3 growth is predicted to remain largely flat.

Currency pairs displayed varied trends: EUR/USD struggled to surpass 1.0900, GBP/USD appeared better positioned for gains at around 1.2740, the Australian Dollar gained against the US Dollar alongside rising Gold prices, and USD/CAD rose due to decreased oil prices impacting the Canadian Dollar.

USD/JPY traded above 146.00 and near its recent high of 146.53, with growing speculation that the Bank of Japan might need to adjust its ultra-loose monetary policy soon.

The upcoming week’s macroeconomic calendar had limited offerings, with attention turning to the Jackson Hole Symposium starting next Thursday. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde were scheduled to speak on Friday, raising anticipation for potential hints about future policy decisions.

Picks of the Day Analysis

EUR/USD (4 Hours)

EUR/USD Holds Near 1.0900 Amid USD Struggles and Chinese Woes

The EUR/USD pair remains steady around 1.0900 as the US Dollar faces challenges despite a sour mood. Asian stocks dip due to ongoing Chinese real estate concerns, while the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) cuts rates as expected, impacting the Yuan. Global bond yields rise, led by the US 10-year Treasury note hitting a 2007 high. Germany sees mixed economic news, with Producer Price Index (PPI) decline but Bundesbank’s caution on inflation. Upcoming data includes Euro Zone’s June Current Account and US July Existing Home Sales and August Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, alongside insights from Fed officials.

Chart EURUSD by TradingView

According to technical analysis, the EUR/USD moved higher on Monday and managed to reach the upper band of the Bollinger Bands. Currently, the price is slightly below the upper band of the Bollinger Bands. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently stands at 51, indicating that the EUR/USD is currently back in a neutral stance.

Resistance: 1.0935, 1.1038

Support: 1.0865, 1.0789

XAU/USD (4 Hours)

XAU/USD Recovers Briefly as USD Strengthens Amid Economic Uncertainties

Spot Gold hit a low of $1,884.77 on Monday before recovering slightly as XAU/USD responded to reduced US Dollar demand, eventually stabilizing around $1,890. The USD rebounded due to a deteriorating market sentiment, causing US indexes to dip and government bond yields, including the 10-year Treasury note, to surge to their highest levels since 2007, with the 2-year note nearing 5%. Growing concerns about a potential economic setback persist as global central banks remain cautious about ending the ongoing monetary tightening cycle, and worries intensify due to China’s currency struggles and limited action. The macroeconomic calendar offers little this week, heightening anticipation for insights from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde at the Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday, as investors seek guidance on future directions.

Chart XAUUSD by TradingView

Based on technical analysis, the XAU/USD moved higher on Monday and was able to move near the upper band of the Bollinger Bands. Currently, the price is moving just below the upper band of the Bollinger Bands. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 48, indicating that the XAU/USD pair is now in a neutral stance.

Resistance: $1,899, $1,912

Support: $1,892, $1,885

This week, key economic players such as Germany, the UK, and the US will publish their flash manufacturing PMI and flash services PMI figures. These releases have the potential to impact market volatility. We advise traders to stay cautious and keep an eye on the latest updates.

Here are some notable highlights for the week:

Flash Manufacturing PMI for Germany, the UK, and the US (23 August 2023)

Germany’s manufacturing PMI declined from 40.6 in June 2023 to 38.8 in July 2023, marking deteriorating business conditions within the country’s manufacturing sector. This figure for July is also the lowest reading since May 2020.

Meanwhile, the UK’s manufacturing PMI for the same period fell from 46.5 to 45.3. In contrast, the US’ manufacturing PMI for the same period increased from 46.3 to 49.

The next set of data will be released on 23 August. Analysts predicted manufacturing PMIs are 38.6 for Germany, 46.2 for the UK, and 49.5 for the US.

Flash Services PMI for Germany, the UK, and the US (23 August 2023) 

Germany’s services PMI declined from 54.1 in June 2023 to 52.3 in July 2023, indicating the slowest growth in five months. Similarly, the UK’s services PMI declined from 53.7 to 51.5 during this period, making July the third consecutive month of slowing activity across the country’s service sector. Finally, the US’ services PMI also fell from 54.4 to 52.3 during the same period. 

Analysts’ predicted services PMIs for August 2023 are as follows: Germany at 51.5, the UK at 53, and the US at 52.

Germany’s Ifo Business Climate Index (25 August 2023)

Germany’s Ifo Business Climate Index fell for the third consecutive month in July 2023, indicating pessimistic expectations for the coming months. The July figure of 87.3 is also the lowest level since November 2022. 

The figure for August 2023 will be released on 25 August, with analysts expecting a reading of 86.9.

Jackson Hole Economic Symposium (25–27 August 2023) 

The Jackson Hole Economic Symposium is an annual symposium that focuses on key economic issues affecting the world.

Its participants include prominent financial figures and leading market players from all around the globe. Proceedings from the symposium might hence have an impact on market sentiment and movements.

The stock market endured its third consecutive session of decline as investors grappled with the latest earnings reports and economic indicators, compounded by a surge in interest rates to new highs. The Dow Jones Industrial Average experienced a notable drop of 290.91 points, or 0.84%, marking its first close below the 50-day moving average since early June. This downturn raised concerns about a potential downtrend. Similarly, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite also faced losses of 0.77% and 1.17%, respectively, exacerbating the market’s unease.

The unsettling trend was exacerbated by the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield’s climb to levels unseen since October 2022. The rise in rates followed the Federal Reserve’s release of minutes from its July meeting, which highlighted lingering concerns about the risk of inflation surging upward. The market witnessed a mix of outcomes among major companies, with retail giant Walmart’s stock dipping over 2%, despite exceeding expectations for earnings, revenue, and revised annual projections. Conversely, computer networking company Cisco Systems bucked the trend, gaining more than 3% thanks to its better-than-anticipated quarterly earnings report. As the market faced a turbulent August, characterized by losses and a broad index slump of over 4%, analysts like Chris Fasciano from Commonwealth Financial Network acknowledged the pullback as a potentially healthy recalibration after an earlier robust rally.

While some respite was found in the form of lower jobless claims and a positive uptick in the Philadelphia Federal Reserve’s manufacturing index for August, the overarching narrative remained one of caution and uncertainty as investors navigated through the intricate interplay of earnings releases, economic data, and interest rate fluctuations.

Data by Bloomberg

On Thursday, the stock market witnessed a mixed performance across various sectors. Energy saw a notable gain of +1.11%, while materials experienced a slight decline of -0.18%. The utilities and financial sectors also dipped, with losses of -0.33% and -0.50% respectively. Communication services and real estate faced setbacks of -0.59% and -0.75%, while health care and industrials both saw decreases of -0.76% and -0.84%. The information technology sector experienced a larger drop of -0.96%, while consumer staples and consumer discretionary sectors recorded more significant declines of -1.01% and -1.58% respectively.

Major Pair Movement

Amidst risk aversion and rising Treasury yields, the US Dollar surged across the board during the American session. The Dow Jones index faced a third consecutive day of losses, sliding by 0.85% and registering its lowest close in a month. Concerns about China’s economic prospects combined with expectations of prolonged higher interest rates contributed to market unease.

US Treasury yields displayed a mixed performance, with the 10-year yield hitting 4.32%, its highest since 2007, before retracting, while the 30-year yield rose to 4.42%, its peak since 2011. The US Dollar Index ended the day steady at 103.40 after briefly touching two-month highs at 103.59.

US Initial Jobless Claims dropped to 239,000 for the week ending August 12, surpassing expectations. However, Continuing Jobless Claims increased to 1.716 million in the week ending August 5, reaching their highest point in four weeks. The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey provided a positive surprise by climbing from -13.5 to 12.

Looking forward, attention shifted to the upcoming Jackson Hole Symposium, as Friday’s US releases were not anticipated to be top-tier. The EUR/USD initially rose before declining during American trading hours, marking a six-week low. The Japanese Yen recovered ground despite rising government bond yields, benefiting from equity market declines and a slight US Dollar slowdown. GBP/USD experienced significant gains but failed to hold above the 20-day Simple Moving Average, while the Australian jobs report impacted the Aussie’s performance. USD/CAD continued its upward trajectory, and NZD/USD fell before slightly recovering from its lows.

Picks of the Day Analysis

EUR/USD (4 Hours)

EUR/USD Extends Losses Amidst Dollar Strength and Market Caution

During the American session, the EUR/USD currency pair faced its fifth consecutive day of decline, shifting into negative territory. The US Dollar maintained its robust stance, benefiting from risk aversion and higher Treasury yields. Initially rising to approximately 1.0920, the pair later weakened, settling around the 1.0860 range.

The Euro’s initial surge in the American session gave way to a reversal, driven by the diminishing yield difference between US and German bonds, which exerted downward pressure on the EUR/USD. Furthermore, a drop in equity values amplified demand for the US Dollar. Looking ahead, Eurostat is set to release the final July Consumer Price Index, expected to hold no significant surprises with an annual rate of 5.3%. Additionally, Construction Output data for June will also be reported.

The prevailing narrative continues to favor the US Dollar, supported by recent US economic indicators and a climate of general market caution. As such, any potential recoveries in the EUR/USD are likely to be restricted until a shift in market sentiment occurs.

Chart EURUSD by TradingView

Based on technical analysis, the EUR/USD moves lower on Thursday, creating a push for the lower band of the Bollinger Bands. Currently, the price is moving around the middle band of the Bollinger Bands. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) presently stands at 44, signifying that the EUR/USD is currently in a bearish sentiment with a potential to goes back to neutral stance.

Resistance: 1.0935, 1.1038

Support: 1.0865, 1.0789

XAU/USD (4 Hours)

XAU/USD Hits Lowest Levels Since March Amid Gloomy Market Mood and Central Bank Concerns

Gold prices are facing downward pressure, falling to their lowest since March and hovering around the $1,890 mark, as a somber market sentiment persists. The risk-averse stance among investors was triggered by the US Federal Reserve’s recent release of the August meeting minutes, revealing apprehensions regarding inflation risks and potential for further rate hikes. This uncertainty extends beyond the Fed, with the Bank of England hinting at prolonged rate hikes and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand considering potential increases in the future. Amid these central bank concerns, gold’s value remains under strain.

Chart XAUUSD by TradingView

Based on technical analysis, the XAU/USD witnessed a slight decrease on Thursday, the price managed to create a push for the lower band of the Bollinger Bands during this movement. Currently, the price is moving near the middle band of the Bollinger Bands. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 39, indicating that the XAU/USD pair is exhibiting a somewhat bearish sentiment.

Resistance: $1,899, $1,912

Support: $1,892, $1,885

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Stock markets experienced declines on Wednesday as investors absorbed insights from the Federal Reserve’s July meeting, which hinted at the possibility of raising interest rates. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped by 0.52%, concluding at 34,765.74, while the S&P 500 decreased by 0.76% to settle at 4,404.33. The Nasdaq Composite also saw a decline of 1.15%, ending the day at 13,474.63. This marked the second consecutive session of losses for the major indices.

During the July meeting, the Federal Reserve officials discussed the potential need for further tightening of monetary policy to counter ongoing inflation. The meeting summary highlighted that most participants recognized significant upside risks to inflation due to it remaining above the Committee’s longer-term goal. The current federal funds rate lies within a range of 5.25% to 5.5%, reaching its highest point in over two decades. The markets’ reaction to the meeting minutes reflected concerns about the economic backdrop and the potential need to curtail demand in order to achieve price stability. Consequently, market sentiment was impacted, leading to declines across various sectors, with Intel and other industries experiencing notable drops.

Data by Bloomberg

On Wednesday, a broad decline was observed across all sectors of the market, with the overall market dropping by 0.76%. Some sectors managed to buck the trend, with Utilities gaining 0.46%. However, most sectors faced losses: Financials were down by 0.21%, Consumer Staples by 0.28%, Industrials by 0.55%, Materials by 0.66%, Health Care by 0.78%, Information Technology by 0.88%, Energy by 0.90%, Real Estate by 1.20%, Communication Services by 1.21%, and Consumer Discretionary by 1.27%.

Major Pair Movement

On Wednesday, the dollar index experienced a slight increase, recovering from earlier losses. This recovery was attributed to better-than-expected U.S. housing and industrial production data, as well as rebounding Treasury yields compared to euro zone yields. The release of Federal Reserve meeting minutes further supported the dollar’s performance later in the session. However, the dollar’s gains were somewhat limited by strong UK inflation data, which maintained expectations for a rate hike by the Bank of England (BoE) and boosted the pound.

Amid robust U.S. retail sales figures and ongoing uncertainties surrounding China’s economic stability, the dollar continued to attract interest from investors. The Fed meeting minutes aligned with previous indications, hinting at a potential additional rate hike, contributing to the extension of Treasury yields and the dollar’s turnaround from earlier losses.

The EUR/USD pair declined by 0.24% due in part to negative spreads between 2-year bund and Treasury yields. Sterling, while retreating from its Wednesday high, still gained 0.17% on the back of increased gilts-Treasury yields spreads, driven by strong UK core price growth, rising services inflation, and record-breaking basic earnings.

The USD/JPY pair saw a 0.47% increase, benefiting from rising Treasury-JGB yield spreads and breaching resistance levels. Risk-off sentiment stemming from China’s situation and recent rate cuts led to declines for the Chinese yuan (CNY) and the Australian dollar (AUD), with the latter hitting a 9-month low and the former nearing its 2022 record high.

Picks of the Day Analysis

EUR/USD (4 Hours)

EUR/USD Hits Lowest Level Since July Amidst Resurgent US Dollar Strength

The EUR/USD pair broke below the 1.0900 mark during the American session, marking its lowest point since early July, driven by the robust US Dollar. The US Dollar’s momentum was bolstered by higher US Treasury yields and cautious market sentiment, with the DXY testing July highs near 103.50. Despite mixed US data, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes revealed a cautious stance, hinting at potential rate stability. While some FOMC members expressed concerns about further tightening, the US Dollar regained strength, with the EUR/USD pair facing the prospect of extended losses amidst a backdrop of waning market sentiment and a resurgent Greenback.

Chart EURUSD by TradingView

Based on technical analysis, the EUR/USD moves lower on Wednesday, creating a push for the lower band of the Bollinger Bands. Currently, the price is moving around the lower of the Bollinger Bands. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) presently stands at 34, signifying that the EUR/USD is currently in a bearish sentiment.

Resistance: 1.0935, 1.1038

Support: 1.0865, 1.0789

XAU/USD (4 Hours)

XAU/USD Holds Above $1,900 as US Dollar Dominance Persists Amid Positive Economic Signals

Spot gold maintains a position just above the $1,900 threshold as the US Dollar retains its strength in a risk-averse climate, supported by favorable US data. July’s report showed a 0.1% month-on-month increase in Building Permits and a substantial 3.9% rise in Housing Starts, surpassing expectations. Additionally, Industrial Production climbed by 1%, while Capacity Utilization reached 79.3%. These figures, coupled with upbeat Retail Sales and the perception that the Federal Reserve is concluding its tightening phase, fuel optimism that the US economy is steering clear of a significant downturn. The imminent release of the July meeting Minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) prompts anticipation for insights into future monetary policy. Market consensus leans toward the Fed maintaining its stance in September and possibly throughout the year, with a potential shift toward rate cuts in 2024. The labor market’s persistent tightness remains a focal point for the data-driven central bank. Odds favoring a September hold stand at 88.5%, while the probability of a 25 basis points hike in November is at 36.2%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, as markets seek confirmation on the trajectory beyond September. While definitive answers may be unlikely, the FOMC document offers a chance for further clarity.

Chart XAUUSD by TradingView

Based on technical analysis, the XAU/USD witnessed a slight decrease on Wednesday, the price managed to create a push for the lower band of the Bollinger Bands during this movement. Currently, the price is moving at the lower band of the Bollinger Bands. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 28, indicating that the XAU/USD pair is exhibiting a somewhat bearish sentiment.

Resistance: $1,899, $1,912

Support: $1,892, $1,885

Economic Data

Stock markets experienced a significant decline on Tuesday, driven by mounting apprehensions about the global economy, particularly China, and a downturn in the U.S. banking sector. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped by 361.24 points, or 1.02%, closing at 34,946.39, ending its three-day positive streak. The S&P 500 retreated by 1.16%, closing at 4,437.86, slipping below its 50-day moving average, which could signal the initiation of a potential downtrend. The Nasdaq Composite also recorded a 1.14% fall, concluding the day at 13,631.05.

In the U.S., financial stocks saw a notable weakening. JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo shares both declined by 2%, while Bank of America shares dropped by 3%. This decline followed a warning from Fitch that it might downgrade the credit rating of numerous banks, including JPMorgan Chase. Just the previous week, Moody’s had already downgraded the ratings of ten U.S. banks and placed several major institutions on a watchlist for potential downgrades. Regional banks faced a similar fate, with the SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KBE) experiencing a 3% decline. This decrease came after Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari advocated for more stringent capital regulation.

Global investor sentiment was further impacted by discouraging economic data from China, combined with an unexpected interest rate cut by its central bank. China reported a mere 3.7% increase in industrial production in July compared to the previous year, falling short of expectations. Retail sales growth was also underwhelming, prompting the People’s Bank of China to reduce interest rates by 15 basis points to 2.5%. However, this move failed to allay concerns and instead intensified worries about China’s ailing real estate market. Market experts suggested that skepticism was growing about the effectiveness of Chinese government stimulus measures, contributing to the overall market unease.

The stock market’s turbulence coincided with a week marked by prominent earnings reports from major retailers. Home Depot exceeded analyst expectations, reporting higher earnings per share and revenue, which provided a slight boost to its stock. The week ahead also promised releases from Target and Walmart, further shaping investor sentiment. On the data front, July’s U.S. retail sales figures surprised economists, with a 0.7% month-over-month increase, surpassing the estimated 0.4% rise. These developments highlighted a robust consumer outlook amidst the broader economic uncertainties.

Data by Bloomberg

On Tuesday, the stock market witnessed widespread declines across all sectors, with a notable decrease of 1.16%. Among the sectors, Energy suffered the most significant drop, plummeting by 2.44%, while Financials and Utilities also experienced substantial declines of 1.80% and 1.69%, respectively. Consumer Discretionary and Materials sectors faced losses of 1.37% and 1.65%, highlighting a challenging day for these segments. Industrials and Real Estate both slid by 1.27% and 1.07%, respectively. Communication Services and Consumer Staples followed suit with decreases of 1.01% and 1.02%. Information Technology encountered a decline of 0.91%, while Health Care demonstrated relatively milder losses of 0.36%.

Major Pair Movement

The US Dollar Index extended its strength, marking a fourth successive daily gain and reaching a one-month peak on Tuesday. This recovery was driven by increased risk aversion and a rebound in Treasury yields. Wall Street stocks faced over a 1% decline, while US 10-year Treasury yields initially dropped but later rebounded above 4.20%. Meanwhile, the US Retail Sales surpassed expectations by rising 0.7% in July, exceeding the projected 0.2%. However, the NY Empire Manufacturing Index decreased to -19 from -1. Upcoming economic indicators include Building Permits, Housing Starts, and Industrial Production, with particular attention on the forthcoming FOMC meeting minutes.

EUR/USD initially rose to 1.0950 before retreating to 1.0900, influenced by a resurgent US Dollar. Eurozone data on GDP, Employment, and Industrial Production will be unveiled on Wednesday. In the UK, robust wage data fueled expectations of a Bank of England (BoE) rate hike, boosting the Pound. GBP/USD steadily advanced, closing above 1.2700. The UK’s upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation report for July will be closely monitored, with an anticipated decline from 7.9% to 6.7%.

USD/JPY remained stable around 145.50, testing support near 146.00 but finding strength above 145.00. Canada witnessed a rebound in its Consumer Price Index to 3.3% in July, surpassing the expected 3%, briefly lifting the Canadian Dollar. USD/CAD sustained its upward trend, closing just below 1.3500.

Picks of the Day Analysis

EUR/USD (4 Hours)

EUR/USD Retreats from Peak as US Dollar Stays Resilient Amid Economic Reports

The EUR/USD currency pair experienced a brief peak at 1.0951 on Tuesday, only to retract to 1.0900, highlighting ongoing seller influence and erasing daily gains. The US Dollar retains its robustness following favorable economic data. Eurozone data presented a mixed picture, with the German ZEW Expectation Index surpassing predictions at -12.3, while the Current Situation Index fell to -71.3, worse than expected. Eurozone Q2 growth, employment data, and June’s industrial production are awaited. In the US, retail sales exceeded forecasts, rising 0.7% in July, despite a lower-than-expected NY Empire State Manufacturing Index for August. The Dollar initially rose post-data but later dipped before rebounding, driven by risk aversion and US yield recovery. Wednesday brings building permits, industrial production figures, and Federal Reserve meeting minutes.

Chart EURUSD by TradingView

Based on technical analysis, the EUR/USD moves flat on Tuesday, creating a flat move in the bands of the Bollinger Bands. Currently, the price is moving between the middle and the lower of the Bollinger Bands. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) presently stands at 40, signifying that the EUR/USD is currently in a consolidation phase with a slight bearish undertone.

Resistance: 1.0935, 1.1038

Support: 1.0874, 1.0789

XAU/USD (4 Hours)

XAU/USD Hits 3-Month Low at $1,896.33 Amid Risk-Averse Markets and Mixed Data

On Tuesday, the XAU/USD pair fell to its lowest point since June at $1,896.33 per troy ounce, currently hovering around $1,906. While demand for the US Dollar has eased with Wall Street’s opening, overall market sentiment remains risk-averse, benefiting the Greenback. Weaker-than-expected Chinese data earlier in the day dampened investor confidence, raising concerns of a global growth slowdown driven by the Asian economic giant.

Positive data emerged from the United States, with July’s Retail Sales exceeding expectations at a 0.7% rise, surpassing the projected 0.4%. The Retail Sales Control Group saw an even more substantial increase of 1%, doubling the previous figure. Although this positive news halted the decline in stocks, Wall Street remained in negative territory, albeit improved from pre-opening levels.

Meanwhile, government bond yields retreated from recent multi-month highs, putting downward pressure on the US Dollar throughout the latter half of the day. The decline in yields was prompted by a warning from Fitch Ratings analysts, suggesting potential downgrades for certain American banks.

Chart XAUUSD by TradingView

Based on technical analysis, the XAU/USD witnessed a slight decrease on Tuesday, the price managed to reach the lower band of the Bollinger Bands during this movement. At present, the price is retracing higher. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 37, indicating that the XAU/USD pair is exhibiting a somewhat bearish sentiment.

Resistance: $1,912, $1,923

Support: $1,902, $1,892

Economic Data

On Monday, US stocks rebounded with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite both gaining ground. The broader market index rose 0.58%, closing at 4,489.72, while the Nasdaq surged by 1.05% to end at 13,788.33. In contrast, the Dow Jones Industrial Average edged up 0.07%, finishing at 35,307.63.

Nvidia, a key chip company, saw a notable resurgence, its shares climbing 7.1% after an 8.5% slump the prior week. The boost came from Morgan Stanley reaffirming Nvidia as a top pick ahead of its earnings report. Other chip stocks followed suit, with the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) up 3%, despite a more than 6% decline in August.

These gains unfolded amid a recent struggle for stocks to maintain momentum in the latter part of 2023’s summer. While the S&P 500 and Nasdaq faced declines of 0.3% and 1.9% respectively in the previous week, the Dow bucked the trend, posting a 0.6% gain in the same period – its fourth positive week in five.

Looking ahead, the upcoming week was poised to provide insights into the US consumer’s state, with anticipated earnings reports from major companies like Home Depot, Target, and Walmart, along with the release of July’s retail sales data. These reports followed mixed inflation data from the previous week, which showed a moderated yet still elevated price increase above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.

Data by Bloomberg

On Monday, the US stock market exhibited varied sectoral performance. The overall market saw a positive movement of 0.57%. The Information Technology sector led the gains with an impressive 1.85% increase, followed by Communication Services at +1.04%, and Consumer Discretionary at +0.39%. Health Care and Materials sectors also contributed positively, rising by 0.33% and 0.19% respectively. However, some sectors experienced slight gains or remained nearly unchanged, including Industrials (+0.03%).

On the other hand, several sectors faced declines. Financials registered a decrease of -0.18%, Energy was down by -0.33%, while Consumer Staples and Real Estate both experienced more pronounced declines at -0.52% and -0.54% respectively. The Utilities sector saw the most significant decrease, ending the day with a decline of -0.83%.

Major Pair Movement

The US Dollar Index achieved its highest daily close in over a month, surpassing 103.15, supported by rising US yields even as the Federal Reserve’s stability is expected. Retail Sales data and NY Empire Manufacturing Index awaited. The Euro faced fluctuations, briefly dipping below 1.0900 but recovering, while GBP/USD stabilized around 1.2700 after hitting 1.2616, accompanied by the upcoming UK employment and inflation reports.

USD/JPY extended gains, reaching its highest daily close near 145.50 since November. Japan’s Q2 GDP and Industrial Production data anticipated. USD/CHF hit a one-month peak before retreating, with Swiss Producer and Import Price Index due. USD/CAD maintained an upward trend above 1.3400 ahead of Canada’s CPI report. AUD/USD declined for a fifth day due to commodity drops, RBA minutes expected. NZD/USD hit a November-low close below 0.6000 ahead of the RBNZ decision. Gold and Silver slid but stabilized, Gold above $1,900 and Silver around $22.55.

Picks of the Day Analysis

EUR/USD (4 Hours)

US Dollar Strengthens as EUR/USD Faces Bearish Pressure

The EUR/USD faced downward pressure as it dropped below key moving averages, testing levels below 1.0900. While a recovery from the lows could alleviate some bearish sentiment, the overall trend remains downward, contributing to the US Dollar’s resilience across the market.

The US Dollar Index closed above 103.00, achieving its highest daily close in over a month on Tuesday, driven by rising US Treasury yields. Despite expectations of an unchanged interest rate policy by the Federal Reserve (Fed), the Greenback remains robust. US yields continue their upward trajectory, with the 10-year approaching 4.20% and the 2-year nearing 5%. Retail Sales data from the US is scheduled for release. Meanwhile, the Euro faced losses against the Swiss Franc and the Pound on Monday, partly due to Germany’s Wholesale Price Index dropping 0.2% in July, although the annual rate performed slightly below expectations. The upcoming ZEW Survey release will provide further insights into the Euro’s performance.

Chart EURUSD by TradingView

Based on technical analysis, the EUR/USD exhibited a downward movement on Monday and initiated a push towards the lower boundary of the Bollinger Bands. Nevertheless, it subsequently experienced a minor upward shift, with the potential to rise further towards the central line of the Bollinger Bands. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) presently stands at 38, signifying that the EUR/USD is currently in a consolidation phase with a slight bearish undertone.

Resistance: 1.0935, 1.1038

Support: 1.0874, 1.0789

XAU/USD (4 Hours)

XAU/USD Gold Prices Plunge Amidst Rising US Dollar Demand

Gold prices experienced a sharp decline on Monday due to increased demand for the US Dollar in a risk-averse climate. The week began with investors closely monitoring China, where real estate giant Country Garden Holdings’ warning of a $7.6 billion first-half loss triggered concerns of contagion. This led to a surge in speculative interest towards the safe-haven US Dollar.

Although worries eased briefly during European trading hours, they resurfaced before Wall Street’s opening. XAU/USD dropped to $1,902.68 per troy ounce, almost matching July’s low. However, the positive sentiment on Wall Street interrupted the US Dollar’s rally, allowing XAU/USD to recover slightly from its low. While equities posted modest gains, they curtailed the downside for the American currency.

Amidst a sparse macroeconomic calendar, the focus remains on the upcoming releases from the United States and the United Kingdom. The US is set to reveal Retail Sales data on Tuesday, while the UK will provide updates on employment and inflation in the coming days.

Chart XAUUSD by TradingView

Based on technical analysis, the XAU/USD witnessed a slight decrease on Monday, the price managed to reach the lower band of the Bollinger Bands during this movement. At present, the price is retracing higher. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 37, indicating that the XAU/USD pair is exhibiting a somewhat bearish sentiment.

Resistance: $1,912, $1,923

Support: $1,902, $1,892

Economic Data

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Important economic events will have a significant impact on the forex market this week. Keep an eye out for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) Rate Statement and the US data for retail sales. This information could greatly influence the markets, so it’s crucial for traders to be cautious and stay on top of the latest developments for a successful week of trading.

Here are some notable highlights for the week:

Australia Wage Price Index (15 August 2023) 

The seasonally adjusted Wage Price Index in Australia showed that wages increased by 3.7% year-on-year in Q1 2023, following a year-on-year growth of 3.4% in Q4 2022. 

Data for Q2 2023 is scheduled for release on 15 August, with analysts anticipating another increase of 3.8%.

Canada Consumer Price Index (15 August 2023) 

Canada’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.1% in June 2023 compared to the previous month. 

Analysts anticipate a 0.2% increase in the figures for July, which are set to be released on 15 August.

US Retail Sales (15 August 2023)

Retail sales in the US rose by 0.2% month-on-month in June 2023, following a 0.5% increase in May. 

Analysts expect a 0.3% growth in the figures for July, scheduled for release on 15 August.

UK Consumer Price Index (16 August 2023) 

Consumer price inflation in the UK dropped to 7.9% in June 2023, marking the lowest level since March 2022. 

The upcoming CPI figures are expected to show a further decline to 7.4%.

Reserve Bank of New Zealand Rate Statement (16 August 2023) 

During its July meeting, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand maintained the official cash rate (OCR) at 5.5%.

Analysts predict that the RBNZ will keep the OCR unchanged at 5.5% following its upcoming meeting on 16 August.

Federal Funds Rate (17 August 2023) 

The Federal Reserve raised the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 bps to 5.25–5.5%, in line with market expectations. 

Additionally, the central bank also resumed its tightening campaign after a pause in June.

Employment in Australia (17 August 2023) 

Employment in Australia surged by 32,600 in June 2023. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate stood at 3.5%, remaining unchanged from May. It continues to hover close to the 50-year lows reached in October 2022.

Analysts anticipate that employment figures for July 2023 will show an increase of 25,100, with the data scheduled for release on 17 August.