The S&P 500 achieved a new record high, climbing to 4,927.93, driven by anticipation of major tech company earnings and the upcoming Federal Reserve rate policy decision. This week is pivotal with 19% of S&P 500 companies, including tech giants like Microsoft and Apple, due to report earnings. The Dow Jones and Nasdaq also saw significant gains. Concurrently, the Federal Open Market Committee is expected to maintain steady rates, with a 97% probability against a rate cut. In currency markets, the dollar index rose, influenced by various global events and market uncertainties. The Euro and Japanese yen weakened against the dollar, while the Sterling remained stable. These financial movements occur amidst global geopolitical tensions and economic concerns, notably in China and the Eurozone.

Stock Market Updates

On Monday, the S&P 500 achieved a new record high, driven by anticipation of tech giant earnings reports and the upcoming Federal Reserve rate policy decision. The index rose 0.76% to 4,927.93, surpassing its previous record close of 4,894.16 set on January 25. Similarly, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 224.02 points (0.59%) to close at 38,333.45, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.12%, ending at 15,628.04. This marked the sixth record close for both the S&P 500 and the Dow.

The focus this week is on the earnings season, with 19% of the S&P 500 companies set to report their earnings. High-profile tech companies such as Microsoft, Apple, Meta, Amazon, and Alphabet, which have significantly contributed to this year’s market rally, are among those scheduled to release their results. Additionally, investors are keeping a close watch on earnings from major Dow components like Boeing and Merck. Meanwhile, the Federal Open Market Committee is commencing its two-day policy meeting, with market participants almost certain that the Fed will maintain steady rates. According to the CME Group, there’s approximately a 97% probability that the Fed will not reduce rates in the upcoming meeting.

Data by Bloomberg

On Monday, the stock market experienced overall positive movement, with all sectors combined showing a gain of +0.76%. Notably, the Consumer Discretionary sector led the advances with a +1.37% increase, followed closely by Information Technology and Communication Services, which rose by +0.97% and +0.89% respectively. Health Care, Real Estate, Utilities, and Industrials also saw moderate gains, each climbing by approximately +0.68% and +0.64%. More modest growth was observed in Consumer Staples and Materials, both up by +0.52%, while Financials lagged slightly behind with a +0.30% increase. In contrast to the general upward trend, the Energy sector was the only one to experience a decline, dropping by -0.20%.

Currency Market Updates

In the recent currency market update, the dollar index experienced a 0.25% rise, largely driven by gains against major currencies, with the notable exception of the Japanese yen. This shift in the currency market comes amidst a variety of global events contributing to a heightened sense of risk. These include uncertainties surrounding key U.S. labor data, Eurozone inflation reports, and upcoming policy meetings of the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England. Additionally, increasing tensions in the Middle East and concerns over China’s economic future have added to the market’s cautious sentiment.

The Euro to U.S. Dollar (EUR/USD) pair saw a notable decline of 0.35%, significantly contributing to the dollar’s overall strength. This decline was influenced by weak economic conditions in Germany and a mild recession in the Eurozone. Moreover, a growing number of dovish European Central Bank policymakers has led the market to anticipate a 25 basis point rate cut by the ECB in April. The USD/JPY pair also experienced a 0.33% fall, influenced by a decrease in Treasury yields and a slight increase in Japanese Government Bond yields, challenging the uptrend driven by speculations and expectations of policy convergence between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan. In addition to these currency movements, Sterling displayed a modest drop of 0.19%, maintaining its range for the seventh consecutive week, while oil prices fluctuated amid geopolitical tensions and concerns over Chinese economic stability.

Picks of the Day Analysis

EUR/USD (4 Hours)

EUR/USD Decline Amidst Dovish ECB Stance and Strong USD

The EUR/USD pair experienced a notable decline, falling below 1.0800 for the first time since mid-December, primarily due to the persistent strength of the US dollar and dovish signals from the European Central Bank (ECB). The ECB’s decision to leave policy rates unchanged, coupled with President Lagarde’s emphasis on a data-dependent approach and potential interest rate cuts in the summer, contributed to a subdued Euro. Contrasting views within the ECB, such as Board member Centeno’s unexpected support for earlier rate cuts, failed to reverse the Euro’s downward trend. Additionally, anticipation of the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, with expectations of maintaining the Federal Funds Target Rate (FFTR) between 5.25%–5.50%, further pressured the EUR/USD. Investors are now focusing on the possibility of a US rate cut, potentially delayed to May, as indicated by the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.

Chart EUR/USD by TradingView

On Monday, the EUR/USD moved lower, able to reach the lower band of the Bollinger Bands. Currently, the price is moving higher near the middle band, suggesting a potential upward movement to reach the middle band. Notably, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) maintains its position at 42, signaling a neutral but bearish outlook for this currency pair.

Resistance: 1.0890, 1.0954

Support: 1.0814, 1.0745

XAU/USD (4 Hours)

XAU/USD React to Geopolitical Tensions and Economic Anticipations

Gold experienced a notable rise, reaching $2,037.46, influenced by a weakening US dollar and escalating tensions in Asia, particularly due to a drone attack on US troops in the Middle East, attributed to Iran. This geopolitical unrest, coupled with mixed stock market performances and anticipation of key economic events such as the Eurozone and German GDP reports, US employment data, and the US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision, kept investors on edge. Additionally, the market’s reaction to European Central Bank officials’ comments on interest rate expectations further shaped the trading landscape, maintaining a cautious but vigilant environment in the financial markets.

Chart XAU/USD by TradingView

On Monday, XAU/USD moved higher and was able to reach the upper band of the Bollinger Bands. Currently, the price is moving higher slightly below the upper band suggesting a potential upward movement to reach above the upper band. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 57, signaling a neutral with a slightly bullish outlook for this pair.

Resistance: $2,035, $2,052

Support: $2,010, $1,993

Economic Data

Forex Daily Market Analysis: 29 Jan 2024

CURRENCIES:

Overview:

• The final week of January is known for its high activity, and this year is no exception.
• The economic calendar is packed with crucial events, including decisions from the Federal Reserve and Bank of England, US nonfarm payrolls, German and Euro Area Q4 growth data, Chinese manufacturing and services PMIs, and German and Euro Area inflation data.

Tech Company Earnings:

• Alongside economic events, significant US tech companies will release their Q4 results.
• On Tuesday, Alphabet (GOOG) and Microsoft (MSFT) present their financial reports, followed by Amazon (AMZN), Apple (APPL), and Meta Platform (META) on Thursday.
• To stay updated on earnings releases, check the DailyFX Earnings Calendar.

Market Trends:

• Despite record-breaking performances in US equity markets, the upcoming earnings reports from the Big 7 tech companies may impact indices due to their substantial weight.
• Last week, Tesla (TSLA) faced a market slump of around 12% post-earnings release.
• Investors continue to adopt a risk-on approach.

Euro and US Dollar Dynamics:

• Despite the ECB maintaining unchanged monetary policy settings, the Euro faced pressure as markets anticipate potential interest rate cuts in Germany and the Euro Area due to sluggish economic growth.
• The Euro Area and German GDP data scheduled for the upcoming week will be closely observed.
• The US dollar remained in focus, with a stable performance despite slightly better-than-expected US Core PCE report and a robust advanced Q4 GDP release last week.

STOCK MARKET:

• Economic data: Dallas Fed manufacturing activity, January (-9.3 prior)
• Earnings: Cleveland Cliffs (CLF) Phillips (PHG), SoFi Technologies (SOFI), Whirlpool (WHR)
• Earnings Highlights:
• Earnings reports from major tech giants, including Apple (AAPL), Alphabet (GOOGL, GOOG), Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), Meta (META).
• 106 S&P 500 companies, including six Dow components, set to report this week.
• Federal Reserve Meeting (Wednesday):
• Expected announcement of latest policy decision.
• Anticipation of interest rates remaining unchanged (5.25% to 5.50%).
• Investors closely watching for insights during Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s conference, particularly regarding potential future rate cuts.
• January Jobs Report (Friday):
• Economists expect a modest decrease in job additions.
• Unemployment rate projected to stay flat at 3.7%.
• Additional Highlights:
• Updates on activity in the manufacturing and services sectors.
• Latest data on job openings.
• Key earnings reports from AMD, Starbucks, Pfizer, Chevron, Exxon Mobil, and Boeing.
• Market Trends:
• Stocks ending the week near record highs.
• The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite up over 2% in January.
• Dow Jones Industrial Average up more than 1%.
• Federal Reserve Outlook:
• Shift in market narrative since December; investors initially priced in a March cut.
• Inflation at its lowest in nearly three years.
• Expectations for a potential future rate cut.
• Market pricing in a 47% chance of a March cut and an 88% chance of lower rates by May.
• Earnings Impact on Market Narrative:
• Excluding Tesla, the top six earnings drivers for the S&P 500 are expected to be the “Magnificent Seven” tech stocks.
• Anticipation that these tech giants will contribute to a 53.7% year-over-year earnings growth, while the remaining 494 companies may report a 10.5% earnings decline.
• Critical market direction anticipated based on stock price reactions to tech companies’ reports.

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Looking ahead from the final week of January, traders and investors are gearing up for a bustling week filled with significant economic events. These developments are poised to shape market dynamics, with a particular focus on inflation trends, economic growth pace, and central bank strategies. Let’s delve into the crucial data points that will impact financial markets.

Australia’s Consumer Price Index (31 January 2024)

Market participants are closely monitoring the upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) data in Australia. After a dip in the year-on-year CPI from 4.9% in October 2023 to 4.3% in November 2023, the projected increase in CPI by 3.7% in December 2023 is of paramount importance. This inflation indicator holds significance as it could sway the Reserve Bank of Australia’s monetary policy decisions, potentially affecting the Australian Dollar.

Canada’s Gross Domestic Product (31 January 2024)

With stability observed in the Canadian economy over the past few months, the forthcoming Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data is expected to reflect a growth of 0.1%, serving as a key gauge of Canada’s economic well-being. Traders focused on the Canadian Dollar will closely analyse this release for insights into the Bank of Canada’s future monetary policy.

The Fed Interest Rate Decision (1 February 2024)

After maintaining the federal funds rate at 5.50% since December 2023, the Federal Reserve’s upcoming interest rate decision is highly anticipated. Despite previous indications of potential rate cuts in 2024, analysts expect the Fed to hold the rate steady. This decision is critical for the US Dollar and could significantly influence the equity and bond markets.

Bank of England Interest Rate Decision (1 February 2024)

Having maintained its benchmark interest rate at a 15-year high of 5.25% since December 2023, the Bank of England’s anticipated decision to hold steady will be crucial for the GBP. Given the divided vote in the previous meeting, any shifts in the voting pattern could offer insights into the central bank’s future policy direction.

US Jobs Report (2 February 2024)

The US jobs market, a focal point of attention, witnessed the addition of 216,000 jobs in December 2023, but with the unemployment rate holding steady at 3.7%. The January 2024 report, forecasted to show an addition of 173,000 jobs and a stable unemployment rate, will serve as a key indicator of the US economic health. This data holds substantial influence over the US Dollar and overall market sentiment, especially in light of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy considerations.

Daily Forex Analysis: 27 Jan 2024

CURRENCIES:

Event Overview:

• US Dollar Forecast focuses on upcoming Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (core PCE) data.
• Release date: January 26, 2024, at 12:30 AM +02:00.

Importance of Core PCE Data:

• The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis is set to release core PCE data.
• Core PCE is the Fed’s favored inflation gauge, influencing the U.S. dollar’s near-term trajectory.
• Results may impact the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) guidance at the January meeting.

Estimates for Core PCE:

• Forecast suggests a 0.2% rise in core PCE for December.
• Anticipated annual rate decrease to 3.0% from November’s 3.2%.

Policy Context:

• Policymakers aim to restore price stability post-pandemic through a historic streak of interest rate hikes.

Dollar’s Response to Core PCE:

• For the US dollar’s recovery, PCE data should indicate a stall in disinflation progress.
• A positive scenario could make the Fed cautious about substantial borrowing cost cuts, potentially delaying the easing cycle.

Potential Market Impact:

• If core PCE falls below 3.0%, the greenback might experience a sharp downside turn.
• Weak inflation numbers could support expectations of deep interest rate cuts, leading to lower Treasury yields.
• Lower yields could reduce the attractiveness of the U.S. currency.

Key Consideration:

• The outcome of the core PCE reading will likely shape market expectations and influence the U.S. dollar’s short-term performance.

Analyst Perspective:

• Diego Colman, Contributing Strategist, shares insights on the importance of Core PCE data in guiding markets ahead of the Fed decision.

Further Reading:

• Most Read: Gold Price Forecast – Core PCE Data to Guide Markets Ahead of Fed Decision.

Save our Forex Daily Market Analysis for more financial world updates.

STOCK MARKET:

Media Industry Consolidation Overview:

• Wall Street anticipates the next significant media merger, but companies seem hesitant.

Company Responses:

• Comcast (CMCSA) CEO Brian Roberts expressed contentment with the current company status, setting a high bar for any potential moves beyond the existing plan.
• Netflix (NFLX) dismissed merger speculation, particularly in acquiring linear assets, believing further M&A among traditional entertainment companies wouldn’t substantially alter the competitive landscape.

Analyst Predictions:

• Bank of America analyst Jessica Reif Ehrlich suggests Paramount (PARA), Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD), and Comcast’s NBCUniversal could be impacted by consolidation within the next 18 to 24 months.
• Speculation arises that two of these three players might merge.

Market Impact:

• Paramount’s stock rose 5% following reports of production studio Skydance Media’s interest in taking Paramount private.
• Media giants have been taking measures to address Wall Street concerns, including mass layoffs, cost reductions, and strategic shifts in their business models.

Challenges in the Industry:

• Media companies faced challenges in appeasing investors despite cost-cutting efforts and strategic adjustments.
• Valuation levels remain depressed, and profitability in streaming services, except for Netflix, is a concern.

Expert Analysis:

• Experts predict that challenges in the industry, such as valuation and streaming profitability, may drive companies to explore potential deals and consolidation.

Focus on Comcast’s Peacock:

• Comcast’s streaming service, Peacock, has been central to the consolidation debate.
• Full-year losses for Peacock were $2.7 billion, slightly exceeding company estimates.
• Comcast remains committed to Peacock, expecting meaningful improvement in 2024 despite the 2023 peak in annual losses.

Strategic Moves by Comcast:

• Comcast, relying heavily on linear television, surprises investors by investing approximately $110 million to acquire exclusive rights to an NFL playoff game for Peacock.

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In a week marked by mixed market performance, the S&P 500 soared to a new closing record, while the Nasdaq faced challenges due to Tesla’s post-earnings decline. Positive economic indicators, including robust U.S. GDP growth and encouraging inflation data, influenced market optimism. Despite the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes, a healthy balance of non-inflationary growth was observed. Notably, IBM’s stellar performance offset Tesla’s impact. In the currency market, the dollar index strengthened amid evidence of the U.S. outperforming Europe economically.

Stock Market Updates

The stock market exhibited mixed performance as the S&P 500 rose for the sixth consecutive day, setting another all-time closing record at 4,894.16. The Dow Jones Industrial Average also climbed by 0.64%, reaching 38,049.13 points. However, the Nasdaq Composite only increased by 0.18%, hindered by a post-earnings decline in Tesla shares. Despite the overall positive trend, Tesla’s disappointing fourth-quarter results led to a more than 12% drop in its stock, impacting the broader market. The technology-heavy Nasdaq, nevertheless, outperformed with a 1.3% weekly gain, while the S&P 500 and Dow posted increases of 1.1% and 0.5%, respectively.

The market was influenced by positive economic indicators, including the U.S. economy’s robust 3.3% growth rate in the fourth quarter, surpassing economists’ expectations of 2%. Additionally, encouraging data on inflation, with a 2% gain in the personal consumption expenditures price index (excluding food and energy), contributed to market optimism. Despite the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes, the data reflected a healthy mix of non-inflationary growth. Notably, IBM’s strong performance, with a more than 9% jump in its stock after beating analysts’ predictions for adjusted earnings and revenue, counterbalanced the negative impact of Tesla’s decline on the overall market. With over one-fifth of S&P 500 companies reporting financials this earnings season, nearly 74% have surpassed Wall Street expectations, according to FactSet.

Data by Bloomberg

On Thursday, the overall market showed a positive trend with a gain of 0.53%. The Energy sector experienced the highest increase, surging by 2.23%, followed by Communication Services with a rise of 1.84%, and Utilities registering a gain of 1.79%. Real Estate also contributed to the upward movement, advancing by 1.31%, while Materials and Industrials increased by 1.09% and 0.97%, respectively. Consumer Staples and Financials showed modest gains of 0.92% and 0.54%, while Information Technology and Health Care had more conservative increases of 0.38% and a slight decrease of -0.23%, respectively. However, Consumer Discretionary recorded a decline of -1.05% on Thursday.

Currency Market Updates

In the currency market updates, the dollar index demonstrated strength, advancing by 0.3% as fresh evidence emerged showcasing the robust performance of the U.S. economy compared to Europe’s. The U.S. Q4 GDP growth exceeded expectations at 3.3%, while Germany’s Ifo data hinted at a lingering recession, and the UK experienced a significant decline in retail sales. The EUR/USD pair fell by 0.43%, despite the European Central Bank (ECB) opting to delay a rate cut, providing no clear guidance on unwinding its substantial rate-hiking cycle. The lack of clarity on when the eurozone inflation downtrend will prompt a shift in ECB policy raises concerns, especially if the economic situation worsens.

Amidst the data-driven decisions of central banks, the focus on Friday will be on the Federal Reserve’s preferred core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) update. As the ECB, Fed, and Bank of England (BoE) navigate their monetary policies based on economic data, the currency market is witnessing fluctuations. USD/JPY rose by 0.14% as the Bank of Japan (BoJ) meeting on Tuesday left the potential for a rate hike in April. However, the Federal Reserve’s March decision remains uncertain. Other economic indicators, such as Tokyo CPI and U.S. core PCE, are anticipated to influence market dynamics, while geopolitical factors continue to impact oil prices and European natural gas trends.

Picks of the Day Analysis

EUR/USD (4 Hours)

EUR/USD Stays Steady Amid ECB News and Strong US Economy

The EUR/USD pair held its ground near 1.0900 as important events unfolded. The European Central Bank (ECB) decided not to change interest rates, sticking to its goal of reaching a 2% inflation target. However, the accompanying document didn’t provide new insights, keeping the pair in its usual range. In the US, the economy surprised with a strong 3.3% growth in Q4, beating the expected 2%. While the US Dollar initially got stronger, mixed data and positive stock market trends made its position varied across currencies. The upcoming press conference by ECB President Christine Lagarde might give more clues about the central bank’s plans and impact the direction of EUR/USD.

Chart EUR/USD by TradingView

On Thursday, the EUR/USD moved lower, reaching the lower band of the Bollinger Bands. Currently, the price is moving just above the lower band, suggesting a potential upward movement to reach the middle band. Notably, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) maintains its position at 41, signaling a neutral but bearish outlook for this currency pair.

Resistance: 1.0890, 1.0954

Support: 1.0814, 1.0745

XAU/USD (4 Hours)

XAU/USD Steady Amid Economic Boost and Dovish Signals

Gold prices stayed steady even as the US Dollar got stronger due to the US economy growing by a better-than-expected 3.3%. This positive news made stocks rise, but interest rates stayed low. In Europe, the central bank didn’t change key interest rates, and its president, Christine Lagarde, shared a cautious message, making the US Dollar even stronger. People are now thinking that interest rates might go down soon. We’re waiting for the release of the December inflation numbers to see what might happen next.

Chart XAU/USD by TradingView

On Thursday, XAU/USD moved lower and was able to reach the lower band of the Bollinger Bands. Currently, the price is moving higher near the middle band suggesting a potential upward movement to reach above the middle band. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 48, signaling a neutral outlook for this pair.

Resistance: $2,035, $2,052

Support: $2,010, $1,993

Economic Data

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Forex Markets Analysis: 25 Jan 2024

CURRENCIES:

• U.S. Dollar faced a decline despite positive economic data on Wednesday
• Potential for a reversal in the dollar’s fortunes in the upcoming days
• Market attention shifts to the fourth-quarter U.S. GDP report

U.S. Dollar Technical Outlook:

• Analysis focuses on three major FX pairs: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, and GBP/USD
• Despite better-than-expected PMI results, the dollar retreated
• Possibility of a turnaround if key economic data continues to surprise positively

Fourth-Quarter U.S. GDP Report:

• Scheduled for release on Thursday
• Forecasted economic activity expansion of 2% at an annualized rate
• GDP considered backward-looking but provides insights into economic health

Key Points to Monitor:

• Close attention to household expenditures, a significant growth engine
• Consumer spending remains robust, contributing to a positive GDP outlook
• A strong GDP report could impact expectations of a Fed rate cut in March

Implications for the U.S. Dollar:

• Positive GDP scenario may reduce odds of a Fed rate cut
• Traders could adjust dovish expectations for the FOMC’s policy path
• Potential for a more favorable backdrop for the U.S. dollar

STOCK MARKET:

Tesla Q4 Earnings Overview:

• Stock drops due to earnings miss and a cautious full-year production outlook
• CEO Elon Musk confirms the launch of the company’s next-gen vehicle in H2 2025

Financial Performance in Q4:

• Top-line revenue of $25.17 billion, slightly below the estimated $25.87 billion
• Revenue increased by approximately 3% compared to the previous year
• Adjusted EPS at $0.71, missing the estimated $0.73
• Adjusted net income of $2.486 billion, falling short of the $2.61 billion expected by the Street

Full-Year Production Outlook:

• Tesla anticipates a notably lower vehicle volume growth rate compared to 2023
• Launch of the next-gen vehicle at Gigafactory Texas cited as a reason for the production slowdown
• Unlikely to meet Street estimates of 2.19 million vehicle production for 2024, signaling a 21% increase from 2023

Next-Gen Vehicle and Production Plans:

• Progress on the next-gen platform highlighted in the earnings release
• Musk emphasizes the revolutionary manufacturing system for the low-cost vehicle
• Production of the next-gen vehicle scheduled for the second half of 2025

Factors Contributing to Profitability Drop:

• Downward pressure on margins due to cost-cutting efforts initiated in late 2022
• Q4 gross margin at 17.6%, below the estimated 18.1% and a decline from the previous year
• Various challenges, including Hertz shedding EVs, price cuts in China, production halt in Berlin, and Musk’s stock demand, impacting profitability

Delivery and Production Statistics:

• Q4 deliveries surpass Street estimates with 484,507 deliveries
• All-time record quarter for Tesla, beating the previous record of 466,000 units in Q2 of the last year
• Yearly vehicle deliveries grow by 38% to 1.81 million, production increases by 35% to 1.85 million

Cybertruck and Musk’s Concerns:

• Cybertruck deliveries not specified, but demand described as “off the hook”
• Musk addresses concerns about securing greater control for AI ambitions, citing potential loss of influence in the future
• Expresses worries about being voted out by shareholder advisory firms like ISS and Glass Lewis

Elon Musk’s Recent Activities:

• Speaks at a symposium about antisemitism in Krakow, Poland, on January 22, 2024
• Highlights his desire to be an effective steward of powerful technology, expressing concerns about potential loss of control due to shareholder decisions.

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On Wednesday, the stock market exhibited a blend of movements as the S&P 500 set a new record high, driven by a technology stock rally led by Netflix. While the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite saw positive gains, the Dow Jones Industrial Average faced a slight decline due to notable drops in Verizon and 3M following earnings reports. Netflix’s remarkable 10% surge, supported by an all-time high subscriber count, contributed to the broader tech sector’s strength in 2024. Microsoft and Meta also made significant gains, pushing the S&P 500 to record levels and confirming a new bull market. However, not all companies shared in the positive momentum, with AT&T and DuPont De Nemours facing setbacks. In the currency market, the dollar index declined, influenced by China’s stimulus measures, impacting pairs like USD/JPY and EUR/USD. The article concludes with a look ahead at upcoming economic data releases, central bank meetings, and geopolitical factors influencing the dynamic currency market.

Stock Market Updates

The stock market experienced mixed movements on Wednesday, with the S&P 500 reaching a new record high, driven by a rally in technology stocks led by Netflix. The S&P 500 edged up 0.08% to close at 4,868.55, establishing a fresh all-time closing record, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.36%, marking the fifth consecutive day of positive performance for both indices. However, the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.26% to 37,806.39, impacted by notable declines in Verizon and 3M following their earnings reports. Netflix saw a significant surge of over 10% after announcing an all-time high subscriber count of 260.8 million and surpassing analysts’ revenue estimates, contributing to the broader tech sector’s strong performance in 2024.

In addition to Netflix’s positive impact, Microsoft’s shares rose nearly 1%, briefly pushing its market value above $3 trillion for the first time, while Meta advanced 1.4%, surpassing a $1 trillion market cap. These gains, along with the strong performance of communication services and information technology stocks, propelled the S&P 500 to record highs and confirmed a new bull market. However, not all companies shared in the positive momentum, with AT&T slipping about 3% due to lower-than-expected earnings, and DuPont De Nemours tumbling 14% after preannouncing weak fourth-quarter results and issuing disappointing first-quarter guidance. Traders continued to focus on earnings reports, with Tesla, Las Vegas Sands, and IBM scheduled to release results after the market close. As of the current earnings season, more than 71% of S&P 500 companies that have reported quarterly financials have exceeded Wall Street expectations, according to FactSet.

Data by Bloomberg

On Wednesday, the overall market saw a marginal increase of 0.08%. Notable positive performances were observed in the Energy sector, which gained 1.43%, followed by Communication Services at 1.17%, and Information Technology at 0.77%. Conversely, the

Consumer Staples, Real Estate, Utilities, and Materials sectors experienced declines of -1.23%, -1.36%, -1.38%, and -1.40%, respectively. The Consumer Discretionary sector also saw a modest decrease of -0.24%. Sectors such as Industrials and Health Care reported larger declines of -0.64% and -0.91%, respectively.

Currency Market Updates

In the currency market updates, the dollar index experienced a 0.45% decline, driven by risk-on sentiments influenced by China’s stimulus measures. The USD/JPY pair saw a significant drop due to rising Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yields in response to the Bank of Japan’s somewhat hawkish meeting earlier in the week. However, a rebound in U.S. flash Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) numbers contributed to lifting Treasury yields and helping the dollar recover from its lows. The EUR/USD pair rose by 0.38%, reaching a high of 1.0930 before the U.S. PMI release. The positive impact of the U.S. manufacturing and service sector readings beating forecasts was tempered by a cooling price received index.

Looking ahead, attention in the currency market is shifting to upcoming hard U.S. data ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting next week. Key events include Q4 GDP and jobless claims on Thursday, followed by core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), income, and spending on Friday. Additionally, post-European Central Bank (ECB) meeting events on Thursday may provide hints regarding the timing of the first rate cut, which is currently favored for April. Tokyo CPI data on Friday will also be closely monitored amid speculation about a Bank of Japan rate hike, with April’s BoJ meeting seen as the earliest potential venue for such a move. The article also notes the market’s modest preference for a March Fed rate cut in futures. Overall, the currency market remains dynamic, responding to a combination of economic data releases, central bank meetings, and geopolitical developments.

Picks of the Day Analysis

EUR/USD (4 Hours)

EUR/USD Surges as Intense Greenback Sell-Off and Positive Economic Indicators Overpower Rate Cut Speculations

In a surprising turn of events, the intense sell-off in the greenback allowed EUR/USD to overcome recent weaknesses, pushing past the 1.0900 hurdle and reaching new multi-day highs. The USD Index (DXY) faced headwinds in the risk-friendly environment, dropping below 103.00 despite an uptick in US yields. Speculation shifted away from a Fed rate cut in March, favoring a reduction in May. Contributing to the Euro’s strength were robust PMIs in Germany and the eurozone for January, suggesting a potential soft landing for the regional economy. As the ECB event approaches, market participants are weighing in on potential rate cuts, with debates arising on the timing of the central bank’s decision, further fueled by President Lagarde’s hints at a move during the summer.

Chart EUR/USD by TradingView

On Wednesday, the EUR/USD moved higher, able to reach the upper band of the Bollinger Bands. Currently, the price is moving back lower to reach below the middle band, suggesting a potential downward movement to reach the lower band. Notably, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) maintains its position at 47, signaling a neutral outlook for this currency pair.

Resistance: 1.0890, 1.0954

Support: 1.0814, 1.0745

XAU/USD (4 Hours)

US Dollar Strengthens as Upbeat Data Pushes Gold (XAU/USD) to Weekly Low

In the American session, the US Dollar gained momentum, driving Gold (XAU/USD) down to $2,011.72, marking a fresh weekly low. The surge was fueled by optimistic US economic data, particularly the January Producer Manager Indexes (PMIs) released by S&P Global. Manufacturing output improved to 50.3, surpassing the previous 47.9 and reaching the highest reading in over a year. The Services PMI also exceeded expectations at 52.9, indicating the sharpest business activity growth in seven months. While the Bank of Canada (BoC) left its key rate unchanged at 5%, the statement was slightly more hawkish, reducing the likelihood of an April rate cut. Despite this, stock markets maintained a positive tone, with Wall Street resuming its record rally on better-than-anticipated earnings reports, signaling overall economic health.

Chart XAU/USD by TradingView

On Wednesday, XAU/USD moved lower and was able to reach the lower band of the Bollinger Bands. Currently, the price moving around the lower band suggesting a potential upward movement to reach the middle band. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 43, signaling a neutral outlook for this pair.

Resistance: $2,035, $2,052

Support: $2,010, $1,993

Economic Data

Forex Daily Analysis: 25 Jan 2024

CURRENCIES:

Overview: Gold and Silver Struggle

• Heavyweight US data releases anticipated later this week.
• Latest Fed rate expectations indicate six quarter-point cuts this year.
• Gold and Silver prices experience challenges, but the sell-off is contained.

US Rate Expectations: A Shift in Outlook

• New assessment suggests six quarter-point cuts, with the first expected in May.
• Contrast to the previous week, where seven cuts were forecasted, starting in March.
• The UST 2-year daily yield rises from 4.14% to 4.40%, signaling a moderation in rate cut expectations.

Upcoming US Economic Data Releases

• Three key releases scheduled for the week: US Q4 GDP on Thursday, Durable Goods report, and Core PCE report on Friday.
• These releases closely monitored by the Fed in anticipation of next week’s FOMC meeting.

Gold Price Action and Trading Range

• Gold currently trades within a $2,000/oz. – $2,040/oz. range.
• Series of higher lows provide support, while price action around the 20- and 50-day moving averages remains uncertain.
• Potential break lower could target prior support at $1,987/oz.

Retail Trader Sentiment for Gold

• Retail trader data indicates 59.13% are net-long.
• Changes show a 7.39% decrease in net long positions compared to yesterday.
• Weekly changes indicate a 4% reduction in net long positions.

Silver’s Recovery and Chart Analysis

• Silver rebounds today after a multi-week sell-off from late December.
• Brief dip below $22/oz. on Monday, followed by a recovery, currently trading approximately 1.1% higher.
• The cluster of lows around $20.71 from early October may face renewed pressure.

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STOCK MARKET:

S&P 500 Soars to New Highs:

• The S&P 500 (^GSPC) continues its record-setting rally, surging nearly 0.3% to achieve a new closing high of 4,864.61.
• Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) also gains momentum, rising 0.4%, while Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) experiences a slight dip of about 0.2% following its breakthrough above 38,000 on Monday.

Sector Performances:

Winners:

• Consumer Staples (XLP) and Communications Services (XLC) lead gains in the S&P 500.
• Staples surge over 1%, with notable quarterly results from Procter & Gamble (PG) and Verizon (VZ).

Earnings Impact on Dow:

• Dow faces a setback as 3M (MMM) drops over 10% due to a 2024 profit outlook below Wall Street’s expectations.

Earnings-Driven Moves:

Positive Outlook Lifts Airlines:

• United Airlines (UAL) provides an optimistic 2024 profit forecast, boosting its shares by 5%.
• Positive momentum extends to other airlines, including Delta (DAL) and American Airlines (AAL).

Tech Focus – Netflix (NFLX):

• Netflix (NFLX) takes the spotlight with earnings reported after the bell.
• The company announces a deal with TKO Group’s WWE (TKO), impacting TKO shares positively.

Ongoing Developments:

3M (MMM) Earnings Disappointment:

• Dow affected by a more than 10% drop in 3M (MMM) shares due to a below-expectation 2024 profit outlook.

United Airlines (UAL) Resilience:

• Despite warnings about the Boeing 737 Max 9 planes’ grounding impact, United Airlines (UAL) shares rise with an upbeat 2024 profit forecast.

Netflix (NFLX) Partnership:

• Netflix (NFLX) strikes a deal with TKO Group’s WWE (TKO), leading to a nearly 15% rise in TKO shares.

Outlook and Market Dynamics:

• Earnings in various sectors contribute significantly to market movements.
• Ongoing focus on corporate America’s health and economic indicators.
• Continued attention to tech-driven rallies and sector-specific earnings for market insights.

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After Netflix’s stellar fourth-quarter performance, Nasdaq 100 futures experienced a significant boost in Tuesday evening trading. Fueled by Netflix’s impressive subscriber growth of 13 million, reaching a record 260.8 million, tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 futures rose by 0.28%, contributing to the broader strength of mega-cap tech stocks and propelling the S&P 500 to record highs. While the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures showed a more restrained response, Netflix’s positive performance extended beyond subscriber gains, with an 8.6% surge in extended trading. The article delves into the factors driving Netflix’s success and the resilience of tech stocks amid mixed market performances, offering insights into currency market dynamics and the potential impact on various economies, particularly Japan, as they navigate higher rates and potential rate cuts. The narrative also previews upcoming economic data, emphasizing the market’s focus on the European Central Bank meeting, U.S. Q4 GDP, and core PCE readings for further guidance on Fed and dollar pricing.

Stock Market Updates

In the wake of Netflix’s strong fourth-quarter performance, futures linked to the Nasdaq 100 experienced a notable uptick during Tuesday evening trading. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 futures rose by 0.28%, driven by Netflix’s robust results, which revealed a record-breaking subscriber count of 260.8 million, an increase of over 13 million in the last quarter. The streaming giant’s impressive gains contributed to the broader strength of mega-cap tech stocks in 2024, propelling the S&P 500 to record highs and confirming the onset of a new bull market. However, the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures only edged up by 0.05%, with a marginal increase of 19 points, reflecting a more subdued response possibly influenced by disappointing earnings and guidance from certain blue-chip companies during the main trading session.

Netflix’s positive performance extended beyond subscriber growth, as its shares surged by 8.6% in extended trading. The company not only exceeded revenue expectations but also provided optimistic earnings guidance for the current quarter, surpassing Wall Street forecasts. Analysts attribute Netflix’s success to the strength of its ad-tier business scaling, particularly in the latter part of the previous year, and its efforts to curb password sharing. As traders keep an eye on upcoming economic data, including U.S. manufacturing and services statistics for January and fourth-quarter gross domestic product figures, the broader market dynamics underscore the resilience of tech stocks amid mixed performances in other sectors, as exemplified by the Dow’s slight retreat during the main trading session.

Data by Bloomberg

On Tuesday, the overall market experienced a modest gain of 0.29%. Noteworthy performances were observed in the Consumer Staples (+1.08%), Communication Services (+1.00%), and Information Technology (+0.45%) sectors, contributing positively to the overall uptrend. However, the healthcare sector showed a slight decline with -0.05%, while Industrials (-0.06%), Consumer Discretionary (-0.14%), and Real Estate (-0.51%) sectors exhibited marginal losses, indicating a mixed day for different segments of the market. The Financials (+0.14%), Energy (+0.34%), and Materials (+0.32%) sectors also contributed to the overall positive sentiment with modest gains.

Currency Market Updates

In Tuesday’s currency market updates, the dollar index exhibited a 0.36% increase, recovering from earlier losses spurred by a brief yen rise following a somewhat more hawkish Bank of Japan (BoJ) meeting. The EUR/USD pair broke below key support from the previous week as Treasury yields outpaced bund yields. Despite the BoJ expressing confidence in ending its negative rates policy later in the year and the market leaning towards a 10-basis point June hike to zero, 2-year Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yields only rose to 0.06%. The article highlights how various economies, particularly Japan, can manage higher rates or a gradual retreat from previous rate hikes. The U.S. appears more resilient, having raised rates more than other major central banks, with futures markets not fully pricing in a Federal Reserve rate cut until May.

EUR/USD experienced a 0.45% decline, breaking key technical supports such as the daily cloud top and the 200-day moving average. USD/JPY initially dropped to 146.99 lows in response to the BoJ meeting but found support near the 10-day moving average and 147, leading to a 0.3% increase on the day. The article points out the potential challenge of testing the Ministry of Finance’s desire to prevent the yen from falling below 2022/23 lows at 151.94/92 if U.S. data continues to suggest fewer Fed rate cuts. Meanwhile, sterling fell 0.35%, despite rising Gilt-Treasury yield spreads, and is closely watched ahead of the Bank of England’s meeting on February 1. The focus for the rest of the week includes the European Central Bank meeting, U.S. Q4 GDP, and Friday’s core PCE for further Fed and dollar pricing guidance, with the flash January PMI readings as a key data feature on Wednesday.

Picks of the Day Analysis

EUR/USD (4 Hours)

EUR/USD Hits Multi-Week Lows as Greenback Gains Strength Amid ECB Caution

On Tuesday, the EUR/USD pair extended its decline, reaching fresh multi-week lows in the 1.0820 zone as the selling bias persisted in the risk complex. The USD Index (DXY) soared to a new yearly high of 103.80, driven by a robust buying bias in the greenback, higher US yields, and an overarching risk-off sentiment. The upcoming ECB event is marked by a growing debate between market participants and rate-setters regarding the timing of potential rate cuts, with President Lagarde hinting at a possible move in the summer. Despite inflation surpassing the ECB target, cautious policymaking in the face of weak economic fundamentals continues to limit the Euro’s potential for strengthening.

Chart EUR/USD by TradingView

On Tuesday, the EUR/USD moved lower, able to reach the lower band of the Bollinger Bands. Currently, the price is moving just above the lower band, suggesting a potential upward movement to reach the middle band. Notably, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) maintains its position at 41, signaling a neutral but bearish outlook for this currency pair.

Resistance: 1.0890, 1.0954

Support: 1.0814, 1.0745

XAU/USD (4 Hours)

XAU/USD Holds Steady Above $2,020 Amidst Market Volatility and Economic Indicators

Gold (XAU/USD) maintained a tight trading range just above $2,020 per troy ounce on Tuesday, propelled initially by a weakening US Dollar in response to record highs in the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average. The precious metal’s rally in the first half of the day was influenced by market optimism regarding a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. However, the USD regained strength later in the day as equities faced losses, driven by caution ahead of earnings reports and concerns about macroeconomic events in the coming days. Despite disappointing US data, gold remained resilient, with attention turning to the Bank of Canada’s upcoming monetary policy decision.

Chart XAU/USD by TradingView

On Tuesday, XAU/USD moved higher and was able to reach the upper band of the Bollinger Bands. Currently, the price is moving just above the middle band suggesting a potential upward movement to reach the upper band. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 50, signaling a neutral outlook for this pair.

Resistance: $2,035, $2,052

Support: $2,010, $1,993

Economic Data