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VT Markets 平台的部份期货产品即将于以下时间展开新合约，如持仓过夜将对换约造成的额外盈亏进行扣补。详情请见下方表格：
由于并非市场因素所造成的价格波动，若投资者的仓位于合约切换期间包含期货原油的未平仓头寸，将依据展期方向产生相应的扣补，以此反映新旧合约之间的价差。
请留意：
• 展期时，合约将自动切换，所有持仓中的订单将可继续持有。
• 展期日未平仓的订单将对换约所产生的额外盈亏进行补扣调整，以反映到期合约和新合约之间的价格差异。
• 为避免差价合约展期，客户可以选择在展期日之前关闭任何未平仓的订单。
• 投资者应在展期前妥善控制仓位或调整相应的止盈止损设置。
• 同时，由于展期需做调整，在展期当天开盘前后半小时，我们会禁止所有同名账户内部转账。
如您有任何疑问，我们的团队将十分乐意为您解答。
请留言或发邮件至 [email protected] 或联系在线客服。
Keputusan Fed yang terbaru untuk mengurangkan kadar dana persekutuan sebanyak 0.25% ke 4.75% telah menarik perhatian pasaran. Langkah ini adalah selari dengan jangkaan ramai yang ia akan berlaku jika Fed menghampiri sasaran inflasinya.
Pengurangan sederhana ini menandakan peralihan polisi kewangan yang akan menyokong pertumbuhan ekonomi sambil memberi perhatian terhadap inflasi. Keputusan ini boleh memberikan kesan yang mendalam merentasi ekonomi global dan pasaran US.
Secara keseluruhannya, keputusan ini didorong oleh inflasi, yang melonjak dengan dramatik pada 2021 tetapi telah menurun sejak itu. Petunjuk inflasi pilihan Fed, indeks PCE, telah menghampiri sasaran 2%, memberi mereka ruang untuk menurunkan kadar tanpa menaikkan inflasi semula.
Tetapi, terdapat faktor lain yang perlu diberi perhatian oleh Fed: pasaran buruh. Walaupun pengangguran kekal rendah, terdapat kemungkinan keadaan boleh berubah dengan drastik. Pasaran buruh adalah rapuh dalam cara yang sukar diramal, dan Fed mahu mengekalkan keseimbangan.
Gerakan berhati-hati ini, walaupun halus, adalah cara mereka untuk memastikan pertumbuhan ekonomi kekal pada landasan.
Keadaan menjadi lebih rumit dengan perlantikan bekas Presiden Donald Trump. Kemenangannya menambahkan ketakpastian, terutamanya dalam polisi ekonomi.
Salah satu cadangan yang kerap dibincangkan adalah rancangan untuk potongan cukai, yang boleh mengakibatkan defisit persekutuan yang lebih besar. Defisit yang bertambah akan meningkatkan pinjaman kerajaan, mendorong tekanan ke atas Fed untuk memikirkan semula strategi kadar faedahnya.
Jika defisit bertambah, Fed mungkin perlu menyesuaikan program pembelian bonnya atau mengurus kadar dengan cara yang berbeza untuk mengelakkan ketidakstabilan jangka panjang.
Pendirian Trump terhadap tarif boleh mengeruhkan keadaan. Jika tarif meningkatkan kos barang yang diimport, inflasi boleh meningkat semula, yang akan memberikan cabaran kepada Fed untuk mengekalkan harga yang stabil.
Fed perlu berhati-hati dengan perubahan polisi ini supaya ia dapat mengawal inflasi sambil menyokong pertumbuhan.
Situasi ini telah mengubah jangkaan pasaran. Pada asalnya, Fed merancang untuk mengurangkan kadar secara beransur-ansur dengan julat di antara 3.25% hingga 3.5% menjelang 2025.
Tetapi kini, penganalisis meramalkan Fed mungkin hanya akan mencapai 4.0% pada masa itu Pandangan yang lebih berhati-hati ini didorong oleh impak dari polisi Trump.
Potongan cukai dan tarif boleh memperlahankan rentak Fed, mendorongnya untuk menjadi lebih konservatif dalam strateginya.
USDX telah menunjukkan momentum menaik, meningkat daripada paras 105.30 yang dipantau. Apabila ia mendaki lebih tinggi, pedagang akan memerhatikan kawasan 105.60 dengan teliti.
Jika tindakan harga mula berkonsolidasi di sini, terdapat potensi untuk pergerakan menaik lebih lanjut, dengan sasaran seterusnya di kawasan 106.10.
Walau bagaimanapun, jika harga mula menunjukkan tanda-tanda tekanan bearish di 106.10, ia boleh menjadi peluang untuk menjual. Oleh itu, peserta pasaran perlu memberi perhatian terhadap corak yang sedang berkembang.
EURUSD telah menunjukkan pullback daripada kawasan 1.0830, yang dikenal pasti sebagai potensi zon rintangan. Sekiranya pasangan ini terus menurun, fokus akan berpindah kepada paras sokongan pada 1.0655 dan 1.0620.
SP500 terus mencipta rekod baru, dengan 6050 sebagai paras rintangan seterusnya. Momentum bullish lanjut boleh mendorong kenaikan ke paras lebih tinggi.
GBPUSD sedang jatuh di bawah 1.3030, dengan 1.2790 dan 1.2700 bertindak sebagai paras sokongan utama. Pembalikan di sini boleh menjadi peluang untuk membeli.
USDJPY telah jatuh di bawah 152.40, dan 150.00 akan menjadi kritikal untuk kemungkinan isyarat pembalikan bullish. Sebarang penurunan lanjut boleh mendorong pergerakan bearish.
Dalam komoditi, USOil masih berlegar di bawah zon jual 73.90, tetapi jika ia berkonsolidasi berhampiran 71.30, ia boleh menjadi titik masuk untuk menjual, manakal konsolidasi boleh mencadangkan peluang membeli.
Gas Asli sedang berkonsolidasi berhampiran 2.27, dengan potensi breakout dalam mana-mana arah. Jika harga bergerak lebih tinggi, isyarat bearish pada 2.55 boleh mencetuskan peluang menjual.
Untuk logam berharga, Emas sedang menguji 2675 selepas jatuh daripada 2710. Dorongan lebih tinggi boleh mensasarkan 2750, tetapi konsolidasi boleh mengakibatkan penurunan lebih lanjut ke arah 2625.
Pada hari Isnin, New Zealand akan melancarkan data Inflation Expectations, yang boleh memberi pandangan ke atas saiz potongan kadar seterusnya oleh Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
Hari Rabu akan menampilkan laporan Consumer Price Index (CPI) tahun-ke-tahun US, yang dijangkakan menunjukkan inflasi yang stabil pada 2.4%. Data ini akan diperhatikan dengan teliti untuk sebarang tanda impak ke atas polisi kewangan Fed.
Pada hari Khamis, Gabenor Reserve Bank Australia Bullock akan berucap, dengan pedagang mencari petunjuk terhadap trajektori kadar faedah pada masa depan. Kadar Pengangguran Australia dijangkakan kekal pada 4.10%, memberikan petunjuk ke atas kestabilan pasaran buruh.
Hari Jumaat akan menyaksikan beberapa peristiwa utama, termasuk ucapan daripada Pengerusi Fed US Powell, di mana pedagang akan mencari petunjuk terhadap keputusan kadar faedah masa depan.
Di UK, Gabenor Bank of England Bailey akan berucap, dan data KDNK untuk Oktober akan dikeluarkan. US juga akan menerbitkan data Retail Sales, dijangkakan naik 0.3%, memberi pandangan ke atas trend perbelanjaan semasa pengguna.
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The November interest rate meeting is scheduled for the same time as the US general election, so the Fed has postponed it by a day. The policy meeting will now take place on November 6-7, with the rate decision announced at 3:00 AM Beijing time on November 8 (Friday).
See also: This Billionaire Investor Sees the US Election Risks, Braces for Even More Inflation Trades
Following the initial rate cut by the Federal Reserve, the discussion has moved from “when” cuts would start to “where” interest rates are expected to go from here.
In case you missed it, here’s a recap of what happened when Fed slashed rates by 50bps in September.
Economists often focus on the Fed’s neutral rate, or “r-star”—basically, the rate that keeps the economy steady without speeding it up or slowing it down. It’s the key measure for whether the Fed’s policy is tightening or loosening.
Think of R-star as the “Goldilocks zone” for interest rates—not too high, not too low, but just right to keep prices stable and maximise employment. Although R-star plays a key role in guiding Fed policy, it’s hard to pinpoint.
Understanding the neutral rate is crucial because it helps central bankers to determine whether their monetary policy is accommodative, neutral, or restrictive. This insight helps them effectively use one of their main tools—interest rates—to either curb or stimulate economic activity.
The main concern is that the neutral interest rate could be higher than what the Fed expects.
If that’s the case, the Fed might end up cutting rates too much, which could lead to another surge in inflation.
If this situation happens, the bond market is likely to feel the effects first.
However, if volatility causes inflation to stay high, it could quickly affect the stock market, forex, and other markets as well.
Some market indicators, such as the difference between 5-year US Treasury yields and the yields on inflation-protected bonds of the same maturity, seem to reflect these anxieties.
Since the Fed’s initial rate cut target last month, this spread—commonly known as the 5-year break-even inflation rate—has already bounced back, suggesting that some investors are anticipating more persistent inflation in the future.
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
After an unexpectedly weak jobs report caused a global stock market sell-off, numerous critics argued that the Federal Reserve seemed to be falling behind, with some even advocating for emergency rate cuts.
Federal Reserve officials often discuss this rate to help clarify the complex decisions they’re making, but even they have varying opinions on it.
Fed Board member Bowman voted against the decision to lower the policy rate target by 50 bps in September, marking the first dissent since 2005.
Additionally, other Federal Reserve officials share skepticism about this decision. Atlanta Federal Reserve President Bostic mentioned to The Wall Street Journal that he is open to keeping rates steady during the last two policy meetings of the year.
According to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool, traders forecast a 98% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in November.
Source: CME Group
While this week’s policy meeting may not bring many surprises, Federal Reserve policymakers are grappling with a challenging economic puzzle: the U.S. labour market shows signs of cooling, yet consumer spending remains strong.
It’s unclear how long these trends of steady spending and a slowing labour market will persist, as these figures are revised every month.
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